Is it Good Idea to Reclaim POK?

Reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) is a complex and sensitive issue with significant geopolitical, military, and diplomatic implications. Here are some potential steps India might consider, though it is essential to recognize the intricacies and risks involved:

Diplomatic Measures

·         International Advocacy: Strengthen diplomatic efforts to garner international support for India's position on POK. This includes lobbying at international forums like the United Nations and forming alliances with countries sympathetic to India's stance.

·         Highlighting Human Rights Issues: Draw attention to human rights violations in POK to build a moral case and increase international pressure on Pakistan.

·         Legal Actions: Explore international legal avenues to challenge Pakistan's control over POK, potentially bringing the issue before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Strategic and Military Measures

·         Military Preparedness: Enhance military readiness and capabilities along the Line of Control (LoC) and in border areas to deter aggression and prepare for potential conflicts.

·         Covert Operations: Conduct intelligence operations to gather actionable information and support indigenous resistance movements within POK.

·         Cyber Warfare: Utilize cyber capabilities to disrupt Pakistani military and communication networks in POK.

Economic Measures

·         Economic Pressure: Implement economic measures against Pakistan, including sanctions and trade restrictions, to weaken its position.

·         Infrastructure Development: Invest in infrastructure development in Jammu and Kashmir to integrate it more closely with the rest of India, setting a positive example compared to POK.

Political and Social Measures

·         Engage with the Local Population: Foster goodwill among the local population in Jammu and Kashmir by addressing their grievances, ensuring their economic development, and respecting their cultural identity.

·         Propaganda and Information Warfare: Use media and information channels to propagate the benefits of Indian governance and expose the shortcomings of Pakistani administration in POK.

Collaborative Measures

·         Regional Alliances: Strengthen alliances with neighbouring countries that have similar concerns about Pakistan, such as Afghanistan and Iran, to create a broader front against Pakistani actions.

·         Engagement with China: Given China's interests in the region, especially through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), engage diplomatically with China to mitigate its support for Pakistan.

Internal Measures & Long-Term Strategies

·         Political Unity: Ensure a unified political stance within India on the issue of POK, minimizing internal political dissent that could be exploited by external forces.

·         Public Awareness: Educate the Indian public about the historical and geopolitical aspects of POK to build a consensus on national strategy.

·         Sustainable Development: Promote sustainable economic development in Jammu and Kashmir to create a prosperous region that contrasts sharply with the conditions in POK.

·         Consistent Policy: Maintain a consistent and long-term policy towards reclaiming POK, avoiding reactive measures and focusing on strategic objectives.

Drawbacks of reclaiming POK?

Reclaiming Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) involves several potential drawbacks and challenges, which could have significant implications for India. These drawbacks can be broadly categorized into geopolitical, military, economic, and social factors.

Geopolitical Drawbacks

Any aggressive move to reclaim POK could lead to widespread condemnation from the international community. India might face diplomatic isolation or sanctions from major global powers and international organizations. It will cause strained relations with Pakistan: Such an action would severely damage bilateral relations with Pakistan, leading to increased hostility and potentially prolonged conflict. The prompt and violent China's reaction cannot be discounted. Given China's strategic interests in the region, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), India could face significant opposition from China, escalating into a two-front conflict.

Military Drawbacks

A military attempt to reclaim POK could trigger a full-scale war with Pakistan, leading to massive casualties and destruction on both sides. This could also escalate into a nuclear conflict given both countries possess nuclear weapons. Even if initial military objectives are achieved, maintaining control over POK could lead to a prolonged insurgency and continuous military engagement, draining resources and manpower. The move could exacerbate terrorism and insurgency in the region, with increased attacks from militant groups both within POK and across the rest of India.

Economic Drawbacks

The International sanctions or embargoes could severely impact India's economy, affecting trade, investment, and overall economic growth. Consequently, there will be increased Defence Spending. The financial burden of military operations and subsequent security measures would divert resources from essential developmental projects and social welfare programs.

Social Drawbacks

Military conflict could lead to a significant humanitarian crisis, with displacement of populations, civilian casualties, and widespread suffering in the affected areas. The conflict could exacerbate communal tensions and lead to internal instability within India, particularly in regions with significant Muslim populations. The civilian population in POK would suffer from the consequences of military action, including loss of life, property, and disruption of daily life, potentially creating long-term animosity against India.

Political Drawbacks

Such an aggressive move could lead to political divisions within India, with different political parties and regional groups having varied opinions on the issue, potentially destabilizing the central government. It will cause serious impact on our development goals. The focus on military objectives could divert attention and resources from India's developmental goals, including poverty alleviation, healthcare, and education.

Diplomatic Drawbacks

India will score loss of Moral High Ground. India has historically taken a position of resolving conflicts through dialogue and peaceful means. A military move to reclaim POK could undermine this stance, affecting India's image as a responsible global actor. The reclaim of POK will also cause alienation of our key Indian allies.  Key international allies who advocate for peaceful resolution of conflicts may distance themselves from India, leading to a loss of strategic partnerships.

Long-Term Consequences

Sustainability of Control is major concern. Ensuring long-term stability and control over POK would require significant administrative, economic, and military investment, which could be challenging to sustain. Reconstruction Costs further adds to long term liabilities which will impact India economically. Post-conflict econstruction and development of POK would entail massive financial commitments, potentially straining India's economy further.

Conclusion

Reclaiming POK is not just a matter of military might but involves a comprehensive strategy encompassing diplomacy, economic measures, internal unity, and international cooperation. Each step must be carefully considered, balancing the risks and benefits to achieve a peaceful and stable resolution.

Reclaiming POK through military means carries significant risks and challenges. The potential drawbacks highlight the need for a cautious, well-considered approach that balances national interests with regional stability and international relations.

Cutting out the jingoism, we need to finally consider -

• The demographic imbalance caused by relaiming POK
• Drain of infrastructure and healthcare
• Surge in radicalised population
• POK citizens gave shelter and provided safe heavens to terrorists, no gurantee that they will change thier mindset