How to Make Strategic Decisions When the Future is Unclear

Uncertainty—it’s the one constant in today’s world. Whether it’s the rise of AI, shifts in the global market, or unexpected industry changes, leaders today are faced with making high-stakes decisions in unpredictable environments. Don't get me wrong, strategy has always been about the future and thus has had a flavour of uncertainty about it, but not like this, not coming at us from all angles and with potential extremes like we've not had in decades. Barrage is a word that springs to mind 🧐

But here’s the good news: You don’t have to fear uncertainty. With the right strategic framework, you can make decisions that not only weather the storm(s) but also set you up for long-term success. 

Why Strategic Decision-Making Matters   

A study by McKinsey found that companies that are quick to make decisions and adapt during periods of uncertainty are more likely to outperform their competitors by 30%. Yet, only 20% of leaders feel confident in their decision-making abilities when faced with uncertainty. 

Can I just ask you to take a pause and read those two sentances again? That's really significant for leaders if we are going to create a future that's bright using strategies that are hopeful...  

Three Strategies for Making Strategic Decisions in Uncertainty   

1. Scenario Planning   

One of the most powerful tools at our disposal is scenario planning—mapping out potential futures and preparing for each one. This allows you to adapt to different possibilities without being caught off-guard. Scenario planning gives you a clearer picture of the future possibility, it also allows you to explore what could go wrong using the pre-mortem concept.

Action Step: Pick one major decision you’re currently facing and create three potential scenarios as outcomes. For each scenario outcome, outline the actions you would take to get there and then really try and drill down into the potential impact on your organisation: good and bad. Top Tip: Get diverse thinking into the room, diversity in terms of expertise and experience, generational diversity (boomers and alphas please!) and also embrace neurodiversity too - a powerful collaboration of different minds thinking with uniquenesses that power up any brainstorm.

2. Lead with Data, Guided by Intuition   

This one is key. In times of uncertainty, data can be your best friend—but don’t overlook your intuition. Great leaders know how to balance data-driven insights with gut instinct to make bold decisions. You've got to remember we are poised at a point in society where trust in data is at an all time low (quite rightly in many regards I believe). Also, remember Simon Sinek's The Optimism Company and his famous Golden Circle Video with the all powerful quote: "I know that's what the data says, but it just doesn't feel right."

Action Step: Next time you’re making a decision, gather all relevant data but also take a moment to reflect on your instincts. What does your gut tell you? What are your senses bring up? What's your heart saying?

3. Empower Your Team   

You don’t have to make decisions alone - like seriously can we all as leaders once and for all recognise we are not some almighty person on a throne being fed everything only to make statement solutions like gods please!!!?? Involve your team in the decision-making process to gather diverse perspectives. Research shows that diverse teams outperform non-diverse ones by 35%, thanks to their range of ideas and solutions . 

Action Step: Before making your next strategic decision, stop before you put the usual suspects in the room together for a brainstorming session. Maybe ask everyone to bring someone with them? Diversity and perspectives...repeat this three times in the mirror please 😁😂😁

  “All failure is failure to adapt, all success is successful adaptation.”― Max McKeown Adaptability: The Art of Winning in an Age of Uncertainty

These are only three ideas, there are so many more - but just starting with these and making them non-negotiables in our leadership practice is enough to move the needle.

There's more - Oh yes there is more! And if you want to nail your strategic leadership once and for all in an AI-enabled world, then why not join my next Digital Leadership 2.0 Masterclass series starting next month.

Or Download the brochure with application and content details HERE:

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