How to end a war

In Europe, many of us grew up in peace. And we believed that we had largely resolved the issue of war. Rather unexpectedly, our thoughts are now with one priority - how to end this war. In today's world ending wars has become more complex. Unless we learn from history, we are destined to repeat it.

As we enter the uncertainties of a multipolar world of power, we realize the limits of our belief that nations can coexist peacefully. On the contrary, a conflict can be easily started but has become ever more complex to end.

Here are some reasons why and learnings from history on how to end a war.

1. Truisms about war

The general view today is that there are two truisms about war:

• For one, the nature of war does not change. There is always the brutal and uncontrolled aspect of fighting forces, which we strinkingly have failed to eradicate.
• What has changed over time is how war and conflict is prosecuted. It is more and more affected by technology. Warefare has evolved to become hybrid - an increasingly sophisticated use of technology to disorganise and threaten nations.

Advancements in technology have brought us into an era where, without even sending troops, war manifests itself with cyber-attacks, social media misinformation and aerial drone combats. Purpose-built messages in Social Media turn into impactful levers to steer social attention and mobilise masses for war.

What may go unnoticed is that, correspondingly, with technological advancements the price of going to war has increased outrageously. The frequency of war has gone up as well.

Globally wars and conflicts have doubled over the last 10 years. In 2020 only, 169 conflicts and wars waged around the globe, whereas 82 armed conflicts had been registered in 2010. A devastating toll of 80'000 lives lost in 2020, with humanitarian catastrophies in Syria, Afghanistan and Armenia–Azerbaijan. (UCPD Uppsala Conflict Data Program)

2. War does not end in victories

Most wars do not end in victory. In the last 30 years, there have been more negotiated endings to wars rather than "victories".

Other ways out of war are peace or cease-fire agreements which are freezing the conflict. Eventually, prolongued conflict may also result in the splintering of one of the fighting parties - most often in the course of intra-state conflicts.

From research we know that about 30% wars end with a victory on one side, 20% with an international peace agreement whereas the latter has become less and less over the last 10 years. (UCPD)

In fact, there is a rather vague notion of what is considered peace. Paradoxically, peace always requires two enemies and can emerge from conflict as either negative or positive peace.

Negative peace is the absence of physical violence. Positive peace is the absence physical and structural violence, structural as in in critical inequalities in society. (Global Peace Index GPI / EIP)

EIP developped in 2007 - at lowest historic levels in intra/inter-state wars - a universal framework called the Pillars of Peace. The framework describes the factors which make a country more peaceful (figure).

As a harsh conclusion, positive peace does not exist in today's world. It is rather a target state you want to achieve.

3. How to end a war

So how to end a war. Historically, there have been two learnings on ending a war.

First, UCPD's research concludes that armed conflicts have ended most often through sanctions. Over the last 25 to 30 years, 30% of sanctions statistically resulted in change course and ended war. International sanctions have proven to be the most effective - in particular when announced as a threat, yet not implemented.

It goes without saying that there is a much wider debate about sanctions, as the humanitarian impact on the most vulnerable parts of the population is cruel. (UCPD)

Secondly, the longer a conflict lasts, the greater the chances to invite the enemies to convene around one table. This can result in a shared agreement to end the war. "Without negotiations, we cannot end this war", Zelensky responded to CNN last week. "If there is only 1% chance to end this war, I am ready for it."

4. A world adrift - what happens next?

In modern times, inter-state conflicts such as the Ukraine war are extremely rare and tragic. This war is painfully putting human dignity to a test: "We learn from history that we do not learn from history." So was Hegel right after all?

Not exactly. From all learnings of the past, I believe we have to redefine some of our assumptions for the future. How can we deal better with a rather unpredictable and complex world which may not thrive on consensus and majority.

After decades of peace, it is foreseable that the limits of our planet require us to be more realistic about dealing with a difficult equation in supply and demand. Imminent shifts in supply chains will force us to rethink in Europe our short term profits pools and long term values. These considerations must go far beyond increased national spent on military defence.

Tragically it appears that hard work is in front of us to reinvigorate the value of human dignity and to reinvest our efforts in building nations that thrive on peaceful coexistence. Personally I hope there will be room for cooperation and compromise rather than growing polarization.

I grew up in times of peace. I don’t want to grow old in war. Unless we learn from history, we are destined to repeat it.

May a peace come to Europe soon. Every life lost is one too many.

Mirjam

If you wish to reframe your perspective on future society, AXA Foresight recently issued the "ProgressLand" report which invites you to project you into a future without war - and with Purpose.