The Hunger Crisis: Investigating Food Insecurity in Landlocked Developing Countries through a Systems-thinking Lens

Written by: Chan Jun Hao Anselm, Fathinah Al-Husna, Jeffrey Lim Zerui, Lin Htet Marlar, Low Leng Ee

ABSTRACT

According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), the issue of food insecurity has become an increasingly prevalent issue, which has affected the livelihood of many people in the world (FAO et al., 2021). According to the Global Hunger Index 2022, 40% of the top 10 countries most affected by hunger and malnutrition are Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs). (Statista Research Department & 25, 2022) Hence, this White Paper aims to study the food insecurity situation specifically in LLDCs, as they are most at risk. The various underlying reasons, mainly geographical disadvantage and corruption, as well as current measures, are explored using a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). Through a Systems Thinking lens, we propose political restructuring, education on agricultural land management and improvement in trade accessibility to address the points of leverage identified in our CLD.

Food insecurity in Landlocked Developing Countries

What is food insecurity?

Food insecurity is defined as the inability to have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet dietary needs by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA, 2021).

What are landlocked developing countries?

A developing country is defined to be a sovereign state with a lesser developed industrial base and lower Human Development Index relative to other countries (Sullivan & Sheffrin, 2003). Being landlocked means they lack access to the sea, which results in challenges such as remoteness from the major markets, dependency on transit countries, infrastructural constraints and high trade transaction costs (Chaudhary, 2021).

Background to problem

Food insecurity is correlated to poverty, global hunger and malnutrition. It significantly affects labour productivity and economic growth. For LLDCs, their lack of direct access to open sea results in high transport and transit costs, putting them at a greater economic disadvantage as compared to other countries (Greb & Rapsomanikis, 2015). Therefore, the level of economic development of LLDCs is 20% lower than non-landlocked countries (UN-OHRLLS, 2013). This problem of food insecurity is closely tied to the landlocked nature of these LLDCs. (Fig 2) If food insecurity in LLDCs is left unresolved, these nations will be trapped in a vicious cycle.

Our Vision

To tackle this problem of food insecurity, we have framed our goals into vision statements for greater scoping of this issue. We envision a world where all people can enjoy food security regardless of their geographical or economic situation. This entails all people having physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs to lead a healthy life. 

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Underlying factors leading to Food Insecurity in LLDCs (Reinforcing Loops)

Political: Corruption

Increase in corruption results in less successful economic policies (Olken, 2012), decreasing the quality of the value chain. This leads to a less equal distribution of food, increasing food insecurity. When there is greater food insecurity, the quality of citizens’ basic needs decreases, allowing for less involvement in the country’s politics due to the need to focus on primary survival first. This decreases the level of checks and balances on the government, reinforcing corrupt practices (R1).

Moreover, an increase in corruption decreases the amount of resources allocated to alleviate geographical disadvantages. This results in the decrease of quality transport infrastructure and efficiency. This tends to cause a greater loss of crops during transport, decreasing the imported supply, consequently widening the gap between food supply and demand as less food makes it from farm to table, leading to the increase in food insecurity (R2). This would eventually increase corruption (R1).

Social: Malnutrition Levels

Increased food insecurity increases malnutrition levels, which undermines the ability to work (R3), decreasing an individuals’ income in both the agricultural (R3) and industrial market (R4). The consequent lower ability to afford food exacerbates food insecurity. 

International: International Aid

An increase in food insecurity in LLDCs leads to greater advent of international aid, but LLDCs become increasingly reliant, increasing their complacency. This leads to a decreasing allocation of resources to geographical disadvantage down the line. Concurrent is a decrease in the quality of transport infrastructure, making transport more inefficient, which increases the loss of crops. This decreases the supply of imported food, increasing the gap between food supply and demand, worsening food insecurity (R6).

Furthermore, increased governments’ complacency reduces investments in irrigation systems. Worse irrigation systems and more infertile land decrease crop yields, increasing the gap between supply and demand, which increases food insecurity (R7).

Evaluation of Current Measures with Shifting the Burden Archetype

International Aid

LLDCs have been receiving different forms of external aid including direct international aid. An example of this symptomatic solution is Burkina Faso, located in West Africa that receives monthly monetary and direct food donations under the World Food Programme (WFP, 2022.) This aids in school feeding programmes, and value chains but these only temporarily reduce food insecurity (B2). 

Agricultural education 

Agricultural education provided by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, educates farmers on efficient and sustainable farming processes in order to maximise crop yield and agricultural productivity to decrease food insecurity (B1). These Farmer Field Schools (FFS) and Farm Business School (FBS) in Azerbaijan and Malawi (Achmadi, 2022) are examples of fundamental solutions that leave sustainable impacts.

Collaboration with other countries

Another fundamental solution is discussion and agreements such as The Almaty Programme of Action and Vienna Programme of Action that successfully create more effective transit regimes, increasing LLDC’s access to overseas markets. (Secretary-General, U. N., 2011) This reduces the cost of trade, increasing export earning and income for these nations (B3). The lower cost of trade decreases prices of imported agricultural resources, such as fertilisers, leading to greater use by farmers. This decreases the infertility of land, improving crop yield, which is sold for more income (B4). People’s ability to afford food thus increases, reducing food insecurity. Additionally, increased crop yield directly increases local food supply, closing the gap between food supply and demand (B5).

The fundamental solutions ensure self-sustainability (B1) but the symptomatic international aid encourages reliance on external aid resulting in a complacent government that reduces the effectiveness of these fundamental solutions (R8 and R9). As such, the points of leverage in this “Shifting the Burden” archetype are the reliance on external aid and effective transit regimes.

