Going through Changes...

When Bowie first sang the lyrics “My time was running wild a million dead-end streets” he was unlikely having a premonition of a Boris Johnson Government. But a Government plagued by factionalism, indecisiveness and an inability to execute seems a good fit.

As Brexit creeps closer and the impact of COVID crystallises, realism is setting in outside of Government that coherent action and sensibility is required. Number 10 is making changes but is it really changing?

By Woolf Thomson Jones

Number 10 Reset

The Boris Johnson Government came to power on a promise to level up regions of the country that had been neglected by London. He promised a new one nation conservatism that governed in the interests of the whole country and one that delivered Brexit.

That target has been hampered by the impact of COVID but more so by the Government’s inability to deliver on its promises throughout the crisis. While it is clearly an impossible task to get everything right during a pandemic - and the Government has made good strides on areas such as testing - the crisis itself is more indicative of the style of government Westminster is grappling with: factionalised, centralised, indecisive and arrogant.

For people outside Government – MPs, businesses, the general public – that is a heady mix which has built significant frustration and raised alarm bells. It has resulted in poor communication and delivery on a variety of policies that are imperative to the future of Britain and its economy, from a Brexit deal to COVID restrictions. Whether you look at the never-ending mix of COVID restrictions and rules or lobby groups, such as the Road Haulage Association’s criticism of Brexit preparations, the Government has struggled for consistency and delivery.

The lack of clarity and frustration has swept beyond Government and built a general lack of trust in what Government say, do or intend to deliver. It should be of concern when prominent MPs from your own benches, including Sir Graham Brady Chair of the influential 1922 Committee, publicly doubt your leadership credentials and policymaking. This still clearer with today’s rebellion over the new COVID Tier system

It is clear this has to change. Despite often successful messaging from Government, that has no doubt received top marks in a focus group somewhere, the actions of Government and the substance of what it does is what really counts. The centralising force of No.10 has created a vacuum of decisive or solid policymaking outside Downing Street through this crisis with innumerable industries frustrated by a lack of direction and action within their respective satellite Departments. That is abundantly clear when you look at the listless game of policy Twister BEIS, Transport and Education have had to play in creating consistent or workable policy to get businesses or schools or universities open and trains running in spite of Public Health Guidance.

MPs have become more forthright in their views with various rebellions and interest groups forming on a number of areas, from China to COVID Recovery, to little or no fight from Government – the latest economic impact assessment reports a prime example of the ineffectiveness of No 10 politicking. Most newspapers have roundly criticised the Government’s ability to execute and put forward a credible strategy through this pandemic and Boris Johnson has had his poll lead over Keir Starmer and Labour eaten into by a series of unnecessary ‘scandals’.

There is a need, apparently recognised in Government, to move away from infighting towards clear communication on the important issues facing the nation. Relationships with MPs, businesses and others have been fractious and require a reset. It has become an open goal for Labour. Change is supposed to be coming.

The brilliantly ironic comms shambles surrounding the promotion then sacking of the Government Head of Communications, Lee Cain, was meant to be the start. Followed by Dominic Cummings, agitator in chief and Chief of Staff, also leaving No. 10. Though he is still said to be working from home, serving his notice which may account for the ongoing issues the Government is facing.

This exodus – with other prominent members of Team Dom like Cleo Watson also leaving – has been seen as the breaking of the Vote Leave cabal, but that attachment to the old culture war is an unhelpful characterisation. Their time in Government has been marked by poor communications and political conflict and capital-heavy (political and financial) policymaking, beyond any relevance to their Brexit allegiances. The departure of these figures, alongside other resignations, could herald the far greater prize of certainty, solidity and support. It remains to be seen if that translates into tangible action from Government and key Departments on real issues.

For everyone inside and outside of Government, the arrival of more level-headed communications and policy specialists is a welcome signal towards a softer way of governing. A form of government that doesn’t see conflict as the only route forward. For businesses, you would expect a clearer communication of intention across Government and the adherence to some form of strategy, where even the Treasury has been beset by u-turns and ‘rabbit out of the hat’ announcements. We are edging closer to Brexit without a deal and without a clear plan. Politically this does not appear to be a concern issue, but it is concerning for the business community and needs addressing in this so called ‘reset’.

