How a US-Russia Alliance Could Reshape the Global Order 🇺🇸🇷🇺

International politics is entering a potential period of realignment, marked by Donald Trump’s election and the shift of the US Congress to a Republican majority in November 2024. This new political landscape could redirect diplomatic and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding Russia and China. An alliance between Washington and Moscow could have profound implications, ranging from ending the war in Ukraine to straining the strategic partnership between Russia and China.

A US-Russia Alliance: A Shift in Global Dynamics

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the economic isolation imposed on Moscow by the West, Russia has strengthened its ties with China. However, this alliance rests on asymmetric foundations:

• Russia increasingly plays the role of a "junior partner," dependent on Chinese purchases of gas and oil.
• Tensions exist in shared spheres of influence, particularly in Central Asia and the Arctic.

A rapprochement with the United States could offer Moscow a viable alternative, reducing its dependency on Beijing and restoring its role as an autonomous strategic actor.

The American Plan: Divide and Conquer

Donald Trump, known for his transactional approach, could seek to reorient US-Russia relations through strategic, economic, and diplomatic agreements. Here are the possible axes of this strategy:

1. Reduction of Sanctions on Russia

A partial or total lifting of economic sanctions could be used as leverage to attract Moscow. This gesture, combined with investment opportunities from the US, would provide Russia with an alternative to revitalize its economy while limiting its reliance on China.

2. Negotiations to End the War in Ukraine

Trump could aim to end the war in Ukraine through compromises that partially align with Russian interests while allowing Moscow to present itself as a responsible diplomatic actor. This would reduce US-Russia tensions and decrease Moscow’s need to depend on China.

3. Focus on China as the Primary Rival

The United States views China as its main long-term strategic rival. Isolating Beijing would weaken China’s ability to project global influence, particularly if Russia becomes more neutral or cooperative.

4. Energy and Technological Agreements

The US could propose deals in strategic sectors such as energy and military technology, offering Russia alternatives to its cooperation with China.

Major Geopolitical Consequences

1. Ending the War in Ukraine: A Compromised Peace

• For Ukraine: This scenario could impose territorial concessions on Kyiv, weakening its sovereignty and Euro-Atlantic ambitions. In return, Ukraine might receive minimal security guarantees.
• For Europe: Ending the conflict would relieve European economies but spark debates over American loyalty to its European allies.

2. A Rift Within NATO

• Eastern European members, like Poland and the Baltic states, would view this rapprochement as a threat, strengthening their independent defense initiatives.
• A divisive dynamic would weaken the transatlantic alliance.

3. Strategic Isolation of China

• Weakened Partnership: China would lose a key ally in its confrontation with the West.
• Energy Challenges: A reorientation of Russian exports toward the West would limit China’s access to strategic resources.

4. Redefinition of the Global Order

• Restored Bipolarity: A US-Russia axis would strengthen bilateral relations at the expense of the current multilateral system.
• Weakening Anti-Western Blocs: Actors like Iran or North Korea would find themselves isolated in the face of a US-Russia coalition.

5. Economic Opportunities for Russia

• Lifting sanctions, restoring Western investments, and gaining access to new technologies could stimulate Russian growth.

Risks and Limits of a US-Russia Alliance

• Persistent Distrust: An alliance between two former rivals remains fragile and could quickly face strategic or ideological divergences.
• Chinese Reactions: China could strengthen its economic and military alliances with other emerging countries, creating a rival bloc.
• European Tensions: EU countries might feel marginalized, straining transatlantic cooperation.

Conclusion: An Uncertain New Era

A US-Russia rapprochement under Trump could disrupt the Russia-China alliance, reshaping the global geopolitical chessboard. Its success would depend on managing divergent interests and the reactions of emerging powers. Such an alliance could weaken China but also provoke new tensions on a global scale, making the geopolitical future both promising and unpredictable.

Aïssa Christophe Agostini

Founder & CEO

Prosper Atlas

prosperatlas.com

#Geopolitics #USRussia #GlobalOrder #China #InternationalRelations #ForeignPolicy #Diplomacy #TrumpAdministration #NATO #EnergyPolitics