There is no hope for professional composers

Professional composers are doomed.

The Beginning

In the beginning, there were few commercial composers - the barriers to entry were high. Education was relatively inaccessible, you needed to play an instrument proficiently, and it was expensive to hire other musicians to perform the music you created.

It was difficult to become a composer, but you could find work if you were good - many boomer composers I've talked to, especially from LA, reminisced to me about their mentors and early opportunities while I listened patiently knowing that I will never have that same experience.

Once it became clear that there was a significant financial upside to be had, agents and agencies entered the fray to represent stables of composers who joined on the promise of access to better paying and more prestigious work.

The Erosion

As the barriers to entry slowly eroded, with more people gaining access to electronic production equipment and education becoming more available, composers began to grow in number and clamor for the same opportunities. 

At this time, agencies became even more important for composers to secure meaningful work and represented the only available option for these creatives to bargain effectively with clients for better rates.

In addition, lesser known composers might sign on with an agency exclusively to be associated with some of the more well known composers on the roster - in exchange for this benefit, they trade 10% of all their music income regardless of whether the agency finds them the work or they find it themselves.

It's a tidy little arrangement that ensures a no-risk stream of income for a big agency that would then focus on its bigger composers. Because they're not going to market a nobody - that would be a waste of time and resources.

Of course, not everyone is able to find an agency - so how does one avail themselves of work with major networks and shows?

The Workhouse

Enter music libraries. 90% of music libraries today do not pay anything for the inventory they have and typically acquire, at minimum, 50% of all revenue generated from music licensed from their catalogs.

Today, many libraries, through plenty of work and investment I'm sure, have privileged access to decision-makers at major networks, advertising conglomerates, and the bulk of significant media producers.

At the core of this business model is the transformation of the music buying process from working with an artisan or team of artisans to buying things off the shelf.

For the most part this means that the custom aspect of music composition has largely been eroded or at the very least presented as an economic and creative inconvenience to those who are now used to paying 50-400 dollars to use a track.

Think of it as an artisan baker working by themselves, then as part of a small collective, then eventually putting their wares on supermarket shelves. To give you an idea of scale, APM has >800000 tracks in its libraries, while Epidemic Sound boasts 170000 composers in its ranks.

The Dehumanization

In addition, these companies are able to offer blanket licenses covering large swathes of their composer base, who get paid from those deals not based on the usage of their music specifically, but the overall usage.

So someone may have 10 of their tracks used and have that revenue spread out across hundreds or thousands of other composers whose tracks were included in the blanket deal. In such a deal, great for customers and the library which gets 50% anyway, composers basically turn into factory egg-layers.

Growth Model

This zero-cost inventory business model coupled with an endlessly growing supply of composers across the world desperate for opportunities, who are also conveniently unable to communicate with each other or collectively bargain for better terms, has become so interesting that even venture capital and private equity have entered the picture - and we know what their goals are.

Epidemic Sound received 450M in funding in 2021 at a valuation of 1.4B, and I believe the play is most likely a simple one.

Burn cash to subsidize their rates to be hyper-competitive and grab as much market share as possible, while acquiring would-be-competitors in order to achieve a monopolistic position.

Grow, grow, grow, gain absolute negotiating power with its suppliers (Amazon, anyone?), go public, and then figure out how to be profitable.

For example, in 2020 they reported a 17% net loss while simultaneously reporting a 49% increase in revenue. In 2021, they continued to report net losses even as revenue continued to grow - with plenty of venture capital cash still in the coffers, this is a clear indicator of their long term strategy and business model.

Since they gave away what seems to be 30% of their equity in their last round of financing, I have no doubt that their shareholders will seek a quick exit, either in the form of an IPO or a further round of financing if the economic climate is unsuitable. Basically - everyone will benefit except the musicians who are the only reason this company can even exist.

The Boogeyman

Technology, AI and so forth are easy boogeymen to fear, but they are just tools that could make our lives much easier.

It is not technology that spells doom for professional composers, but rather, good old fashioned capitalistic consolidation which affects most of our revenue base - games, advertising, film, tv, and so on. 

Don't Do It

It is for this reason that I tell the many people who ask me for advice regarding their music careers not to bank on professional composing unless they are absolutely sure that this is the sinking ship that they want to board.

If that is the case, I am a fellow composer right there with you, desperately peddling tunes in our Sunday best as the fractured hull fills with water and the freezing night engulfs us slowly.

Buckle up, friend.