Good COP, Bad COP? The Truth about the Glasgow Climate Summit and Pact.

The science is clear: humanity is on a run-away train of greenhouse gas emissions that promises to bring unprecedented and irreversible changes to the planet by 2050. For many Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and poorer countries there is much less time. Their economies, and in some cases their continued existence, is already under siege by the effects of climate change, and would reach a breaking point by 2030. So, when the diplomatic teams and world leaders of almost every country gathered at Glasgow for the two-week climate summit to chart the way forward on climate action, there were tremendous expectations.

There was a palpable hope of transformative change and strong decisive action being taken by all world leaders towards a sustainable future for everyone. There was optimism that national interest would be be placed second to the security of all nations. Of course, this was not to be; not because of the cowardice of leadership but because the process is not conducive to radical change. Climate negotiations are multi-year in nature and require unanimous agreement by all States for decisions to be adopted. Securing the consensus of 198 countries is only possible through compromise and concessions. Therefore, at its best, the final written agreement could only contain, incremental progress in the areas of climate change mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, and transparency.

Considering that each country seeks its own interest informed by its unique national circumstances and the fact that all countries must agree or the entire package of provisions fails, then it is clear that the room for agreement is narrow. For example: In responding to a last-minute amendment to the final text proposed by China and India to soften the provisions on phasing out coal power, Lia Nicholson, the lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States(AOSIS), said the group “will accept the text as gaveled, as it stands, with the clear understanding that this dialogue is a key step towards the creation of a loss and damage finance facility.” Representative of the Marshall Islands, Tina Stege, noted "We accept this change with the greatest reluctance. We do so only, and I really want to stress only, because there are critical elements of this package that people in my country need as a lifeline for their future." Trade-offs and incremental shifts are the true nature of consensus-building and multilateralism.

The final Glasgow Climate Pact is a mixed bag:

1. For the first time, a UN approved text targets coal - the most polluting fossil fuel - although the language is not as decisive as the first draft text suggested. Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International, said: “It’s meek, it’s weak and the 1.5C goal is only just alive, but a signal has been sent that the era of coal is ending. And that matters.".
2. The Pact calls on countries to submit updated national plans for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to in line with the 1.5C goal "by 2022" instead of the 2025 deadline originally listed in the Paris Agreement. Although this was largely received as 'kicking the can down the road', it actually speeds up the revision process and makes achieving 1.5C more likely.
3. Adaptation finance was promised to double "from 2019 levels by 2025", a welcome addition, and a work-programme was established to set-up a global goal for adaptation.
4. The rising cost of 'loss and damage' was acknowledged and there was agreement to fund the Santiago Network, a body that aims to build technical expertise on dealing with loss and damage, such as helping countries consider how to move communities away from threatened shorelines. However, many islands facing existential threat today was disappointed in the failure to establish a clear loss and damage fund and mechanism for developing countries to be compensated for climate damage largely attributed to developed country emissions.
5. Fundamental norms related to carbon markets were established, making the Paris Agreement fully operational. However many have expressed concern that the market-based solution may be counterproductive and is far from perfect.
6. The Enhanced Transparency Framework negotiations for the 'Paris Rulebook' was completed, providing agreed upon tables and formats to account and report for targets and emissions. Transparency has been a critical, but often overlooked issue, as the emphasis has focused on setting reductions targets but not how to measure progress towards these targets. Settling this issue was a great step forward.

These incremental steps are not enough to meet the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement. However, Glasgow was never going to be the endpoint in the process for tackling the climate crisis. United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, summed it up in a video statement released at the close of the summit: " “It is an important step but is not enough. We must accelerate climate action to keep alive the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees...It is time to go into 'emergency mode'; ending fossil fuel subsidies, phasing out coal, putting a price on carbon, protecting vulnerable communities, and delivering the $100 billion climate finance commitment...We did not achieve these goals at this conference. But we have some building blocks for progress.".