The latest economic figures show a country on track to economic recovery after a torrid year with COVID and Cummings. With both being shown the door in the near future, a more certain, professional and productive style of government beckons.

March 2021

Throughout recent dealings with Government and as can be picked up through recent Government communications and guidance, the Government appears to be focussing on March or Spring as the inflexion point where the nation can return to normality, with a vaccine and release of stringent social measures. It is nominal but it provides some light at the end of the tunnel.

In terms of the operation of Westminster and Government, it is unlikely to make a marked change. The current Government refrain that “we are busy dealing with COVID” is only to be superseded by dealing with the impact of COVID. Government and Departmental blockages are likely to remain with the dual impact of Brexit and COVID. Though the potential for depressurisation could bring pertinent and outstanding issues back to the fore, something that we have already seen with the Gambling Act Review.

Parliament

Parliament has been a strange place of late with limited members present in the chamber, bars closed and, for a significant part of the COVID crisis, sidelined by the emergency powers provided to the Government, pushed to legislative irrelevance without major bills and an insurmountable Conservative majority. The power and the buzz had disappeared, and focus remained solely on the Government.

However, the legislature has regained its spirit in recent months with ever-growing forensic opposition to the Government, select committees and its own benches on policy surrounding the COVID healthcare response, economic interventions, Brexit, China, education and business.

As scepticism has grown over the Government’s ability to execute on policy, so too has the space for criticism and opposition on policies. This is the factionalism outside number 10, the subdivision of the Conservative party. There are a significant number of ‘Research Groups’ now on the backbenches within the Tory party, with influential leaders. It is unusual with such a large majority, to have such organised opposition within its own benches, especially with such force. You have a Northern Research Group, a Common Sense Group, COVID Recovery Group, a China Research Group and the ever-present European Research Group. That's a lot of groups. Each of these, many containing new 2019 intake MPs, are pushing policy positions often contrary to Government.

Select Committees have assumed a significant role in the scrutiny of Government throughout this pandemic across Departments, with most now running COVID response inquiries. Their and their chairs’ inputs since March have been formative and most have really presented the most pertinent and well-constructed examinations of Government policy, whether that is on test and trace, business support or return to schools. It is clear the system’s role will only grow in the aftermath as inquiries begin to look under the hood of the Government COVID response.

The shift of Opposition Leadership from Corbyn to Starmer has changed the nature of Opposition and brought a form of examination Boris Johnson has struggled with. It is well-documented that the weekly PMQs sessions have become a frustration for Johnson with limited MP support in the chamber and a forensic attention to detail on the other side of the House. It has regularly exposed Johnson and his Government on their COVID response strategy. He is also supported by a strong Shadow Cabinet that pose an acceptable alternative to this Government. Though, beyond Westminster, Sir Keir Starmer and his team still lag on cut through and recent big policy changes, like the support for national lockdown before Johnson, have largely fell on deaf ears. It should remain a concern that, despite how far we are from the next General Election, the other side of the House has a presentable and credible leader in Starmer.

The Role of Business

Boris Johnson’s famous “fuck business” line from 2018 has always been largely ridiculed but never substantiated, until he came to power. Johnson, since coming to office, has been much maligned for his efforts with business leaders, being criticised for not being bothered or trying to understand the country’s job and wealth creators. The position is uncomfortably at odds with traditional conservatism that much of the party aligns with.

The Government’s recent actions, Johnson pulling out of the CBI conference at the last minute or Minister for Business Paul Scully’s disastrous call with retail leaders, have only continued to personify the infamous line. The Times’ Jamie Nimmo, recently referred to this as “Fuck Business 2.0”. As with much of the Government’s policymaking, that approach does not appear to be born out of genuine strategy, but simply an inability to deliver or engage and communicate on the detail. Again, change is clearly needed, Sunak has provided significant ‘air cover’ on economic issues with his support for businesses and much hope is being pinned on Andrew Griffith MP returning to a Government advisory role on business, but they cannot do it alone.

