Global Economic Daily - 12/24/2024
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Quote of the Day: Wonder is the feeling of the philosopher, and philosophy begins in wonder. – Plato
Equities: Stocks rose on Monday to start a holiday-shortened trading week as the continuous strength in technology names helped the broader market. The S&P 500 gained 43.22 points to 5,974.07. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 214.02 points to 21,503.17, as Tesla and Meta Platforms added more than 2% and Nvidia climbed more than 3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased earlier losses and ended the day 66.69 points higher to 42,906.95. Trading was thin on Monday and it is expected to remain muted during the week. The New York Stock Exchange closes early Tuesday for Christmas Eve at 1 p.m. ET, and the market is shut on Christmas Day. Weak economic data seemed to sour the sentiment a bit earlier in the session. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for December fell to 104.7, its lowest level since September and below a Dow Jones estimate of 113.0. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods — generally big-ticket items such as aircraft, appliances and computers — fell 1.1% in November, the largest month-over-month drop since June. The blue-chip Dow declined more than 300 points at one point Monday after the disappointing data. The market just came off a roller-coaster ride that saw the blue-chip Dow suffer a 10-day losing streak, its longest since 1974. The Dow tumbled 1,100 points Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously projected. A cooler-than-expected inflation reading at the end of the week helped stocks recoup some of the losses. Month to date, the 30-stock Dow is down 4.5% in December, while the S&P 500 is off nearly 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked the downtrend, rising 2.8% this month. Investors have been reassured that federal agencies will stay open into the new year after President Joe Biden signed a funding bill Saturday that averted a government shutdown. The bill funds federal agencies at current levels for the next three months. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are now both back above the 14, 21 day moving average.
Metals: Gold prices are lower in quieter, pre-holiday midday U.S. trading Monday. The yellow metal is being pushed down by solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and an uptick in U.S. Treasury yields to start a holiday-shortened trading week. Silver prices are higher on short covering in the futures market. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. It’s likely to be a quieter trading week in all the markets as the Christmas holiday falls on Wednesday. The U.S. marketplace has a bit more risk appetite early this week after last Friday’s U.S. PCE inflation data came in a bit cooler than expected following the Fed’s hawkish pivot on future U.S. monetary policy at last week’s FOMC meeting. Also, the U.S. stock and financial markets were relieved the U.S. Congress averted a federal government shutdown late last week and agreed to a continuing resolution to keep the government funded until March. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and not far below last week’s two-year high. Nymex crude oil futures prices are down and trading around $68.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.562%. Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $2,565.00. March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $27.39. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and sliver are both now below the 14, 21 day moving average.
DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.