ICRA INSIGHT - Monthly Newsletter | January, 2024
Welcome to our latest newsletter, where we delve into the intricate tapestry of economic developments shaping the landscape of FY2024 and beyond. As we reflect on the outcomes of the final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for FY2024, the decision to maintain policy rates and stance unchanged underscores the cautious yet resilient stance adopted amidst a dynamic global environment.
Notably, the divergence in the voting pattern on the policy rate signals nuanced perspectives within the MPC, highlighting the deliberative nature of monetary policy decisions in response to evolving economic conditions. Despite this divergence, the alignment of the voting pattern on policy rates with the stance reflects a cohesive approach towards achieving macroeconomic stability.
Looking ahead, the MPC's optimistic outlook for FY2025 GDP growth, surpassing 7%, underscores confidence in the resilience of the Indian economy, supported by upward revisions in quarterly GDP growth projections. These projections, reflecting sharp upward revisions, instill optimism and underscore the proactive measures undertaken to stimulate economic growth.
In the real estate sector, ICRA's insights shed light on the significant strides made, particularly in the National Capital Region (NCR), where the compression of Years to Sell (YTS) and reduction in unsold inventory signify a resurgence in market activity. The stability projected by ICRA in its outlook for the residential real estate sector reflects a balanced trajectory amidst evolving market dynamics.
Moreover, ICRA's upward revision of bank credit growth projections for FY2024 underscores the financial sector's pivotal role in driving economic expansion. However, challenges in deposit mobilization could temper credit expansion in FY2025, necessitating a prudent approach to sustain growth momentum.
The pharmaceutical industry emerges as a beacon of growth, with ICRA forecasting robust revenue expansion and improved operational metrics supported by strategic initiatives and market dynamics. Despite regulatory challenges, Indian pharmaceutical companies exhibit resilience and adaptability, positioning them favorably in domestic and international markets.
As we navigate through these economic currents, our newsletter serves as a compass, offering insightful analysis, forecasts, and updates to guide your strategic decisions. We invite you to explore the pages ahead, where we unravel the complexities of the economy and offer perspectives to navigate the evolving landscape.
In conclusion, we extend our gratitude for your continued support and engagement. We remain committed to providing timely and relevant insights to empower your endeavors in an ever-changing economic milieu.
Economy
Optimistic on growth, cautious on new inflation risks
The final meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) for FY2024 saw both the policy rates and the stance being left unchanged, as was widely expected. However, the voting pattern on the policy rate was not unanimous, unlike the previous policy, with one MPC member voting for a 25 bps rate cut. The voting pattern on policy rates is now aligned with that on the stance, at 5:1.
Pharmaceutical Sector
Strong performance in the US market to support growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry in FY2024; regulatory risk persists
ICRA expects the revenues of a sample set of 25 Indian pharmaceutical companies (which account for ~60% of the overall revenues of the Indian pharmaceutical industry) to expand by 9-11% in FY2024, post a YoY growth of 10% in FY2023. The OPM for the sample set is projected to improve to 22-23% in FY2024, against 20.7% in FY2023, supported by new product launches backed by increased focus on complex generics/specialty molecules, easing of pricing pressure, and some benefits of volume expansion and better pricing due to product shortages in the US market. ICRA expects the overall credit profile of the Indian pharmaceutical companies to remain healthy, supported by their stable earnings profile, comfortable leverage and coverage metrics, and strong liquidity position, in spite of the credit risk arising from any adverse regulatory actions.
Financial Market Sector
Bank credit to expand by robust ~15% in FY2024, ~12% in FY2025
ICRA has revised upwards its projection of bank credit growth in FY2024 to 14.9-15.3% (incremental Rs. 20.4-20.9 trillion) from its earlier estimate of 12.8-13.0%. in FY2024 (incremental Rs. 17.5-17.8 trillion). This will be the highest ever incremental bank credit growth and would surpass the previous high of Rs.18.2 trillion (YoY growth of 15.4%) in FY2023. Further, ICRA estimates corporate bond issuances to reach Rs. 9.6-9.9 trillion in FY2024, crossing the record level of Rs. 8.7 trillion seen during FY2023.
Real Estate Sector
Years-to-sell in NCR to remain comfortable at below 1x as of March 2024 supported by healthy sales momentum and decadal low inventory
Ratings agency ICRA highlighted that the years to sell (YTS) in NCR compressed to 0.7 years as of September 2023 from 2.6 years in September 2020, driven by healthy sales velocity, calibrated launches and decadal low inventory. ICRA expects the YTS in NCR to remain comfortable below 1 year as of March 2024 (1.0 year as of March 2023). Overall, ICRA’s outlook on the residential real estate sector is Stable.
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Indian Quick-Service Restaurant Industry
Subdued demand conditions and inflationary cost regime to challenge the QSR sector in the near term
Structured Finance Sector
Securitisation volumes witness modest decline in Q3 FY2024; 9M volumes trend higher on back of a strong H1
Real Estate Sector
REIT-ready office provides an investment opportunity of Rs. 5.8–6.2 lakh crore across top seven cities
NDTV, 24th January, Oil Companies See Higher Margins, Stable Crude To Keep Fuel Rates Low
The Financial Express, 18th January, Import reliance for copper likely to ease
Business Standard, 25th January, ICRA revises credit growth estimates to 14.9-15.3% in FY24
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