How Well Did You Predict 2024? Feel Free to Grade Me…How Well Did I Do?

With less than a month to go, 2024 will soon be history. And, what history it will be! 

Wars…hate...storms…poverty…elections...etc…which is exactly how I began my annual Cloudy Crystal Ball (going into its 20th+ year) last year:

“War...Hatred…Terrorism…Elections…Fake News…Natural Disaster…Not So Natural Disaster…”

And why I suggested, then, that my usually Cloudy view was now also muddied. However, I am not yet up to my Nostradamus gig for 2025 (it's coming soon). 

In my never-ending quest to help foster accountability, I will (as I always do) open myself up to your ridicule, slings and arrows, tomatoes, disdain, and plain old dissing (KJA…keep it civil and with a point) as I look back and unlike the analysts, pundits, and assorted industry experts who change their views, without shame, every time they think the market might have changed. Review my thoughts and see how close or far off I was and what we can learn from either.

Here is a recap of my Muddy Forward Look for 2024, followed by my scorecard in BOLD (so I can't hide it). 

1. "LIVE EVENTS: Once called Live Events (LOL, still called Live Events)…full of people who attend and dress up, buy merchandise and food, and fill up stadiums and venues of all sizes for sports and entertainment. See Vegas. Are they digital first? Only to the DIGIBABBLE crowd…to themselves, digital just is. Sure, like all that we do, there is digital enhancement…tickets, paying, posting, yadda yadda…but WAKE-UP—it's LIVE!”

a. I took my granddaughter to Taylor Swift. Need I say more? And sporting events continue to grow.

2. “RETAIL: I use the term in all its glory…meaning any purchase made by a consumer. Who cares if it's online, in a brick-and-mortar, or hybrid? And, Omni-Channel will lose its appeal because it's not about the channel…it's all about the consumer, who shops where and how they want and will. We will see more physical stores open…including in A+ Malls…with more attention to actual merchandising and marketing, more focus on real service, and more emphasis on the consumer and product and less on algorithmic selling.”

a. Here's the latest going into Christmas: Walmart and Costco (US) have outrun many tech names. It doesn't make Tech weak or Retail strong. It shows the resilience of the sector and the power of the consumer.

3. “FRAUD: It will continue to be uncovered throughout the start-up and financial worlds. As I predicted last year (and scored), a growing focus on actual performance and returns unearthed some doozies. No need to recap...more to come. Critical Question: When will Boards start taking more accountability, not to mention auditors and the big investors who made boat-loads shorting.”

a. Search the term. Crazy! There are more stories than ever…more coverage than ever…more schemes than ever, with AI being the latest frontier—the more Tech…, the more fraud.

4. “VR/AR AND THE METAVERSE: The surefire bet of CES, only a few short years ago (Metaverse would change everything)…has fizzled. Not that there aren't smart and powerful use cases (there are…), but they aren't as enticing or investor-hyping as in all your office will meet in your Metaverse Real Estate…in full-on Avatar mode. (How's that going for you?”

a. BE HONEST…not in your top corporate initiatives in 2024 (unless you were in the business…we get that) and for sure not in 2025.

5. “BLOCKCHAIN: You remember…the 100% hack-proof way to conquer all web security issues—until it wasn't. By this time, according to the pundits of the past, all of our systems, all of our infrastructure, should have been riding on Blockchain…Hmmmmmm. Again, there are great use cases. But is it the end all? My bet? Not going to hear much—if at all.”

a. Of course, there are still amazing use cases and workstreams, but once again…probably not in your top 3 initiatives in 2024 or moving forward in 25. Except for President-elect Trump and the once and future First Lady (no politics), whose selling of NFTs is legendary…it's a use case. Whatever…

6. “CRYPTO: Fraud piles on fraud. Money is made by betting on it. Vegas rules…there will always be an audience. Someone will always make a profit, but more will suffer as the profit is sucked from them. Is there a use case? I imagine, but not being an economist, I'm at a loss. All the workstreams around accepting Crypto for donations (NGOs) and purchases (retailers) will fade. Critical Thought: Never discount a good use case.”

a. ¾ credit. Who knew that a President-elect would change his view 180 degrees and hype Crypto? Nevertheless, the framework I suggested is still right.

