How to Develop Strategic Foresight

In my last blog, I introduced the concept of strategic foresight as a key tool to navigate today’s complex business environment in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world.

As a quick reminder, strategic foresight is a systematic method of analysing possible futures to help businesses prepare for the future and make better decisions. 

It involves considering a range of plausible futures, and then distilling them down to the most likely scenarios. Companies can then use this information to identify opportunities and challenges and align their strategies accordingly.

The Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) defines strategic foresight as “a structured and systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and better prepare for change.”

I now want to consider the steps Resilient business leaders can take to develop strategic foresight.

I hope my checklist below proves useful:

Scanning & scouting

These two foresight activities help organisations gather information about their external environment.

Scanning provides the foundation by capturing a wide array of information, whilst scouting helps identify emerging opportunities and trends that might not be readily available simply through scanning.

These two activities are essential for organisations to anticipate and respond effectively to industry changes and maintain a competitive advantage.

Topic Clustering

This foresight method identifies and categorises relevant topics or themes within a particular area.

Organisations use this to uncover emerging trends and patterns, understand interrelationships between different themes, and inform strategic decision-making.

Radars

Radars organise foresight intelligence including emerging technologies, trends, startups, or risks in a centralised and intuitive view.

This helps organisations derive insights more quickly and raise awareness about strategic focus areas and support collaboration by inviting collective, cross-functional input.

STEEP

This analysis tool assesses external factors and macro-level trends impacting an organisation’s future – helping business leaders identify and understand their external environment to inform strategic decision-making and long-term planning.

The acronym stands for Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political.

Knowledge gained helps organisations anticipate potential opportunities and threats, adapt their strategies, and make informed decisions to say ahead in a rapidly changing business landscape.

Scenario planning

This explores and prepares for potential future scenarios and their implications.

It involves developing multiple plausible future scenarios based on different combinations of key drivers and/or variable data trajectories.

It helps organisations develop a forward-looking perspective, foster innovation, and build resilience by considering multiple potential futures. Employing this tool, companies can better understand the challenges and opportunities they face – improving their ability to adapt and succeed in a rapidly changing world.

Opportunity framework

This systematic approach identifies and evaluates potential opportunities for a company – helping business leaders understand the future business landscape, emerging trends, and disruptive forces which may impact their industry or market.

By identifying new growth avenues and potential disruptions, it supports the development and adaptation of strategic plans, and is a common approach in new product development, market expansion, digital transformation, and risk management.

Tech S-curve

This helps organisations anticipate the future trajectory of a technology, identify opportunities and threats, and make informed decisions about investments, product developments, and market positioning.

It typically consists of three main phases – introduction, acceleration, and maturation – and helps companies adapt their strategies accordingly.

Look out for the next articles in this series – “The Importance of Strategic Foresight,” and “The Benefits of Strategic Foresight.”

If you need further information about these approaches, or any other resilience topic, please contact russell@theresiliencecoach.co.uk.