Heatwaves to massive floods-harbingers of climate change are already here!

We can debate whether climate change is real or not. As we debate from the comfort of our living rooms, catastrophic weather extremes have hit regions across the world. From flash floods in Germany to deadly temperatures in the US, from wildfires in Turkey to landslides in India. The world as we know is either burning or drowning, literally!

Jonas- a winemaker living in the German town of Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler was going about his typical day when German weather services issued an extreme weather warning on Tuesday, July 13. Little did he know that he was about to witness unprecedented catastrophic flooding which left Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, known for its vineyards and wineries into a sludge of mud. In the following days, the scale of floods and unprecedented devastation became painfully obvious. In addition to the complete collapse of infrastructure, the death toll in Germany and Belgium put together is set to exceed well above 180 and many remained unaccounted for.

Liu- an assembly line worker in Foxconn's iPhone factory started her usual morning commute on the Zhengzhou subway metro system. A typical workday for Liu, but there was something unusual about today's commute. There was a heavy downpour and announcements were blurted out about heavy rains. She put on her earbuds and got immersed in her favorite numbers from BTS K-pop until a huge surge of floodwater swirled around in the carriage. Water level quickly rose to her chest and many struggled to breathe as space between them and the roof started filling up with water. After two days of heavy rainfall, three dams were overwhelmed leaving city infrastructure underwater in the provincial capital, Zhengzhou, central China. At least 302 people have been killed and many are still missing (China floods death toll rises to 302 with 50 people still missing | China | The Guardian).

Across Chinese social media, several videos showed the severity of the flooding, with hundreds of cars floating down main streets like toys in a water bath, water-filled subway carriages, and equally relentless rescue efforts.

These two different stories of devastating floods are from two very different parts of the world. However, climate change-induced extreme weather conditions is a common link between these and many such horrible stories reported in the last decade. Only a few years back, more than 40 million people were affected by massive floods across India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, killing 1,300 and leaving about 1.5 million homeless. In recent years, flash floods have become very common and have particularly hit hard the low-middle income countries in Asia where population density is on a higher side (Asia – FloodList). In the month of July 2021 alone, thousands of people went missing or lost their lives and millions had to be evacuated. The list of floods meticulously documented by floodlist.com paints a horrific picture. From Africa to the Americas and Europe to Oceania floods are drowning infrastructure and lives alike (Asia – FloodList).

This erratic and extreme weather pattern is just the early warning signs of things to come. By the most optimistic of estimates, Earth is set to be warmer by 1.5°C which would lead to a doubling of global flood risk. The following statistics paint very uncomfortable forecasts for life on earth, particularly in coastal cities such as New York, Miami, Mumbai, Tokyo, and Shanghai. Given our failure to act on climate change, only a few years old forecast looks grossly dated. What we are seeing now was predicted to happen 70 years from now! We are very likely to face this imminent danger sooner than predicted.

Sir David King founder of  Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG) published a report on 29th July 2021- Extreme Weather Events in the Arctic and Beyond: A Global State of Emergency (PDF). This report points out stark climate aberrations in the Arctic region which will make these catastrophic floods more frequent and deadlier all across the globe. What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic, and it is set to affect global weather patterns drastically.

Heatwaves and wildfires

On one hand, some cities are drowning in floods while on the other hand some are parched with record-breaking heatwaves. Swiss Alps, Cyprus, many states in the USA, Canada, Northern Ireland, Northern India, and even remote Antarctica all recorded their hottest-ever temperatures in the last two years. The risk of wildfires increases proportionally in extremely dry conditions such as heatwaves, and high winds. The natural but devastating consequence of these heat waves is uncontrollable raging wildfires. Wildfires add fuel to already disrupted microclimates and ecosystems by engulfing local flora and fauna.

Despite wildfires being a regular feature of the summer season, every year seems to bring worse and more fierce fires. Millions of hectares of land rendered parched and bone dry in the last two years alone-following infographic shows the number of currently active wildfires (Wildfire Maps & Response Support | Wildfire Disaster Program (esri.com)

Notably, a short-term forecast by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the triple-digit temperature (in F) owing to a "heat dome" like phenomenon which might build over the central United States in the month of August 2021.