With Brexit approaching and an economic recovery to marshal, businesses will need to play a central role in rebuilding the country and growing the economy post-Brexit. In any reset of terms, you would expect the relationship with business being renovated to be a top priority.

While absence of effective and relevant representation within Government for business continues, business will need to branch out. There are effective and knowledgeable MPs across the House challenging current policy. With the Opposition, backbench research groups and the consistent scrutiny of the select committees, the House of Commons is playing a central role in examining the Government’s policies and each sector has a natural constituency within the House. Support for business can be found across the House. If the political stagnation continues in Departments such as Business and elsewhere, building further and wider political pressure and support within the House will be vital.

Treasury Prospects

Down the road from No.10 in No.11 with Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, a much rosier picture has been painted. With a large and effective communications and digital branding team, Sunak has remained largely unscathed by the myriad of Government scraps. As the money man, Sunak has provided the funding to the considerable Government support schemes since March and put forward a clear narrative of support, neatly striking the balance on the need to move forward, recover and not save every job.

However, it should not escape the eagle-eyed that he has had a number of mini budgets in place of an actual budget which will now not happen. His Spending review only served to further wallop the can down the road announcing more spending and letting the Office for Budget Responsibility do the dirty work on the country’s actual economic prospects, which remain bleak. Under the hood, the content of each intervention from the Chancellor represent considerable u-turns, whether that is the extension of furlough to March or the rejigging of the job support scheme (JSS Closed) for businesses impacted by COVID which is now defunct or superseded by the other u-turn. For all the strife, sectoral arguing and Opposition ‘carping’, furlough has just never ended. They are costly wranglings, politically and economically, as they build on the general picture of a Government without a plan.

That said, for Sunak, that doesn’t appear to cut through as he continues to provide the support. But, he has made it clear that the support will end and some may assume his reputational golden moment too. It is then that we will surely see the harder decisions and the real management of issues.

As March, the Government’s apparent target for normality, appears on the horizon No.11 will have to grapple with removing job support and managing unemployment. Still further, the Chancellor will have to pay for it all. The need not to repeat the reputational travails of austerity are clear, which pushes the solutions towards tax changes. The likely targeting of traditional Tory voters with new measures - whether they are alterations to the triple lock, Capital Gains Tax increases or raising corporation tax - will be a considerable tussle within the party.

So too, will the micro clear up of the Treasury’s high-level, untargeted economic support. It is clearly difficult to implement targeted regimes of support for sectors and individuals at short notice, but the system has been liable to fraud. More significantly, with the Government’s first change of heart in this area being to fully underwrite Bounce Back Loans, there is likely to be a significant amount of bad loans, appearing just as banks had reduced risk profiles, offloading their last batch of non-performing loans from 2008.

HM Treasury does however remain a functional Department, unlike others. All the more admirable amongst the back and forth of this Government. There are bigger challenges than the pandemic ahead in the ‘clean up’. The Chancellor’s political ear has served him well to date and that ability to listen, support and be creative in his solutions are evidence enough of the value of interaction with Treasury and how they have led this crisis to date.

Final Word

Communications and action have been the Government’s biggest issue to date, they have bred confusion, mistrust and scepticism amongst the general public and in Parliament. The Government has left a vacuum that has allowed significant opposition to form within its own party.

There is a significant body of Conservatives that are prepared to rebel across a number of policy areas. Factionalism has expanded from within Number 10 to Parliament. Further disruption and delay in policy outside the COVID emergency at a Government level is to be expected. Businesses would do well to widen their base of political understanding and relationships to convey their message; Government is often not listening or busy elsewhere.

The Government needs an actual reset, not one that’s just briefed to the papers, to move towards a softer touch and a clear strategic approach to regain control of its party and Parliament. As Bowie says in Changes – “turn and face the strain”.