Has GenAI Already Peaked?

Has generative artificial intelligence finally reached the dreaded “trough of disillusionment"?  

In the past year, artificial intelligence has grown increasingly mainstream—with the potential of becoming more established as the technology furthers human productivity and innovation—and with it comes a series of studies and online conversations covering updates to the industry landscape, overall consumer sentiments surrounding its evolution, as well as assessments of its business model and investors' sense of security. 

However, as Gartner's 2024 hype cycle forecast suggests, the peak of artificial intelligence's popularity has begun to dwindle as inflated expectations give way to an inevitable phase of waning interest, in part due to the frequency of failed experiments and implementations. Indeed, a seemingly increasing number of  headlines and viral moments surrounding AI in recent months have struck more skeptical and sometimes even cynical tones regarding GenAI’s transformative impact, focusing on missteps and blundered results rather than enthusiastically pondering its future capabilities.  

Still, AI would not be stuck in the trough (if it’s even in one) forever, as Gartner's cycle includes a set of post-disillusionment phases that will foster a renewed understanding of the technology and trigger its broad market applicability and relevance. Ultimately, though, Gartner's report is merely a prediction that does not encompass the entirety of AI activations—public perception of on-device AI, for instance, is largely positive, as experts deem it a critical component for industry dominance. 

Why it matters: Any technological advancement waxes and wanes in its peak years before achieving penultimate stability within mainstream society. It should come as no surprise that artificial intelligence will undergo a similar process in the years to come, but to reiterate, predictions will never definitively inform the progress of a given technology (especially when other reports claim that AI overcame the phase of disillusionment months ago). It is important for brands to be mindful, particularly with respect to consumer reactions, that AI’s significance to propel brands forward into a future of innovation remains steadfast. 

Other news and trends 

• Perplexity's AI advertising. Perplexity AI has been quickly growing over the past year as it seeks to build itself up as a worthy and profitable opponent to the likes of Google and OpenAI in the artificial intelligence race (though not without ripples of controversy in the process). Now, according to a copy of a pitch deck obtained by DigiDay, the startup is getting ready to win over advertisers with the integration of ads in search queries and results. The addition, speculated to launch as early as the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2024, would seamlessly appear alongside conversations in a consumer's chat with AI, such as recommending T-Mobile in a query on mobile plans, or highlighting Microsoft following a prompt on cloud-based solutions.  

• The next iPhone. Apple has confirmed the date of September 9th as its annual product announcement event, set to take place at the Steve Jobs Theater at Apple Park. Rumors are swirling online as people speculate about the pending iPhone 16 and 16 Pro models, especially since they will be the latest iterations of the mobile device that fully incorporate features of Apple Intelligence, which the company formally introduced back in June, and may even benefit from the Snapdragon X75 modem – allowing for faster and more efficient 5G connectivity, with an even smaller hardware footprint. Consumers are also attempting to decipher the event's tagline, "It's Glowtime," as a possible nod to the updated variant of Siri in software update iOS 18, which would supposedly light up the edges of the phone when called upon. Other tech enthusiasts are sharing videos to their social platforms explaining what to expect at the event, as well as calling out what other products will be announced. 

• Google Pixel 9. Reviews of the Google Pixel 9 lineup have been rolling in since its release last week, lauding its unbelievably long battery life. Another topic of conversation, as we have reported on previously, is the inclusion of Google's Magic Editor, an AI editing tool that has experts heralding the mobile device as the first true smartphone in the era of GenAI. However, while some are enjoying using the tool as the perfect solution to eliminate unwanted objects in an otherwise feed-worthy photo, others are concerned about its ability to generate unlikely but eerily- ealistic additions to the composition. With the likelihood of inaccuracies circulating that are difficult to ascertain,—especially when misinformation is already an unprecedented threat—content credentials will become critical to the establishment of AI safety and governance. 

Contributors: Head of Social Content and Engagement Strategy Cristina Lawrence, Senior Vice President Jerry Lawrence, Group Vice President Andrew McKernan, and Senior Vice President Tammy Pepito. At Razorfish, we help brands define their higher purpose—the emotional reason why they belong in people’s lives. Ready to find your purpose? Learn more here.