Google's monopoly under threat from ChatGPT and Microsoft?

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The end of Big Tech dominance? They are finally being attacked by newcomers.

Have you ever considered the possibility that Google, a company that has dominated the search engine market for so long, could one day be disrupted by a newer competitor?

While this may seem unlikely, the truth is that no company is immune to disruption. History has shown us that even the most dominant players can be disrupted. Just look at the fate of previous tech giants like Hyves, MySpace, and Yahoo. In 2023, we see current dominant tech companies facing serious competition, such as Meta vs TikTok, Twitter vs Mastodon, and ..... Google vs ChatGPT / Microsoft.

While it is true that Google currently has a significantly larger user base than ChatGPT, the latter's rapid rise in popularity has led to speculation about whether or not Google's reign as the top search engine may be coming to an end. Especially now that ChatGPT is going to integrate with Microsoft's search engine Bing!

ChatGPT vs Google

ChatGPT is a large language model developed by OpenAI that has gained significant attention in recent months due to its ability to generate human-like text when given a prompt. ChatGPT has an intuitive interface: it really feels as if you're talking to your own personal assistant.

Why struggle through a long list of blue links (Google) when another system can give you the off-the-shelf answer (ChatGPT)?

Is Google going to cannibalize on its own revenue model?

It's worth noting, however, that Google also has its own language models such as PaLM and LaMDA, which could potentially be used in the same way as ChatGPT.

While incorporating LaMDA or similar models into the search engine could greatly enhance the user experience by providing immediate, accurate answers, it could also potentially jeopardize Google's main source of income: advertising. If users are able to get the exact answer they need through the chatbot feature, they are not going to click on links in the search results, thus leading to decreased ad revenue for Google.

This raises the question of whether the company will take the risk of potentially harming its ad revenue in order to improve the user experience.

Collaboration between ChatGPT & BING!

Now here is some very recent news: Microsoft and OpenAI are working together to bring a ChatGPT powered version of Bing to the search engine market. Bing currently holds a 2.95% global search market share, and the new AI feature could potentially give it a boost. As I suspected, the AI will be used to answer certain search queries, rather than just providing a list of links. This collaboration between Microsoft and OpenAI is a result of Microsoft's $1 billion investment in OpenAI in 2019, which included a clause for the two companies to work together on Bing. Microsoft is expected to launch the new feature on Bing by the end of March. With its investment in OpenAI and experience in the search engine industry, Microsoft seems well-equipped to lead the way in the emerging field of conversational search.

However, despite ChatGPT's advanced technology, it still has imperfections that may hinder its effectiveness

1. ChatGPT is prone to making errors, which can be problematic in fields where precision is critical, such as .... you've guessed it.. search engines.
2. Additionally, ChatGPT lacks access to real-time information, which may be a disadvantage for users who require access to the most up-to-date information. And don't we all want the most recent information when using a search engine?

What does the future hold for ChatGPT, Bing, Google and the search market?

Here are three potential scenarios to consider:

1. BING/ ChatGPT becomes the top search engine, surpassing Google in popularity. When it is able to provide accurate, up-to-date and relevant results (when?), BING/ChatGPT could potentially attract users away from Google. Added value is in offering one single answer, the intuitive interface and the ability to generate new text.
2. Google adapts and stays the dominant player. It integrates LaMDA into its search engine, improving the user experience (like the “knowledge panels” and “answer boxes” that give a simple answer) and search results in order to remain competitive.
3. Both technologies continue to be used for different purposes, with ChatGPT mostly being used for generating text such as articles and marketing material, while Google remains the dominant search engine. Google only displays factual information in its "answer boxes" and does not speculate or make assumptions.

It is impossible to predict with certainty what the future holds for ChatGPT and the search market. It will be interesting to see how Google responds and whether it will be able to adapt and maintain its dominance.

ps: I think the third scenario is the most likely. What do you think? Let me know!