Hidden in Plain Sight

Good morning and happy Friday, 

This week brought new clarity regarding clean energy tax credits as Treasury released the final rules for Section 45 domestic manufacturing tax breaks; Treasury also released guidance indicating that solar wafer manufacturing qualifies for credits under the CHIPS and Science Act.

Arkansas was in the headlines thanks to an announcement by the USGS that the Smackover Formation could hold enough lithium to meet projected 2030 world demand for car batteries 9 times over, although residents are wary.

As the election nears, speculation about the outcome’s impact on clean energy continues. Heatmap’s coverage looks at clean energy stocks and the IRA programs most at risk if Trump wins, while BNEF says even a repeal of the IRA wouldn’t derail U.S. renewables.

And, the other EIA – that’s the Environmental Investigation Agency – released a report saying a lack of due diligence by wind turbine blade manufacturers means supply chains for balsa wood used in blades are “linked to illegal logging, violations of Indigenous People’s rights, smuggling, and corruption.”

Read on for more.

Hidden in Plain Sight

Little known fun fact: “200 people oversee over $200 billion in utility spending each year in the U.S.” That assertion, made by the non-profit Powerlines, is an attempt to frame the often-overlooked role of public utility commissions, particularly in the ten states where commissioners are elected instead of appointed. This November, PUC races in three states could have an outsize impact on clean energy – here’s a closer look:

• In Arizona, a competitive race for three seats on the five-seat Arizona Corporation Commission could determine the future of renewables policy as well as clean energy procurement by utilities. Voters will choose up to three candidates, “and the three with the most votes will be elected.”
• In Montana, “all eyes are on one race in particular,” and “the headline issue is affordability.” Elena Evans hopes to unseat the Republican incumbent and promises to bring new perspectives to a PSC that has been accused of “rubber stamping rate increases” while disregarding opportunities to embrace forward-thinking solutions.
• Louisiana is another state to watch, although here too, “most people don’t realize” that a spot on the PSC is “one of the most powerful political offices in the state.” Three candidates are vying for one open seat, and none has a definitive lead, which could lead to a December runoff.

⚡️The Takeaway

Margins matter. This year, voters will determine the fate of utility commissions in eight of the ten states where these roles are filled by the electorate. Powerlines has found that in the past ten years, approximately 10% of voters in states with utility commission elections bypassed that section of the ballot. “In many of these elections where the margins are only a couple percent, the one in 10 that sit out are deciding the election.”

That Shrinking Feeling

A new report examines trends in Illinois and New York and concludes “the number of suitable land parcels for renewable energy projects is ‘rapidly shrinking,’” which could “significantly impact the future of renewable energy development” in these two states – and beyond. Here’s an overview:

• The report focuses on the number of sites suitable for renewable energy development, as well as the availability of feeder capacity. Over a 10-month period spanning January-October 2024, Illinois saw a 41.9% reduction in suitable sites; in New York, it was 9.6%.
• The drop in the average acreage of available land is also problematic and may “forc(e) developers to scale down their projects or piece together multiple smaller parcels.” As suitable locations become scarcer, “competition for optimal locations will increase, which can lead to higher costs and longer development timelines.”   
• The study was conducted by Paces, which raised $11 million from investors earlier this year and describes itself as “the leading GIS and data platform accelerating renewable energy project development.” It offers developers “advanced tools” to turn land scarcity challenges into “a strategic advantage.”

⚡️The Takeaway

Perspective is key. While the study offers food for thought, it’s important to keep things in perspective. NREL calculates that decarbonizing the U.S. power sector “would take less than 1% of the land in the Lower 48...an area comparable to or even smaller than the fossil fuel industry’s current footprint.” More aggressive estimates suggest that as the efficiency of solar panels continues to increase, the entire country could be powered by about 10,000 square miles of solar, “equivalent to the size of Lake Erie.”

• Report: NC home to 110K clean energy jobs, #9 in U.S., as industry outpaces overall economy
• The BIL is Back: Biden administration puts $428M into manufacturing projects in coal communities
• Straw Proposal: PJM floats options to fast-track interconnection for shovel-ready projects  
• Unintended Consequences: AI, data center load expected to drive increase in US electricity bills; meanwhile, Power demand from data centers keeping coal-fired plants online 
• Billion Dollar Bets: Is nuclear-powered AI big tech’s bold solution or a pipedream? 
• Lest We Forget: Nuclear renaissance must still solve for spent fuel 

• FERC: Solar has been largest source of new U.S. generating capacity for past 12 months  
• Everything’s Bigger in Texas: One of the largest solar projects in the U.S. goes online in TX, backed by Google
• Delicate: What it takes to build green energy in fossil fuel-dependent Wisconsin
• ”Overburdened”: As solar booms in the California Desert, even supporters feel challenged’ 
• Struggling: US solar, storage growth clipped by labor shortages
• Sticky Wicket: Maxeon’s world-leading solar tech faces hard road ahead 
• Report: States sped ahead on offshore wind in Q3 while private investment slowed 
• Good News: >2 years with no bird collisions at offshore wind site, study determines  
• More Good News: Renewable PPA prices continue to rise – and may do so through 2030
• “Voluntary” Market Impacts: Meta to fund research with NREL on corporate renewables procurement

• AZ: JPMorgan Chase, Capital One commit $260M to solar project
• ID: ACHP makes recommendations to BLM Director regarding wind project
• ID: State approves first solar permit on state endowment land
• KS: Dickinson County Planning board votes for 2-year moratorium
• MA: Lawmakers announce a deal on stalled clean energy bill
• ME: Feds deny state’s request for $456M to help build offshore wind port
• MN: For second time, Swift County rejects moratorium on wind power
• NJ: BPU proposes substantial changes to community solar rules
• NY: Big offshore wind project proposed as other sites are evaluated in 3 states
• OH: Commission candidates say they'll reverse green energy ban
• OK: Hanna residents rally against proposed wind turbine project near homes
• PA: Fairview Twp. supervisors outline solar farm regulations
• PA: Fayette County Zoning Board nixes request for Georges Township solar farm
• VA: Solar farm soil preservation ordinances proposed in Augusta County
• VA: Rules set to tighten for solar in Halifax County

Vegetarian Rocket Engine

“Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage,” or BECCS for short, seeks to achieve net negative emissions, but thus far hasn’t proved cost effective. Several “former rocket engineers” founded Arbor Energy “to repurpose technology they pioneered at SpaceX” and change that.

The result is what Arbor’s CEO Brad Hartwig calls a “vegetarian rocket engine.” Because there’s no oxygen in space, rockets rely on self-transported pure oxygen to burn fuel. When pure oxygen is used to combust biomass here on Earth, the resulting emissions are water and CO2 – the latter of which can be captured and sequestered.

Arbor’s numbers look promising. The company hopes to deliver carbon removal in the $50-$100/ton range, which is much better than the cost for direct air capture ($600/ton) or enhanced rock weathering ($300/ton).

And, for every ton of organic waste – which Arbor plans to primarily source from forest waste – they expect to be able to produce about one megawatt-hour of electricity, along with 1.8 tons of carbon removal.

Microsoft recently signed a deal for permanent carbon dioxide removal, and just last week Arbor was among the eleven projects selected by DOE to receive a combined total of $58.5 million in funding. Sounds like a vegetarian option everyone can love!