The measure of the success of the summit is not only in the final text. It is also reflected in the partnerships, funds and declarations made between governments, cities, civil society, companies and financial institutions during the Conference. In this regard, there were many bright-spots that bolster hope. These include:

1. Methane: Over 100 countries, representing 70% of the global economy and over 50% of global methane emissions signed up to the US and EU led "Global Methane Pledge" to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2050. Global Philanthropies have committed over US$300 million to supporting signatories, and it is expected that this would shave off 0.2C of warming.
2. Forests: Over 140 countries, representing over 90% of the Earth's forest have pledged to halt and reverse deforestation and land degradation by 2030. Brazil, home of the Amazon Rainforest signed on, and the Bezos Earth Fund pledged US$1 billion towards landscape restoration specifically in Africa.
3. Coal: Despite the diluted language in the Glasgow Pact on the subject dozens of countries, sub-national governments, and financial institutions have put forward plans to consign coal to history. Twenty-three countries, including five of the world's top-twenty coal uses have pledged to completely phase-out the use of coal. Over 40 countries committed to transitioning from 'unabated coal' to clean energy. The Climate Investment Fund launched a US$2.5 billion pilot project to advance the just transition away from coal to clean energy in India, South Africa, Indonesia and the Philippines.
4. Finance of Fossil Fuels: Almost 40 governments and banks vowed to stop the public finance of unabated oil and gas projects by the end of 2022. Collectively, this could shift an estimated $17.8bn a year in public support out of fossil fuels and into the clean energy transition. Almost a dozen governments signed up to an the "Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance" co-led by Costa Rica and Denmark to cease new oil and gas development and phase out existing production.
5. US-China Partnership: The United States and China, the world’s top emitters of greenhouse gases, agreed to boost cooperation over the next decade in the areas of increasing the use of renewable energy, developing regulatory frameworks, and deploying technologies such as carbon capture. 
6. Adaptation funding: Sixteen countries collectively pledged over US$350 million towards the Adaptation Fund aimed at supporting the world's most vulnerable populations. First time donors, the United States and Canada, along with the EU who contributed over US$100 million on its own, shattered the fund raising record with a figure 3 times larger than last years.
7. Private Sector Finance: More than 450 banks, insurers, pension funds, and other firms that collectively manage $130 trillion committed to use their funds to transform the global finance infrastructure towards achieving net-zero by 2050.
8. Sustainable Transport: Over 30 countries, dozens of cities, and several vehicle manufacturers and investors have committed to all 'new sales' of automobiles being strictly zero-emission by 2040, and 2035 in leading markets. Over 20 countries pledged to put measures in place to monitor and reduce emissions arising from domestic and international travel.
9. Just Transition: Over 40 countries signed a declaration to support the transition to green, inclusive economic growth in the move to net-zero.
10. Renewable Energy Financing: The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) launched the Energy Transition Accelerator Financing (ETAF) Platform to provide US$1 billion in financing towards 1.5GW of renewable energy power in developing countries by 2030. To support financing in the Caribbean Region, the Commonwealth debuted a Clean Energy Toolkit that helps countries translate clean energy transition plans into investable business opportunities.

By taking a birds-eye perspective of the Glasgow COP with the understanding of the complexity and nuance of climate negotiation, one may find the summit to be much more sanguine. Indeed, as far as COPs go, Glasgow was more good than bad. In some respects it was also a historic achievement. Still the road to a sustainable, just future depends on global emissions being halved within 96 months - a herculean task only possible when we - as individuals, organisations and companies - translate the spirt of incremental climate policy into grass-roots action. The Glasgow COP was good, but not enough. We all have a role moving forward in closing the gaps.

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Ryan Assiu is a Sustainable Development and Climate Change Specialist by qualification, Program Coordinator by experience, and Educator by passion. He is on a journey to discover his authentic professional identity which has taken him to companies, CSOs and governments throughout the Caribbean. His writings focus on sharing his experiences and knowledge on a wide range of environmental topics relevant to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as his home country of Trinidad and Tobago. Follow him on LinkedIn @ Ryan Assiu | LinkedIn