Hamas is Evil and Israel Got Played

June 2024

Okay, before we get into the analysis, a baseline perspective is badly needed as public opinion and protests remain on fire in the United States and internationally:

 1.     Outrage against Hamas for its heinous October 7 massacre and hostage-taking of Israeli civilians is entirely appropriate.

 2.     Outrage against the massive killing of Palestinian civilians by the Government of Israel in the months since is equally appropriate.

 3.     Outrage against one without acknowledging the other is wildly disingenuous and a willful disregard of intellectual integrity.

 The October 7 Hamas attack was well planned, well executed, and resulted in the group’s desired outcome as it was originally concocted. Are the leaders of Hamas surprised by the magnitude of the Israeli response and the associated large-scale destruction and death among the Palestinian people? Not sure, but they were counting on it.

 How is it possible that the sympathies of the planet that were showered on Israel on October 8 have so rapidly turned into near universal condemnation?

 In red corner…

 Hamas read the tea leaves of the warming ties between Israel and the Arab Gulf States. In this unfolding scenario, they felt a threat to their relevance as a political entity and especially to flows of money into the pockets of their elite. Hmmm, what to do, what to do?

 Hamas knew the ferocity in which the Government of Israel would retaliate after a vicious attack. And it did.

 Hamas knew that thousands of innocent Palestinian civilians would be mowed down in the bombing. And they were.

 Hamas knew the images of a (very real) humanitarian crisis would dominate the global conversation. And it is.

 Hamas knew that they could hide in hospitals, schools, and behind their people because the blowback would be obscured when Israel targeted these traditional safe havens to get them. And they were right. 

 Hamas knew that Israel’s military avalanche would cloud most memories of the brutality of its own attack and hostage-taking and replace it with a world opinion that turned Israel into the ogre of the day. (And hostage-taking? Really?) Clouding successful.

 Hamas also knows that the longer the carnage drags out, the more extreme the juxtaposition with Israel would become. Indeed, the above-ground Gaza is where women and children scurry amid the devastation while the underground Gaza is where Hamas leaders play the long game while sipping tea and playing Canasta in bunkers and tunnels.

 The design by Hamas was brilliant and all the cards fell into place. But the design also reveals the Hamas leaders to be some seriously evil bastards. Massacring, raping, and kidnapping 1400 of your enemy’s innocents is top shelf wickedness. But a deliberate scheme to instigate the slaughter of tens of thousands of your own innocents – whom they purport to represent – is some seriously bad juju, fire and brimstone stuff. Hamas acted with a willful calculated cost of doing business.

 … and in the blue corner…

 Israel’s right and obligation to respond to the Hamas attack on October 7 is inarguable. The complete destruction of Hamas is also a fair prime objective.

 After 35,000 or so dead Palestinian civilians, how is that destruction of Hamas going?

 Completely unrelated, but remember General Schwarzkopf’s characterization of Saddam Hussein’ military prowess? “He is neither a strategist, nor is he schooled in the operational arts, nor is he a tactician, nor is he a general, nor is he a soldier. Other than that, he's a great military man.” But I digress.

 Admittedly, it’s hard to strategize clearly when revenge is hot and your eyes are filled with blood. Further, war by nature is a nasty business and a strong stomach is sometimes needed to reach objectives. However, big time policy decisions to geo-strategic crises that are constructed by emotion (i.e., rage) usually fail the sniff test when they play out.

 Like Israel, I am not an adherent to the concept of “proportional response.” I have no problem with an overwhelming response when someone punches you hard in the face. Hamas leadership should be eliminated for what it did, full stop. However, choosing to adopt an overwhelming response requires decisionmakers to incorporate assurances that the retaliation actually hits the right target.

 Tens of thousands of civilian casualties for how many Hamas leaders so far? It is not zero, but an April 5 BBC piece indicates that, “The IDF has not been able to get to the top brass of the Hamas leadership.” Exact numbers are not known and largely irrelevant; the current path being pursued not only isn’t working but has put Israel in a worse position than when it started. 

 To be sure, it is extraordinarily hard to surgically remove the Hamas cancer from among the Gazan population, but the political and strategic objectives need to be accurately defined first so military and diplomatic efforts that follow result in actually moving the ball in that direction.

 Many Hamas military leaders are in Gaza, which require lethal applications. But the higher leadership of Hamas lives abroad. Where is the diplomatic effort to mount global pressure to create accountability there? Do they not bear some accountability? They couldn’t have been ignorant of the scheme. Haven’t heard a peep.

 Recent history is replete with examples of instructional situations where failures are typical and successes are limited. US strategies and operations in Afghanistan and Iraq have countless lessons of both in counter insurgency and combatting embedded enemies. How ‘bout scouring those AARs? An even better illustration is the British Government’s elimination of the IRA where intelligence and deadly under-the-radar operations successfully produced desired outcomes. And the Israeli intelligence is at least as good as its military.

 So, Israel got played … hard.

 Should it have responded? Absolutely. Even in an overwhelming manner? Fine. Is its strategy producing the desired results to eliminate Hamas? Ehhh, not so much.

 Nine months in and they appear to be woefully off target. The Israelis are supposed to be the good guys here. They were handed a white hat at the start yet made themselves the over-the-top aggressor. Conversely, Hamas hatched a truly malevolent operation and now they are martyrs with American college kids flocking to the cause en masse.

 International bodies, like the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN and others are pushing with all their feckless, legal-ish might for the cessation of Israel’s brutal tactics. This is not an unreasonable position. However, it rings a bit hollow when the same emotional and breathless angst are not manifest in calls for Hamas to stop hiding among civilians and using civilian structures as shields – also against international law, no? Especially when it is done purposefully (and successfully) to sway global public opinion when their dead are broadcast. A quick thought experiment: how many Palestinians would have been killed if Hamas did not deliberately use civilians as shields?

 Let’s be clear. Hamas has demonstrated that it does not give one whit about its people. Zero, nada, zip. The Palestinian people have always deserved better. The Palestinian leadership of any stripe has never been good. Incompetence and endemic corruption are one thing, but any group that puts its own people out as fodder to buy a few points of political relevancy must not remain relevant.

Sorry Bibi, but Plan A isn’t working.