Are heat pumps the ultimate choice in the long-term?

Heat pumps are touted as the ultimate energy-efficient heating and cooling solution – by far. But it certainly doesn’t feel that way with the current energy prices.

Is there something we’re missing?  🤔

The two objections heat-pump-skeptics 🤨 cite are that:

• heat pumps are expensive to buy and install and that
• electricity is not as cheap as it used to be.

While these concerns are valid, most heating solutions have a lifespan that will outlive the current situation – especially heat pumps that ought to last 25 years or so.

That’s why we should be looking into the future to compare heating solutions more pragmatically.

Here’s how these two issues are likely to play out.

High Initial Cost vs Low Total Cost of Ownership

Heat pumps have one disadvantage that has held them back so far. Heat pumps are not exactly affordable for everyone to buy, but they offer a great return to those who own them. So, we should take into consideration the total cost of ownership when comparing them to other solutions.

If you can overcome the initial cost barrier, you will enjoy the most energy-efficient solution available for roughly 25 years. That basically means a cheaper solution that lasts longer than others.

Did I mention that they last roughly 25 years? That’s a loooooong time to recoup your initial investment! And let’s not forget that heat pumps have a very low maintenance cost.

As heat pumps become the norm, servicing costs, installation costs and replacement parts will all become widespread and cheaper. On the other hand, gas and oil boilers will become harder to service and maintain as their market share dwindles. Gas networks in particular will be shuttered sooner due to the high maintenance cost (see my post on this!)

Heat pump leasing or renting will make heat pump use even more ubiquitous and accessible. Some power utilities are already providing such options for their customers.

As we produce more heat pumps to meet the growing demand, their production costs will drop. These economies of scale will likely apply to installation costs too, where installers will be better, more experienced, and faster at installing heat pumps.

Innovations in heat pump design will likely reduce the installation cost of heat pumps. Monobloc units for instance are easier and cheaper to install compared to split air-source units.

Finally, I haven’t yet mentioned the elephant in the room: subsidies. With the EU’s mandate to reach net zero the electrification of heating will play a major role. This means that energy policies are likely to subsidize the purchase of heat pumps even further making them an unbeatable choice.

So not only do heat pumps win hands-down in terms of total cost of ownership, but they will likely become a very competitive option when their purchase and installation costs drop further.

Yes, electricity is expensive now, but…

Heat pumps will become comparatively more affordable to power in the future. That’s because all energy forms are expensive, but policies are aimed at decarbonizing the heating sector.

Aside from subsidies for the purchase and installation of heat pumps, the cost of using heat pumps will likely be subsidized as oil and gas were before.

The distinction between energy used for heating and energy used for other uses can easily be made with smart meters if policies aim to subsidize the power source itself.

That said, subsidies can take a million different forms…

Taxation will probably be used to disincentivize the use of fossil fuels, potentially with tax reductions on electricity in order to disproportionately tax fossil fuels.

The introduction of dynamic electricity tariffs will favor heat pump owners who will be able to store energy in thermal form at a lower price. This means that you can run your heat pump during low-rate hours, storing energy in thermal form.

This is something that is likely going to be encouraged and rewarded by policies to “shave the peaks” of power consumption to reduce the need for further power generation infrastructure investments.

What is also already incentivized through subsidies is the adoption of Solar PV powerplants. Of course, this throws us back to the higher investment cost argument, but the power-duo of solar-powered heat pumps is a combo that is very hard to beat. And that’s another win for the low total cost of ownership of heat pumps.

We’re not sages. So, although we can make educated and well-informed estimations, we can’t rely on all these events materializing. It is safe to say though that the future is bright heat pumps and that betting on fossil fuel heating solutions seems to carry more long-term risks that meet the eye.

Stay cool and toasty! 😎👌🔥