Global Economic Daily - 09/30/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY Global Equities

• Stocks Rally for the Week on Fed Rate-Cut Optimism
• European Shares Close at Record High; Luxary Giants Rally on China Stimulus

Global Fixed Income

• Treasury Yields Ease After Tame Inflation Reading
• Canada’s High-Yield Bond Market is Suddenly the Hottest in Years

Currencies

• US Dollar Declines as PCE Falls, Markets Confident of Larger November Cut
• EUR/USD Pares Losses as US Dollar Sinks After Soft US PCE Inflation

Energy

• WTI Houston Crude Prices Gain Prominence as U.S. Oil Exports Jump
• Crude Oil Has a Tough Week

Metals

• Gold Price Forecast: Declines After Record High, Bearish Reversal in Process
• Silver Continues to See Upward Momentum

Global Politics/News

• Key Fed Inflation Gauge at 2.2% in August, Lower Than Expected
• Trump Holds Meeting With Ukrainian President Zelensky

Relevant Government Reports

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

EIA Summary

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: The young man knows the rules, but the old man knows the exceptions. – Dr. Seuss

Equities: Stocks were mixed to end the week but overall lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to a fresh record on Friday as traders digested new data that pointed to further progress in lowering inflation. Wall Street also posted three straight positive weeks. The 30-stock Dow added 137.89 points ending at 42,313.00. The blue-chip average posted a closing record and reached an all-time high during the session. The S&P 500 ticked down 7.20 points to 5,738.17, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 106.91 points to end at 20,008.62. A 2% decline in Nvidia weighed on the technology-heavy index. The major averages each extended their gains to a third week, with the S&P 500 and the Dow rising about 0.6% for the period. The Nasdaq advanced nearly 1% during the week. Traders received encouraging inflation data that could give the central bank more reason to confidently cut interest rates further. August’s personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation — increased 0.1%, matching expectations from economists polled by Dow Jones. PCE increased 2.2% at an annualized pace, below the 2.3% forecast. Policymakers and investors alike are hoping for persistent cooling in monthly inflation figures, allowing for continued easing of borrowing costs that will ease the strain on corporate and household balance sheets. Wall Street is coming off a winning session, after a batch of data assured investors of the strength of the U.S. economy. Initial jobless claims fell more than expected in the latest week, indicating a strong labor market, while the final reading of second-quarter gross domestic product came in at a robust 3%. Asian and European stock indexes were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 Thursday hit a record high, while the Nasdaq stock index scored a nine-week high. China’s aggressive economic stimulus moves this week remain near the front burner of the marketplace. More stimulus from Chinese government officials is likely. China’s stock markets have rallied on this week’s major economic moves. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold prices are near steady in early U.S. trading Friday and not far below Thursday’s record high. Some mild profit taking is featured following a key U.S. inflation report that contained no big surprises to significantly move markets. Gold and silver prices did modestly up-tick following the inflation data, which was just slightly tamer than expected. The just-released U.S. data point of the week is this morning’s personal income and outlays report for August and its inflation indexes that are said to be favored by the Federal Reserve. The PCE price index came in at up 2.2%, year-on-year, and was seen coming in at up 2.3% and compares to up 2.5% in the July report. The core PCE came in up 2.7% annually, in line with market expectations and compares to up 2.6% in the July report. The markets did not react strongly to the numbers. The Israel-Hezbollah military conflict has escalated recently, with the Israel telling its military to prepare for a possible ground invasion of Lebanon, after recent heavy air bombardments. This situation is keeping safe-haven bids in gold and silver and will likely get worse before it gets better. Technically, December gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,600.00. December silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.