The good growth blog: What does long term really mean?

It is 159 days ago that Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II died. She reigned for an incredible 70 years and 214 days. There have been so many wonderful tributes. She was a giant historical figure of the 20th and 21st Century, the like of which we will never see again. The Queen not only embodied, but spanned, the transition to the modern world we live in. Her constant presence is one of the things that everyone took for granted but never the extraordinary sense of duty. An exemplary role model on so many levels and a true inspiration to millions whether she had met them or not.

It is exactly 4 years ago on another beautiful blue sky Valentines Day, that BGF had the great privilege to welcome Her Majesty to our offices in London. Watergate House has its own longevity and history, as the first home of the Government School of Code and Ciphers, that today we call GCHQ. Established in 1919, the centenary in 2019 was an opportunity to mark the milestone of another great institution at the heart of our national security. The Queen’s life had covered much of GCHQ’s very existence which is astonishing in itself and reinforced her enduring position as our Monarch. The reflections of those present was one of reverence of course, but equally how she made everyone feel at ease and appeared to have such a lot of time for ‘your’ conversation. She clearly possessed a formidable memory recalling the specifics of the scrambler phone in Buckingham Palace from WWII, together with a real sense of humour. BGF was awarded the Queens Award for Enterprise and when thanked for this she duly asked why did I grant it!

There can be no better example of an individual who thought and acted always with an eye to the very longest term. That is sorely missing today, and it shows. Whether it is rolling 24 hour news, the instant ‘verdicts’ on social media or the ever present electoral cycles, we seem less and less able to plan for the long term … and it really matters. What will the world look like in another 70 years’ time? On present trajectory not in a great place. I can think of two examples, and there are many, which show why we need to change tack. We have the existential challenge of 2050 in terms of reaching net zero, though the real focus should be on 2030 before things are too late. The response to the pandemic shows human capacity to react in the face of a major crisis, but why wait for that moment? Surely the fate of the planet should be top of everyone’s in tray today. And if that all sounds rather too other worldly and ‘not my problem’, what is specific and relevant to everyone is how they plan for their own futures. In the UK average life expectancy is racing towards 90 which is a testament to medical advances and rising prosperity. What is concerning and currently far less obvious is that too many people will not have sufficient savings to enjoy their last decades. We have an ageing population, as do many advanced economies in the world, but combined with a shrinking workforce, that creates an inverted pyramid. How long can the smaller working population support an ever increasing majority of those not working? Not only will living standards for all be threatened but without proper long term planning, ambition, and action we will not have the wealth to fund the public services we need and want right across the UK. The answer to the many challenges we face must be to plan and invest today to be able to afford the future we want tomorrow. It will not happen by itself. The recent Edinburgh Reforms announced by the Chancelllor have a good summary of objectives. What is needed is the means to turn them into a long term reality.

On this theme, returning to 2019, the Queen unveiled a plaque to mark the occasion. That was not unusual, but how many plaques in her reign contained a code, and what does it say about the importance of time? To answer that question, you will have to crack the code yourself … the Queen did!

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