How do I make decisions in a Covid world?

Like all of you, I have been trying to figure out how to make decisions in this Covid world!

And I created a framework for myself (available at the end of the post, if you are in a hurry!)

But if, like most of us today, you have got the ultimate gift of TIME, then just read along.

Some parts are interesting. I promise.

So.. here goes:

The current Covid related chaos reminded me of the time I was being ragged in my 1st few days of engineering at IIT Bombay. My lovely Hostel 7 seniors rounded up (to put it politely) a bunch of "freshies" and demanded:

"Prove that when a butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, it rains in the Amazon"

I had no clue of what they were saying. And came up with some bizarre (or so I thought) connections to get out of the ragging episode and to the safety of my room.

I had just been introduced to the world of Complex Systems, Non-linearity, Chaos theory etc.

And as I was trying to make sense of the current Covid context and think about decisions to make and support - about family, about business, cash, people, jobs etc, I thought it might be worthwhile digging deeper to see if the ragging episode can help provide some direction or some framework to evaluate choices & make decisions.

So, how would a butterfly flapping its wings create rain in Amazon?

This is the nature of non-linear systems where early inputs and small changes can lead to unpredictable results. So, hey it could also lead to rains in Africa!

Linear systems are the ones where a standard input creates a standard output. Push a chair. It moves. Push twice as hard. It moves twice as much.

Yes. Yes. I know, ...you physics geeks, not exactly twice. It accelerates twice as much, dynamic/static friction, all else being equal... yadayadayada... but you get the point! :) .

Same input. Same output. Linear system!

Non-linearity: Listening to 2 songs you like at the same time does not create a song you like twice as much!

Logarithmic functions. Quadratic equations. Most real-life situations! :)

And if you are curious about Non-linear systems & Butterfly effect (aka Chaos Theory):

So, let's get to the central question:

How do we make decisions in a Covid world? Aka Butterfly effect world where a lot of butterflies seem to be flapping their wings at the same time!

Is there a Framework for decisions in high-ambiguity?

Here's a great TedX talk by a guy who leads Emergency Response - which invariably has high-ambiguity & unpredictable situations:

"The more complex the problem, the greater your strategic view has to be." - Eric Lang, Emergency Response.

In Complex situations, you have to step back and see the bigger picture. Distance yourself from the emotions. And then take the right decisions.

Complex? Complicated? Is there a difference? Is there Simple too?

How do I make out which is which? And how do I make decisions?

And what is the Covid situation?

Simple contexts: Standard business processes like Loan processing.

Domain of Best Practise. Leaders Sense , Categorize and Respond.

Complicated contexts: Contain many right answers. Known Unknowns. Need expertise.

Leaders have to Sense, *Analyze* and then Respond.

What is the difference between Complicated and Complex?

"Reaching decisions in the complicated domain can often take a lot of time, and there is always a trade-off between finding the right answer and simply making a decision. When the right answer is elusive, however, and you must base your decision on incomplete data, your situation is probably complex rather than complicated."

Complicated systems are when there are several well-defined relationships between cause and effect. If all of these relationships are known then we can predict the outcome of the actions. Launching a rocket is an example of complicated.

Complexity means that the exact relationships between things are neither known and possibly unknowable. Complexity does not mean general predictions can’t be made, but that exact predictions cannot. For example, weather is complex, but there are patterns to weather we can learn.

So, how do we deal with Complex & Complicated?

Think Manage. Not Solve.

"Complicated systems can be solved. Complex can only be managed.

Complicated thinkers need to control their ego to manage Complex systems.

Ecologist and complexity researcher C.S. Holling sums it up best when he states, “in complex systems, wealth should not be measured in money or power, but in the ability to adapt.”

A complexity mindset is a creative mindset. It focuses on what can be, rather than what is. A complexity mindset is an imaginative mindset, as different from a complicated mindset as the difference between thinking and knowing. Thinking is a creative process, while knowing is an information-retrieval process."

Chaos is a result. Not an event.

My take: Covid 19 has resulted in chaos due to the interactions of many decisions made by many individuals, corporations, media & governments in a mix of Simple, Complicated & Complex contexts.

Complex Contexts: The Domain of Emergence

Building a house is complicated. Building a business is complex.

"In the complex environment of the current business world, leaders often will be called upon to act against their instincts. They will need to know when to share power and when to wield it alone, when to look to the wisdom of the group and when to take their own counsel. A deep understanding of context, the ability to embrace complexity and paradox, and a willingness to flexibly change leadership style will be required for leaders who want to make things happen in a time of increasing uncertainty."

And for the Covid situation?

In the chaotic domain, a leader’s immediate job is not to discover patterns but to stanch the bleeding. A leader must first act to establish order, then sense where stability is present and from where it is absent, and then respond by working to transform the situation from chaos to complexity, where the identification of emerging patterns can both help prevent future crises and discern new opportunities. Communication of the most direct top-down or broadcast kind is imperative; there’s simply no time to ask for input.

So, after all the simple, complicated & complex reading, I made a table to help me decide. Hope this decision making framework helps you.

Two Four-word phrases (one in English & one in Hindi) have been going through my head since the Covid situation erupted:

Phrase 1: "This too shall pass"

(& as per corollary in the poster in my colleague, Nauzar Tata's desk,

"Yes. Like a kidney stone, it shall pass. But this too shall pass")

Phrase 2: "Sabki Suno. Apni Karo" . Listen to everyone's advice. But do what you feel is right.

Do write and let me know your thoughts. Would love to fine-tune the framework and help make better decisions. :)

Enjoy the ride.