IBA's Aviation Carbon Emissions Index - November 2022

IBA has published its latest aviation Carbon Index in partnership with KPMG. In our latest analysis, we used IBA NetZero to shine a light on the viability of certain pathways to net-zero.

Summary analysis

Aviation carbon emissions intelligence from IBA NetZero reveals that CO2 emissions from the commercial aviation industry averaged 142.5 grams of CO2 per-seat-per mile in November 2022, increasing 0.3% from October. This is only the third month-on-month increase in 2022, but the second since September. This represents a 1.4% reduction in CO2 intensity year-on-year.

The total number of flights in November decreased by 8.9% from October. Monthly emissions from passenger operations decreased at a similar rate, 7.7%, totalling 49.8 million tonnes of CO2.

Year-on-year comparisons continue to show increasing passenger confidence and demand, with monthly emissions up 17% from November 2021. Flight numbers remain 20.5% down to pre-pandemic levels in November 2019, but aircraft efficiency improvements are obvious, with emissions down 24.2% in the same period.

In the news: what happened in Global sustainable aviation in November 2022?

• The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) released the findings of a study into a frequent flyer levy, stating that it could provide an equitable and substantial source of finance for aviation decarbonisation. The tax would focus on frequent flyers taking more than 6 flights per year, and the ICCT argue it could provide 81% of the $121 billion ICAO state would be required for aviation decarbonisation.
• British Airways have announced an addition to their ‘CO2llaborate’ online platform, an option to purchase carbon removal credits, alongside their existing options of SAF and carbon offsetting. The platform allows passengers to address the footprint of their flights through a slider mechanism that determines the percentage of each method. BA’s removals will utilise nature-based solutions to store carbon for hundreds of years, in comparison to offsetting, which only provides short-term durability. Two projects have been identified: a mangrove restoration in Pakistan and a biochar scheme in Oregon, USA.
• Rolls-Royce and easyJet have conducted their first test of a prototype green hydrogen engine as part of their partnership to decarbonise through zero-emission flight. The ground-based test was conducted at a UK military aircraft testing site, Boscombe Down. In addition, Lufthansa Technik have converted a decommissioned A320 to include a liquid hydrogen tank and fuel cell to test ground infrastructure.
• UK based lessor MONTE has signed orders of up to ninety zero-emission commuter aircraft to deliver to short-haul operators looking to decarbonise. Fifty of these will be hybrid-electric upgrades of the Cessna Grand Caravan, which cut emissions by up to 70% (and will be effectively carbon-neutral when used with SAF). MONTE has also signed a letter of intent to buy 40 modification kits to convert small aircraft to hydrogen-electric propulsion systems.
• Neste continues to expand its network globally and has signed a deal with French port operator Compagnie Industrielle Maritime (CIM) to import blended SAF to Le Havre, then to be pumped to airports around the country. Neste have also delivered 500,000 gallons of blended SAF to LAX, and forged a partnership with Canada’s WestJet to use on both domestic and international flights.
• United have invested up to $37.5m in a new Oregon biorefinery to boost SAF production on the US West Coast. United’s sustainability-focused investment sector, United Airlines Ventures, has invested in NEXT Renewable Fuels which is building a biofuels refinery in Oregon. The plant expects to produce up to 750 million gallons per year of SAF and other renewable fuels and will make a significant contribution to increasing supply and ease of access for West Coast carriers.

IBA NetZero empowers users with unparalleled clarity in CO2 emissions analysis, mapping out potential mitigation strategies and projecting cost over time. 

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Aircraft efficiency in November 2022

The evolving makeup of the global fleet is a product of emerging utilisation trends and incoming regulation. Last month, our analysis focused on regional attitudes to CORSIA, and we continue to see incremental shifts in global fleet composition by aircraft type, This is partly driven by an evolving policy landscape. The value of an efficient fleet has already encouraged fleet renewal throughout the pandemic, and industry recovery but will become increasingly obvious as policy is made more stringent.  

As in recent months, the 737-800’s share of total monthly CO2 continued to drop in November, reaching a low of 13.6%. This represents a 1% decrease since October, and a 1.52% decrease since September. Similarly, the A320-200 has decreased 0.7% month-on-month since October, while next generation aircraft types such as the A320-200neo and the A350 have grown 0.1% and 0.3% respectively in share of total emissions since October. Utilisation trends driven by sector demand also influences the global aircraft mix, but IBA expect the share of old generation aircraft, such as the 737-800, to continue to decline in the coming months and years.

IBA Opinion: the viability of the pathways to net-zero?

This month’s news highlights in sustainable aviation featured a wide breadth of pathways to net-zero, from the continuation of SAF offtake agreements and zero-emission flight technologies, to market-based measures and carbon removals. We used IBA NetZero to shine a light on the viability of these strategies with a target and mitigation mix analysis, leveraging our insights into required commitments and the actual potential of SAF.

Based on our expertise, we have developed this 2050 mitigation pathway analysis, split between market-based measures, efficiency as a result of fleet renewal, SAF, electric and hydrogen flight (with no drop-in fuel) and carbon capture. Following on our CORSIA analysis in October, the importance of market-based measures in the short to medium-term is undeniable. Policies will shape the aviation industry in the coming decades and provide the unilateral support and finance networks to boost the supply of practical solutions to lowering emissions.

Unlike attempts to recover nature-based solutions to carbon removal, our pathway analysis only includes mechanical direct air capture (DAC) with long-term storage of carbon. These technologies require significant further development, but the addition of carbon removals to manage passenger footprints represents an important step from operators.

SAF will be the dominant force in aviation decarbonisation by 2030.  Despite a marked spike in offtake agreements and multiple partnerships between operators and fuel providers in the past few years, the actual scaled impact of SAF is still relatively unknown. As such, we analysed the various types of SAF, differentiated by feedstock and refining process, and the actual embodied emissions they would mitigate under a 2030 EU SAF mandate of a 5% blend. The results shown are the percentage difference between the SAF fuel and Jet-A for November’s total emissions.

Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) feedstocks, the most abundant existing refining process for SAF, delivers a carbon reduction of around 4% from Jet-A. However, the largest reductions will come from synthesis conversion methods, using alcohol and power-to-liquid techniques. Remarkably, two types of SAF actually increase carbon emissions as a result of an intensive feedstock farming and refining processes.

All of these methods will require significant investment to reach cost parity with Jet-A, if they ever do. The key for operators and partners in the short-term is to identify the most efficient and cost-effective SAF type to ensure aviation remains on a viable net-zero pathway. IBA NetZero helps you identify and shine a light on these unknowns. 

IBA NetZero is the most advanced finance-focused carbon modelling tool available. It's powered by IBA's proprietary fuel-burn intelligence integrated with the unparalleled accuracy of Insight’s Flights and Fleets module to illustrate carbon emissions by any combination of time period, airline, lessor, aircraft MSN and model, fleet, future portfolios, OEM, country, airport and route pair. IBA NetZero also builds in SAF modelling to look at the impacts of different SAF feedstocks and percentages across any flight mix.

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IBA's Carbon Index is compiled by Jennifer Stanley , Danny Thurtle and Chris Lomas . Data covers 1-31 November 2022.