Evaluation of Current Measures with Growth and Underinvestment Archetype

Investment in Irrigation Systems

Increased crop yield brings in more income to buy more seeds, allowing increased planting (R10). However, crop yield quantity is limited by infertile land, due to inappropriate farming techniques (Brussels, 2009). This creates a perceived need to invest in irrigation systems based on the people’s knowledge of how to improve infertile land. The delayed investment and implementation of the irrigation system reduces the area of infertile land and increases crop yield. (B7) For instance, the World Bank has invested a total of US$32 million in Mozambique’s management and reinforcement of the country’s dam foundations and infrastructures, covering about 37,000 hectares of arable land (Saute & Mahoque, 2017). This has helped at least 50,000 farmers and traders in their production and marketing activities, which contributes to the price stability of staples and main produce in the region. 

From this “Growth and Underinvestment” archetype, the leverage point is to increase the people’s knowledge of how to improve infertile land, so as to support the investments in irrigation systems.

Solutions

Political Restructuring: Achieving Good Governance

Good governance is imperative in ensuring a functioning nation. Corruption can have severe efficiency costs such as undoing a government’s ability to correct externalities and misdirecting international aid. (Olken & Pande, 2012) Restructuring a government, ensures greater accountability, which addresses the underlying problem of corruption (R1) and reduces reliance on external aid present in the Shifting the Burden archetype. 

To comprehensively address problems with governance in LLDCs, we propose establishing a separation of power to increase checks and balances on the government while deterring dictatorships. (Olken, 2012) Fundamental solutions enacted by the nations would have greater success, decreasing food insecurity in the long run. The establishment of dedicated governmental bodies will firstly streamline legislative processes to increase transparency and accountability through structured government committees - this can be further strengthened by allowing public scrutiny on political discussions. Secondly, these bodies dedicated to specific sectors, such as Trade and Transport, and Agricultural Development, will create local means of sufficiency with more focused effort on their respective domains. Self-sufficiency protects these nations from vulnerability in the long-term when financial aid is no longer channeled.

The effectiveness of this restructuring is evident in countries with high fiscal transparency such as Columbia and Paraguay where the public are able to scrutinise physical financial progress of investment projects. (Gaspar, Mauro & Medas, 2019)

Optimising irrigation: Agricultural education on arable land

Different weather seasons would bring about changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, affecting crop productions. (Konduri et al., 2001) It is of paramount importance for farmers in these LLDCs to understand the weather seasons and what crops to grow, especially due to their limited access to water. As mentioned in Section 2.3, the lack of knowledge on improving infertile land results in underinvestment in irrigation systems during harvest seasons. Education on seasonal crop cultivation methods will therefore increase yield and food security. 

Understanding crop yield requirements

Different crops require different amounts of water to grow. For example, soybeans require 450-700mm of water while bananas require 1200-2200mm of water to grow. (Singh, 2010) Understanding such figures allow farmers to optimise water usage in their already water-scarce situation, and maximise the benefits for their crops. (Hollinger & Angel, 2009)

Irrigation Systems Scheduling and Upgrading

Irrigation systems are also closely tied to the weather. Irrigation scheduling can be done, where the time and quantity of an irrigation is adjusted. Detailed instructions of managing irrigation systems and upgrading schedules can be provided to the farmers for better control over their irrigation systems, to maximise investment in irrigation systems in line with the seasons and weather patterns. (National Research Council, 2007)

By understanding harvesting seasons and importance of irrigation systems on arable land, farmers can foresee the need to upgrade irrigation systems prior to the harvesting season. This allows sufficient time to complete the upgrade and manage the higher crop yields. With a change in mindsets and sufficient fundings, this solution is feasible in increasing arable land and their crop yield as farmers would have greater knowledge to make educated decisions for maximum use of their irrigation systems.

Increasing economic growth: Improving trade accessibility

Currently, collaboration between LLDCs and other countries should result in creation of effective transit regimes (B3). However, effective transit regimes can be redundant if the transport system is not able to keep up with the increased flow of transportation. Hence, LLDCs can improve their transport system, which consists of physical infrastructure and border controls, to improve their connectivity.

Physical infrastructure

Landlocked developing countries can adopt a vignette toll system to ensure it has sufficient funds for the maintenance of roads and infrastructures. Frequent maintenance can be implemented to ensure faults and defects do not snowball. Railways can be connected to neighbouring countries with large capacities for greater trade capacity. Investments into railway systems should be analysed with economic growth such that operating costs are minimised and covered. Investments should be made into technology for higher efficiency and lower operating costs.

Border Controls

Lawmakers can implement strict and clear policies for good border controls. Customs should be sufficiently staffed for smooth facilitation of procedures. An integrated IT system can be used to track the movement of people. Sufficient checks need to be made at checkpoints to ensure legal goods are traded. Trade routes and fixed schedules of delivery can be agreed for good crowd management. (World Bank Group, 2014)

With a functional transport system and efficient border controls, LLDCs would have larger economic activities and connectivity to the world’s trade. However, these would require much government fundings which LLDCs may not have in the short-run.

Conclusion 

This whitepaper has discussed the causes and impacts surrounding food insecurity in LLDCs. Through the CLD and discovery of system archetypes present, we have attempted to target the leverage points and formulated specialised solutions to prevent the causes of food insecurity from snowballing. True change takes more than quick fixes but true persistent commitment to ensure the success of our goals. 

This problem will require collaboration of diverse stakeholders - citizens, farmers, businessmen, governments and even the larger international organisations. We are sure that these efforts would pay off in the long run and help mitigate the problem of food insecurity in these LLDCs, allowing us to achieve our vision where “all people can enjoy food security regardless of their geographical or economic situation”.

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