Global Temperature Rise by Country (2022-2100)

As discussions around climate change intensify, many scientific authorities, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emphasize the necessity of limiting global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is vital to recognize that this warming will not be uniform across the globe due to various factors such as geography, ocean currents, weather patterns, and human activities. To shed light on this uneven warming, we examine data from Berkeley Earth and utilize visualizations created in collaboration with the National Public Utilities Council.

Current State of Warming (2022)

As of 2022, the global average national warming (excluding oceans) is approximately 1.81°C above the 1850-1900 baseline. The warming trends differ significantly by region:

• Mongolia: 2.54°C warming (highest)
• Bangladesh: 1.1°C warming (lowest)

The warming is notably more pronounced in the Global North, largely due to Arctic amplification—a phenomenon where the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet due to feedback loops. As the ice cover diminishes, it reduces the Earth’s albedo effect, leading to further heat absorption and exacerbating warming.

Projected Warming in 2050 and 2100

2050 Projections

Looking towards 2050, the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5 scenario predicts an average national warming of 2.75°C above the historical baseline. Specific country projections include:

• Mongolia: 3.76°C (most substantial warming)
• New Zealand: 2.02°C (mildest warming)

Risks Associated with 2050 Projections:

• Increased Extreme Weather: A rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation and related flooding, will occur.
• Biodiversity Loss: Nearly all ecosystems—terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine—will face high risks of biodiversity loss.
• Sea Level Rise: Accelerated sea level rise threatens coastal cities, leading to potential mass displacement.

2100 Projections

By 2100, average national warming under the SSP2-4.5 scenario is expected to reach 3.80°C. This increase poses significant risks, with over 55 countries projected to exceed 4°C of warming compared to the pre-industrial average, and nearly 100 countries predicted to experience warming above 3.5°C.

Risks Associated with 2100 Projections:

• Extinction Risks: Between 3% and 39% of terrestrial species face very high risks of extinction.
• Water Scarcity: Water scarcity will significantly affect urban areas, agriculture, and hydroelectric power plants. About 10% of the world’s land area may experience extreme fluctuations in river flows.
• Food Security Threats: Droughts, floods, and heatwaves will jeopardize global food production and accessibility, leading to substantial food security and nutritional stability challenges.

The projected temperature rise by country emphasizes the urgency for global climate action. The disparities in warming highlight the need for tailored mitigation strategies that consider the unique vulnerabilities and circumstances of different regions. As we approach critical milestones in climate negotiations, understanding these trends will be essential for informing policy decisions and fostering international collaboration to address climate change effectively.