Global Economic Daily - 12/27/2024
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Quote of the Day: ‘Tis not enough to help the feeble up, but to support them after. – Williams Shakespeare
Equities: Stocks were mixed the day after Christmas. The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased earlier losses and squeezed out a small gain in thin trading Thursday after the market’s strong back-to-back gains at the start of the holiday week. The blue-chip Dow closed the day 28.77 points higher to 43,325.80 after losing about 182 points earlier in the session. The S&P 500 dipped just 2.45 points to 6,037.59. The Nasdaq 100 also ended the day slightly lower, declining less than 29.34 points to 21,768.31. The market was closed on Wednesday for Christmas Day. Thursday’s action came after a solid Christmas Eve for the S&P 500. The benchmark’s 1.1% gain on Tuesday marked its best Christmas Eve performance since 1974, according to Bespoke. So far this week, the S&P 500 is up 1.8%, while the Dow has gained 1.1%. The strong rally in megacap tech earlier in the week lifted the Nasdaq 2.3% week to date. Investors were enthusiastic about the so-called Santa Claus rally, which occurs in the last five trading days of the year and the first two in January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average return of 1.3% during this period, widely outpacing the market’s average seven-day return of 0.3%, according to LPL Financial. Thursday marks the second day of the Santa rall. On the data front, jobless claims for the week ended Dec. 21 totaled 219,000, compared to the 225,000 consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. However, continuing claims, or recurring applications for unemployment benefits, rose to 1.91 million, reaching the highest level since Nov. 13, 2021. Month to date, the S&P 500 is up 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has rallied 4.2%, due to the strong gains in Tesla, Apple and Alphabet. The blue-chip Dow, however, is down about 3.5%, on track for its worst month since April. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Dow and S&P are now both back above the 14, 21 day moving average.
Metals: Gold and silver prices are modestly up in subdued early U.S. trading Thursday. It’s likely to be another quiet U.S. trading session in most markets following the Christmas holiday Wednesday. Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins. The day after the Christmas holiday is typically one of the quietest, lowest-volume trading days for the stock market and other markets. In overnight news, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, but warned that less household and business confidence, along with troubles in the property sector, would keep growth constrained. Recent policy easing and near-term export strength have the World Bank raising China’s GDP growth forecast to 4.9% this year, up from its June forecast of up 4.8%. Economic growth for 2025 is expected to fall to 4.5%. The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $70.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.629%. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday is light and includes the weekly jobless claims report. Technically, February gold futures bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $2,565.00. March silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $31.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the August low of $27.39. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and sliver are both now below the 14, 21 day moving average.
DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed
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