High hopes for the autonomous commercial drone

Industry regulators must keep their feet firmly on the ground when it comes to ensuring the safety of commercial drones worldwide. But thanks to advancing technologies, new regulations and an expanding industry ecosystem, demand will soon be soaring to even greater heights.

In our last edition of Innovation Re:Imagined, I touched on three key — and may I say, quite remarkable —  innovations that are helping propel the future for commercial drones.

But advancing technologies and improved products are just part of the reason why I believe we’re rapidly approaching a golden age for commercial drones worldwide. I’m equally encouraged by a recent wave of proposed regulatory changes and new operational standards that will enable commercial drones to flourish in the years ahead.

In this edition, I’ll share some exciting examples of how regulators, governments and innovators worldwide are re-imagining the airspace for commercial drones and discuss why “drone autonomy” will be key to this amazing sector’s continued growth.

So, what do we mean by drone autonomy?

“Autonomy” is a term that’s used a lot these days when it’s associated with modern technology. But what exactly does it mean for drones?

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EUASA) defines an autonomous drone as “able to conduct a safe flight without the intervention of a human pilot,” and does so “… with the help of artificial intelligence, enabling it to cope with all kinds of unforeseen and unpredictable emergency situations.”

Others in the industry define drone autonomy using a sliding scale based on the level of human and AI control. Drone Industry Insights assigns autonomy levels ranging from zero (fully manual human control) to fully AI-powered flight planning and execution (with no human involvement).

Wherever we draw the line on what constitutes drone autonomy, intelligent technologies are becoming increasingly fundamental to commercial drones’ continuing evolution.

Many current drone models already feature intelligent systems capable of completing an array of autonomous operational and payload tasks — from collision avoidance, navigation control and communications, to mission planning — as well as technologies required to complete specific tasks like filming, mapping or goods delivery.

Notably, the EU-funded Labyrinth project has been developing air traffic control software to help prevent autonomous drones from colliding — an essential component of safe autonomous operation. It works by enabling drones to track and share their 3D position with other drones nearby.

Regulatory restrictions are easing

Despite advancing capabilities like these, civil aviation authorities have long been cautious about permitting autonomous drone flights due to their significantly higher safety risks. In fact, with limited exceptions, industry regulations have historically restricted commercial use of fully autonomous drones.

But I’m thrilled to report that the regulatory landscape is shifting in ways that will help ultimately transform the world’s ecosystem for commercial drones — and open up extraordinary new opportunities for fully autonomous drone operations in the years ahead.

Here are some very encouraging recent developments:

·       In 2022, the Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) began laying the foundation for broader guidelines that will allow drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles to be flown autonomously beyond a remote pilot's own line of sight. During such flights — commonly known as “beyond-visual-line-of-sight” or BVLOS operations — a fully autonomous drone follows a pre-set flight path, collects data, and performs tasks without the need for a human pilot to control the vehicle manually. New FAA guidelines allowing for BVLOS operations would represent a “giant leap” that would dramatically expand autonomous commercial drone delivery in the future.

·       Also last year, the UK announced it will soon establish a network of drone airspaces where legal restrictions on human pilots will be lifted. “Project Skyway” will feature a drone superhighway that connects cities and towns across the country, allowing drone manufacturers to tap into a digital traffic management system that uses a ground-based sensor network to guide their devices safely.

·       Earlier this year, the EU enacted a regulation enabling each member state to begin designating dedicated airspace  – known as “U-space” – where drones will be allowed to fly autonomously, with full implementation expected by 2030. I have no doubt that these U-spaces will play a major role in transforming Europe’s commercial drone opportunities in the years ahead.

It should be noted that these and other regulatory shifts are still in their early stages – and that regulators will also be considering the real-world impact that autonomous drones could have on communities or the environment, particularly in areas where drones could operate at scale. However, as confidence in fully autonomous drones continues to gain momentum among industry regulators, manufacturers, and operators, I’m extremely confident we’ll soon see even greater levels of market growth for commercial drones around the globe.

For example, drones operating autonomously in urban areas could literally revolutionize last mile delivery services, especially as self-docking systems that automate the docking and recharging process continue to advance. The FAA has already approved early last mile drone programs in the US, including medical prescription drone delivery projects and food and goods delivery projects. The market for autonomous last mile delivery is forecast to be worth nearly $5 billion by 2030.

Those projections are dwarfed by the growth anticipated for autonomous drones within the industrial site inspection market, which analysts predict will increase from nearly $6.5 billion in 2020 to more than $35 billion by 2030. While commercial drones are already transforming visual inspections worldwide, it’s clear that expanded BVLOS capabilities will take this sector to a new level. From bridges to power infrastructure and mine inspections, routine BVLOS-enabled operations could put far fewer people at risk from inspecting hazardous sites and help improve overall safety levels.

These and a world of other emerging applications will enable autonomous drones to streamline the services we consume, and help businesses and governments increase drone connectivity, safety, and sustainability. It makes now a perfect time for business leaders to begin actively considering how their enterprise could ultimately benefit from this extraordinary strand of modern technology.  

A golden age for commercial drones is fast approaching, and it’s taking shape in the skies above us right now. It’s time to look up and explore what the future will soon deliver.

#       #       #

The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organization or its member firms.