Google is officially a monopoly - what does it mean for the SEO industry?

After almost a year-long trial, the judge's ruling was what we, SEOs, had known for years: Google is an online search monopoly.

We’ve seen businesses smashed by Google’s whims, retrospective penalties, and updates. They called it “collateral damage” but in reality, if it were not a monopoly, ruining hundreds of thousands of lives and careers wouldn’t have been so easy.

You will likely hear that this is a huge turning point for the whole Internet but going back to a similar ruling in regards to Microsoft almost 25 years ago, the changes following it were much less dramatic than the headlines had wanted us to expect.

Google, which was built on its search engine and doesn’t have any other source of income huge enough to sustain it, will keep fighting. So nothing will change overnight…

There’s another trial coming up and that one will be about Google’s paid ads that exist inside organic search. The current ruling included ads too. Quoting the judge (and nodding my head vigorously when reading it),

Unconstrained price increases have fueled Google’s dramatic revenue growth…

In reality, Google could do with its search engine and search ads whatever it wanted. The antitrust ruling was inevitable. But will it change anything?

What will happen now?

The judge didn’t provide any clear steps on how to remedy the monopoly situation (this is still coming), but most likely:

• Google will appeal making any changes slower to happen so it will likely take years to feel any effects
• Google will likely be forced to stop being a default search engine for most browsers and smartphones which will cause it to lose some of its market share (this will likely happen years from now). Too many browser type-ins and voice searches result in Google searches these days. Many people do not even realize they are using Google Search when typing queries or brand names in their browser URL bars. Losing these defaults will likely disrupt the search market in a big way but it won’t happen soon, if it happens at all.

Ultimately, this is terrible timing for Google because the search giant is already terrified by AI technology and what it is going to do to how people search and discover information and brands.

What will happen to SEO?

Nothing is changing.

If anything, paid ads are likely to be more affected by this and the upcoming trial.

When it comes to organic search:

• If Google is going to be forced to lose some of its exclusivity deals, the process will take years
• If it does eventually happen, it is good news for SEOs. We do desperately need other search engines to build more sustainable and safe growth strategies for clients.

Is there a chance for other search engines?

Unlikely, at least for traditional search engines.

Launching a new search engine at this point would require billions of dollars and tech giants that can afford this are going through similar trials soon. 

Bing is probably the only option here but unless ChatGPT (that uses Bing to search) becomes mainstream enough, Bing won’t grow fast enough.

So nothing is essentially changing - again - for the search industry.

Don’t miss my prior coverage of the trail and thoughts on the future of SEO:

• Clicks as a Ranking Factor: Who Is Surprised?
• Clicks, Long Clicks and CTR, and What These Mean for SEO
• Will Your Brand Be Found by ChatGPT, SGE & Other Generative AI Engines?
• The Future of Link Building Is Not What You Think It Is
• GEO (Generative Engine Optimization), the Future of SEO (?)