Are these global extreme weather conditions just mere coincidences?

Climate change is often described as global warming leading to a steady increase in temperatures and melting of glaciers. Admittedly, it is an episodic phenomenon and has happened several times over millions of years of the history of our planet. However, in our short existence (compared to the history of our planet), we forced it to accelerate in orders of magnitude via greenhouse gas emissions. Without going into technical details to link these events to human-caused climate changes, it suffices to say that like any complex holistic system, the weather on Earth is multifactorial. The unprecedented rate of warming is ought to cause an imbalance in our climate patterns and set to disturb the closely knit and holistic balance of weather. The impact of human-caused climate change is already manifesting in form of seemingly unrelated (for some skeptics) extreme weather conditions. Earth and its atmosphere is an astonishingly orderly island amid a sea of universal chaos, we should thank our stars (rather our planet Earth, pun intended) for providing perfect conditions for human life! Astronomy aficionados and intergalactic human civilization visionaries amongst us probably know how rare it is to have such a planet favorable for human existence and life — complete with atmosphere to ozone layer protecting us from cosmic radiations! The debate is not if, but when will we reach the so-called tipping point that once passed could drastically disrupt the climate in an abrupt and non-linear manner.

Economical impact of climate change!

More often than not, the policymakers are guided by public sentiments rather than solid scientific results. Even the rational amongst policymakers are surprisingly short-sighted and focused on the short-term economical impact of climate change measures. Therefore, it is prudent to elaborate on the unsustainable economical impact of climate change itself. It is not economical growth vs. climate change measures, it is rather impossible to achieve one without the other.

As per an eye-opening report published by the Swiss Re Institute (The economics of climate change: no action not an option) predicts (based on the current trajectory) climate change could wipe off up to 18% of GDP and 10% of total economic value by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 3.2°C. This report emphasized that climate change is a systemic risk that must be addressed now. Moreover, the Global Risks Report 2021 compiled by World Economic Forum (WEF) features extreme weather, climate change inaction, and human environmental damage as the top three global risks ranked by likelihood WEF_The_Global_Risks_Report_2021.pdf (weforum.org). These reports unanimously call for urgent, meaningful, and global efforts to tackle climate change.

Human impact on climate change vastly outpace the measures

Partly owing to the Trump era, global cooperation on climate change has weakened in the last few years. Actions proposed and taken to mitigate climate change seem to be lagging tragically. It is good news that some lawmakers started acknowledging the urgency to act on climate change, although they have waited until they were at receiving end of extreme weather. Notable mentions include German Minister of the Environment Svenja Schulze and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The latter called the devastating floods “a clear indication of climate change” and “something that really, really shows the urgency to act.” This is no longer an excuse not to act on climate change and push the burden onto future generations, if at all.

The science-guided policy is the only way forward!

The onus is not only on scientists but also on elected lawmakers/policymakers to ensure efficient communication and modify policies accordingly.

The state of climate scientists seems to be more like modern day Cassandras-a mythological Greek priestess who was cursed to predict ultra true prophesies but never to be believed by anyone! We have been warned well in advance by scientists of this future. We are in a state of climate emergency and the time to act is slipping out. The world as we know is burning and drowning, irrespective of whether you believe/understand climate change.

We are in a state of climate change crisis and we must unite our resources to take immediate action to reduce global warming. Climate change is an existential threat to humanity. In addition to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), we need a committed UN security-style council to address this risk decisively.

I would like to end this apparent doomsayer article on a hopeful note. Despite the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, the speed and scale of the response exhibited by governments, businesses, and individuals make me hopeful in human spirit and humanity. If we cooperate as we have had (more or less) throughout human history, then hopefully we can react to the climate change crisis to ensure the continuation of our meteoric rise as a species on this planet for centuries to come.

Clock is ticking and only time will tell if we will react in a meaningful way or like a metaphoric frog in boiling water ending up burnt, drowned or both literally!

Feel free to comment with your constructive opinions and any in/out of box idea(s) to address this challenge of climate change.

This article is originally published on Medium.

Follow me on LinkedIn or Twitter for more such write-ups