Hirewell Data Insights - Historical Q4 Hiring Trends
Happy Friday! How about a little light reading before you check out for the weekend?
4th quarter is historically a time when hiring slows down. Some companies use the time to reset their focus and set their plans for the following year. Others flat-out punt decisions until after the holidays. Or at least that’s what everyone in the hiring world has said for as long as I can remember.
But is that the case? I dove into our numbers for the past five years to see if we actually saw a slowdown in Q4.
A lot has happened in the last five years. Each year has been like a short story that has few characters or plot lines that carry into the next.
Our Q4 trends reinforce that point. If hiring throughout the year were linear, we’d see 25% of our numbers hit in q4. I looked at two metrics for Hirewell:
Billing is what most focus on. It is what everyone in search is measured on. There is a 100% correlation to compensation. It is also a lagging indicator. Billing is the output of the work we’ve done 1-3+ months prior.
Searches launched is a better indicator of what’s happening today. When we looked at Searches launched, we see a much more telling story.
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What does any of this mean? When times are great (ie, everyone is hiring), Q4 has been strong. But when hiring slows? Lookout. Q4 is going to be ugly.
What are our Q4 2024 trends telling us? We are only ⅓ of the way home, but 2024 is shaping up to be a lot more like 2019. We haven’t had a Goldilocks year in a long time (not too hot, not too cold). I think a lot of us would be thrilled to have one though…
Oh yeah, we also happen to have an election next week (not sure if you’ve heard). So that’s another variable that makes all of this a crapshoot.
TLDR?
Watch this video from Emily and Ryan about Q4 hiring and how to lay a foundation for 2025
In this week’s Hirewell Update, hosts Ryan Brown and Emily Goor explore why the fourth quarter is an optimal time for hiring. They discuss the benefits of early recruitment for 2025, the uptick in RPO requests, and preparing new employees before Q1. The episode offers insights into optimizing talent acquisition and addresses common challenges in hiring during Q4. Viewers will also learn about the advantages of onboarding before the holidays and improving team connections for retention. For more content, visit talentinsights.hirewell.com.
Thanks for reading and enjoy your weekend!
- Matt