Global Growth or 'Gridlock'? An Up-Close Look in the Context of Madagascar and the World

By Shira Garbis

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) this year released the 2023/2024 Human Development Report, which takes a global look at trends in countries’ Human Development Index (HDI) values.

Introduced in 1990, the HDI emerged as a response to the growing consensus that development encompasses more than just economic growth. The HDI aims to capture the multifaceted nature of development, emphasising “the richness of human life, rather than simply the richness of the economy.”(1) It evaluates three dimensions of human development, a long and healthy life (measured through life expectancy), education (measured through average and expected years of schooling), and a decent standard of living (measured through gross national income per capita).(2)

Global Growth at a Glance

Since 1999, the Global HDI value (an aggregation of individual country HDI values) has been steadily climbing. Despite temporary dips from large-scale events like the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall trend of the Global HDI in the 21st century shows steady growth. A story of progress can be reflected over the past 23 years where prevalence of undernourishment decreased, the gender inequality gap narrowed, and gross national income per capita grew by 56%.(3)

But What About Madagascar?

Madagascar’s current HDI value is 0.487 (out of a possible 1.00), placing it in the HDI’s ‘low human development’ category. This ranks the country 177th out 193 nations worldwide.(4) A simple snapshot however, does not convey the whole story. 

In 1999, Madagascar’s HDI was 0.431, and since then it has steadily increased. Over the course of two decades, the country’s life expectancy has jumped from 57 to 65, and children’s expected years of schooling have increased from 7.6 to 9.9. By 2018, the country’s HDI had grown by more than 12%.(5)

Like many countries, Madagascar faced major challenges due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The country underwent an economic recession that pushed approximately 1.8 million more people below the poverty line(6) and caused a nearly one-year decrease in the country’s life expectancy.(7)

Despite these setbacks, the 2022 increase in Madagascar’s HDI suggests that the country may be back to a trajectory of growth and development. This is supported by promising trends presented in the 2023/2024 report. The next Global HDI value is projected to be at a record high, with the UNDP predicting record-breaking growth across all three dimensions of human development.(8)

There is a caveat however, applying broad global development trends to individual countries can be misleading. Specifically, the growth trajectory seen in the Global HDI overlooks a critical predicament that the UNDP has coined ‘global gridlock’. But what exactly does this mean?

An Up-Close Look at Global Growth

The 2023/2024 report highlights a new and “disturbing divergence” amongst countries. After 20 years of consistent progress toward closing the gap between the HDI values of ‘very high’ and ‘low’ HDI countries, the trend has reversed.  For the first time since 1990, the UNDP projects an increasing inequality between the countries in these two categories.(9)

Notably, the UNDP predicts that when 2023 HDI values are published, they will reveal a split reality.  All Organisation for Economic Development (OECD) countries, an international organisation with members  that include countries like Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States, are projected to recover back to their pre-pandemic HDI values, while only one-half of the world’s least developed countries are predicted to do so. Yet, this divergence is hidden under the façade of a globally increasing HDI. Thus, an up-close look is needed to shatter the illusion of equitable, global growth and gain a deeper understanding of the root causes of this issue.

This is where global gridlock comes into play. The world is currently facing numerous overlapping and intensifying challenges, including  climate change, political polarisation and, international violent conflict. The sheer scale of these issues transcends national institutions and unilateral action. Nevertheless, a nationally siloed approach to problem-solving is how the world is currently operating.

The UNDP maintains that it is precisely this lack of international cooperation that has thrown us into global gridlock. By failing to pool resources and coordinate efforts to reach collective goals and overcome shared challenges, the world is stymying global development. Furthermore, it is this lack of international cooperation that is driving a wedge in development trends between ‘very high’ and ‘low’ HDI countries.

So, What Now?

The UNDP emphasises that breaking the global gridlock requires us to reimagine cooperation, and by extension, development. Tackling the biggest issues of our day requires coordinated efforts that are “people-centred, co-owned and future-oriented.”(10) SEED seeks to embody this ethos through Project Miatrika, a community-driven response to food insecurity and malnutrition that is rooted in principles of recovery and resilience. 

Project Miatrika works with 136 communities across the Anosy region of southern Madagascar where intensifying effects of climate change are being felt. More than five years of failed rains have culminated in Madagascar’s most severe drought in 40 years, pushing the country to the brink of what the UNDP warns could be the “world’s first climate-induced famine.”(11)

These challenges have been amplified by pest infestations, cyclone activity, and the aftershocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, collectively exacerbating a food security crisis in the region. As of January 2024, 1.31 million people across the country’s south were experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity.(12) Furthermore, a projection of 459,000 children under five are expected to experience elevated levels of acute malnutrition by September 2024.(13)

Project Miatrika takes a collaborative approach to these challenges, working alongside communities, health centres, medical staff, and caregivers to improve the health status of children in Anosy holistically and sustainably.

People Centred, Co-Owned, Future-Oriented

Reflecting on the issue of global gridlock and diverging development trajectories, it remains premature to predict Madagascar’s HDI trajectory. In short, growth equating to recovery cannot yet be determined. Regardless, the country is currently grappling with food insecurity, a multifaceted problem at the intersection of climate change, the economy, and public health. Given the complexity and widespread impact of this challenge, in the words of UNDP, a “people-centred, co-owned, and future-oriented” response is imperative.(14)

Harnessing the strength and breadth of local knowledge, Project Miatrika works with key actors ranging from the National Office of Nutrition to community healthcare workers and caregivers. This concerted effort aims to support communities’ immediate recovery while creating long-term resilience, taking a step toward overcoming global gridlock.