7. “OFFICE: Ok…I have been ranting since Covid. I took a contrarian position about WFH/ANYWHERE vs Hybrid. It wasn't popular. To be fair, I warned that jobs would dry up and companies would get fed up with those who needed to walk their dogs when someone needed a meeting. And yes, KNEE JERK ALERT…we all get it. Some have never had to work in an office (and you never will)…so it goes. But as I predicted, more and more companies are demanding 3/4 days a week in…that's their hybrid. We are going to see more demand for the same. Enough with the...it's easier to be creative from away...I waste too much time commuting….my gym needs me. Figure out how to make it work for yourself. Be the one who goes back and leads the pack.”

a. More and more are demanding a commitment, and the demands are getting stronger as adherence has been spotty. Like I said…be the leader. It's a win/win.

8. “SOCIAL MEDIA: It's going to be a brutal year. It's already shaping up. As always, a big part is in the reverse megaphone. Trump posts on his platform, but mainstream media picks it up and amplifies and then everyone who hates him shares it. Do none of them understand how it all works? However, we will see more attempts at legislation/regulation. There will be more emphasis on kids' safety and a better attempt at defining Free Speech and accountability. Meanwhile, hate will grow as it adds revenue on the platforms that promote it the most—like TikTok.”

a. It was brutal. It began with hearings in Washington DC on Child Safety…Meta and TikTok were skewered. X leaned into Free Speech and took some lumps but continued to grow bi-partisanly despite Musk. Trump has a different view on TikTok despite his feud with China, and Bluesky promises no advertising or whatever...Right?

9. “STREAMING: Help me here. Why are we having conversations about if it's viable? HELLO….streaming is here until the next big evolution…maybe telepathic transmission? (LOL! That's not the question.) Years ago, I wrote about cutting the cord and getting strangled in the threads, as is happening. We pay for service after service, chasing down one show or another with a cost higher than cable. Wake up, dump one or more (CHURN BABY CHURN)…and re-up for the next show we want. We need a new model…not tech. Think Cable bundles…”

a. SO RIGHT ON…and more to come.

10. “MOVIES: It's the experience. Of course, we can stream them (even the best ones after a few weeks), but some movies just need big screens, great audiences, and the smell of popcorn. Think Live Event. No, they are not dead. Think life support…but still shuffling along. Movie theaters will continue to evolve...food, seats, and special features beyond the previews (a return to a distant past on that).”

a. Barbie and Oppenheimer, followed by Wicked and Gladiator 2 (a year later), with Dune and a slew of slasher flicks in the middle. And don't forget Deadpool and Wolverine. And I'm forgetting one or two. Our new movie economy is still evolving…but evolving it is. Meanwhile, keep the popcorn popping.

11. TV: (This includes streaming, which is only a delivery mechanism like broadcast or cable): The content has never been better. The content has never been worse. (It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.) There is way too much…the odds are not working in favor of a majority of good content. My muddy thought is that we will see less content being created…but hopefully better content—less binge-dropping and more smart marketing, demand-creating, one episode at a time. The news will focus on local, again…via streaming and broadcast, and we will begin to see interactive TV guides that will be useful across all delivery platforms.

a. Yup…not much to add…

12. ADVERTISING: The rumors of its death are not only exaggerated but ignorant (HELL—"the entire infrastructure of the digital world is fueled by advertising…ads.) No matter what you call them or how you cut them, most of them look like the commercials of the last century…but not as good (and certainly not as memorable—How many licks does it take to get to the center of a Tootsie Roll pop?). We will see more back to basic marketing. Less reliance on mindless programmatic ad buying and more on insightful targeting and smarter use of data. Faster and/or cheaper will be relegated to the dustbin (where it belongs) as advertising needs to be as good as the content it is attached to—which is neither faster nor cheaper. Experiential will actually mean an experience…not some DIGIBABBLE BS. And, there will be more payment/subscriptions available to avoid or at least reduce interference.”

a. Dare I say Super Bowl? World Cup? Streaming services? Out of Home? Podcasts? Gaming? Even In-APP? Makes the point.

13. “POLITICS: It's not going to be a pretty year...and the world seems to be swinging center-right.”

a. No comment…and I took heat on this.

14. AI: Too obvious and fluid to date to predict. Develop use cases!!! It will continue to be a hot topic with a lot more discussion on copyright issues, use cases, and pundits claiming it's the end of life as we know it...more to come on this one.

a. And continue to develop those use cases!!!!

And there you have it. Laid bare before you…NOT BAD!!!! Go back over the last 20 years or so…not bad at all in aggregate. It pays to be a contrarian and to leave the DIGIBABBLE to others… 

In the end, one must never forget the immortal words of one of the great philosophers and sports icons of the last century…Yogi Berra:

“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Stay tuned for 2025. And weigh in on the close of 2024…