Global Economic Daily - 25/03/2024

NEWS AND MARKET COMMENTARY Global Equities

• Dow Slides, Nasdaq Closes at Record to Cap Winning Week
• European Stocks Close Slightly Higher, Extending Record; Phoenix Group Shares Up 8%

Global Fixed Income

• 2-Year Treasury Yield Slips Below 4.6% as Fed This Week Signals Lower Rates Ahead
• Treasury Yields Snapshot

Currencies

• Dollar Strengthens After Big Shift in Global Rate Outlook
• EUR/USD Extends Into a Two-Way Plunge, Tumbles Into 1.0800

Energy

• Russia Crude Oil Refining Drops to 10-Month Low After Ukraine Drone Attacks
• Crude Oil Continues to See Upward Pressures

Metals

• Gold Price Retreats, But Bullish Wedge Breakout Holds Promise
• Silver Continues to See Volatile Movement

Global Politics/News

• Fed Chair Powell is Scheduled to Give Opening Remarks at a ‘Fed Listening’ Event
• Russia Attacks Ukrainian Electrical Power Facilities 

World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)

USDA Agency Reports

Producer Price Index (PPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

U.S. Treasury Report

Fed Report

EIA Reports

  EIA Summary 

Financial

Closing Commentary

Quote of the Day: Success is the sum of small efforts – repeated day in and day out. – Robert Collier

Equities: Stocks fell on Friday but ended the week as overall winners. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped on Friday, but clinched its best week of the year after back-to-back record-setting sessions. The Dow dipped 305.47 points to close at 39,475.90. The S&P 500 inched lower by 7.35 points to end at 5,234.18. The Nasdaq 100 fell 19.06 points and closed at 18,339.44. All three major averages notched healthy gains this week, with the S&P 500 rising about 2.3%. The Dow was up just shy of 2% for its best week since December. The Nasdaq is the outperformer of the three, jumping nearly 2.9%. One reason for the market optimism stems from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank left rates unchanged, and commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced that cuts are coming despite a recent bout of hot inflation readings that led some investors to fear a postponed easing timeline. The major indexes closed at record levels on Thursday for a second day, and hit all-time intraday highs. Thursday was the fourth straight winning session for the three indexes, with the Dow finishing close to the 40,000 level. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK - The Dow and S&P are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Crude Oil: Oil prices slipped on Friday and were flat on the week as the possibility of a ceasefire in Gaza weakened crude benchmarks, while the war in Europe and shrinking U.S. rig count cushioned the fall. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Thursday he believed talks in Qatar could reach a Gaza ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Blinken met Arab foreign ministers and Egypt's President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi in Cairo as negotiators in Qatar centred on a truce of about six weeks. While a possible ceasefire meant crude might move more freely globally, a lower U.S. oil rig count and the potential for easing U.S. interest rates helped support prices. The conflict in Eastern Europe also kept oil prices from moving lower. Russia launched the largest missile and drone attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure of the war to date on Friday, hitting the country's largest dam and causing blackouts in several regions, Kyiv said. However, chatter has emerged within the market that Russia would further discount its barrels in light of the escalation. A steeper discount could make Russian crude more attractive to international buyers. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – The Crude is above the 14, 21 day moving average.

Metals: Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Friday, on profit taking by the shorter-term futures traders after this week’s gains that pushed gold to a record high and silver to a 3.5-month peak. A strong rally in the U.S. dollar index late this week is a significantly bearish outside-market element for the precious metals. Technically, the gold futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but appear to have run out of gas for the near term. A four-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in April futures above solid resistance at the record high of $2,225.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $2,149.20. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage but have also run out of gas. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $26.575. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.50. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – Gold and silver are above the 14, 21 day moving average.

DISCLAIMER: The Information and data contained herein was obtained from sources deemed reliable. The accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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