India Signs a Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) with the United States.

Implications for Pakistan and the Emerging Geopolitical Bloc.

In August 2024, India signed a Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) with the United States, marking a significant milestone in U.S.-India defense cooperation. This agreement allows both countries to request priority delivery of defense equipment and materials, particularly during times of supply chain disruptions. While this development has wide-ranging implications for India’s strategic position, it also poses significant challenges and opportunities for Pakistan, as well as the broader geopolitical landscapeImplications for Pakistan and the Emerging Geopolitical Bloc.

In August 2024, India signed a Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) with the United States, marking a significant milestone in U.S.-India defense cooperation. This agreement allows both countries to request priority delivery of defense equipment and materials, particularly during times of supply chain disruptions. While this development has wide-ranging implications for India’s strategic position, it also poses significant challenges and opportunities for Pakistan, as well as the broader geopolitical landscape.

Close examination of the impact of the U.S.-India SOSA on Pakistan, particularly in the context of emerging alliances, we can explore how the arrangement may deepen the growing Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc, potentially paving the way for a new Cold War-style rivalry, termed as Cold War 2.0

SOSA’s Strategic Implications for Pakistan

India’s partnership with the United States has grown steadily since it was designated a "Major Defense Partner" in 2016, with SOSA further strengthening the defense and technological cooperation between the two countries. This deepening relationship creates concerns for Pakistan, as it recalibrates its defense strategies in light of India’s expanding military capabilities.

For Pakistan, the U.S.-India SOSA could exacerbate regional military imbalances. India's access to priority U.S. defense supplies means a potentially more rapid response to supply chain disruptions and quicker procurement of advanced military technology. This not only impacts conventional military parity but also raises questions about the technological gap that could emerge between the two South Asian neighbors.

Pakistan, traditionally a key U.S. ally in the region, is now likely to view this development as a signal of Washington’s shifting focus toward India as a counterweight to China. As a result, Pakistan may turn to alternative defense alliances and bolster its partnerships with China, Russia, and Turkey in a bid to maintain strategic stability in the region.

The Emerging Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran Bloc

The U.S.-India SOSA comes at a time when global alliances are shifting, with the emergence of an alternative geopolitical bloc involving Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. This bloc represents a convergence of interests driven by geopolitical pressures, economic necessity, and mutual concerns over U.S. influence in the region.

The signing of SOSA is likely to accelerate the deepening of this bloc, as countries like Pakistan, already wary of India’s growing military capabilities, seek stronger defense ties with other major powers. Each member of this emerging alliance brings unique strengths that could create a formidable counterbalance to U.S.-India cooperation:

1. China: As Pakistan’s closest strategic partner, China plays a central role in its defense strategy. The U.S.-India SOSA, which is part of Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, could push Beijing and Islamabad closer together, with China likely to increase its military and economic support to Pakistan. Enhanced collaboration in defense technologies, including artificial intelligence and cyber warfare, would be a natural progression.
2. Russia: Traditionally a major arms supplier to India, Russia’s relationship with New Delhi has been strained by India’s growing closeness to the U.S. The U.S.-India SOSA may further alienate Russia from India, creating an opportunity for Moscow to deepen its defense ties with Pakistan. Given that Russia is also increasingly aligned with China, it is feasible that we could see greater trilateral cooperation among Russia, China, and Pakistan in both military and strategic arenas, especially in the cyber space.
3. Turkey: Turkey’s defense industry is on the rise, and Ankara has already been collaborating with Pakistan on military technologies, including drones and other advanced systems. The U.S.-India SOSA could incentivize Turkey to deepen its ties with Pakistan and other members of this emerging bloc, as it seeks to diversify its defense partnerships and assert greater influence in regional and global affairs.
4. Iran: Despite being subject to Western sanctions, Iran’s geopolitical importance is undeniable, especially as a counterweight to U.S. influence in the Middle East and South Asia. Iran’s inclusion in this emerging bloc further strengthens the collective capabilities of these countries. Given Iran’s strategic location and its historical rivalry with the U.S., deeper collaboration with Russia, China, and Pakistan in military and energy sectors seems inevitable.

Towards Cold War 2.0?

The U.S.-India SOSA and the emergence of a Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc signal the potential onset of a new Cold War, with strategic alignments and military buildups on both sides. Several factors point toward the development of a bipolar world order reminiscent of the original Cold War:

1. Geopolitical Rivalry: The U.S. sees India as a key player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at countering China’s growing influence in Asia and beyond. Conversely, China views the U.S.-India alliance as a direct threat to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its broader geopolitical ambitions. This rivalry is increasingly drawing in other regional powers, with Pakistan and Iran firmly in China’s camp and India aligning more closely with the U.S.
2. Defense and Military Alliances: With SOSA in place, India is now better positioned to receive U.S. defense equipment, strengthening its military capabilities. This is likely to drive the Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc to enhance their defense cooperation further, potentially leading to joint military exercises, technology sharing, and the development of new defense systems aimed at countering the U.S.-India axis.
3. Economic and Technological Decoupling: The Cold War was characterized by economic and technological competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Similarly, today we are witnessing a decoupling of global supply chains, particularly in critical technologies such as 5G, semiconductors, and defense systems. As India becomes more integrated into U.S.-led technological and defense ecosystems, the alternative bloc may focus on building self-reliance in these areas, with China leading the way.
4. Diplomatic Polarization: Just as the Cold War led to the formation of rival blocs, we are now seeing a similar diplomatic polarization. Countries are being forced to choose sides, with many Asian, Middle Eastern, and African nations aligning themselves with either the U.S.-India axis or the Russia-China -Turkey bloc. This polarization is likely to intensify as both sides compete for influence in critical regions such as Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

Ramifications for Pakistan

In this evolving global landscape, Pakistan stands to both gain and lose from these shifting alliances. On the one hand, deepening ties with China and Russia could provide Pakistan with advanced military technologies, economic investment, and a stronger geopolitical position. Pakistan’s inclusion in this bloc may also grant it greater leverage in its ongoing rivalry with India, particularly if it can secure critical defense supplies from Russia and China.

On the other hand, Pakistan must be cautious not to become overly dependent on this emerging bloc, as it risks alienating the United States and the West. Maintaining a balanced foreign policy will be essential, as Pakistan navigates its role in this potential new Cold War. Diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and efforts to stabilize relations with India, where possible, will also be important for Pakistan’s long-term strategic interests.

The U.S.-India SOSA is a defining moment in the region's shifting geopolitical landscape, with profound implications for Pakistan. As India solidifies its defense ties with the United States, Pakistan is likely to strengthen its alliances with China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The growing polarization of global powers, coupled with increasing military cooperation on both sides, suggests that we may be on the verge of a Cold War 2.0, with South Asia at its core.

In this complex environment, Pakistan must craft a careful and dynamic strategy, leveraging its alliances while maintaining diplomatic flexibility to protect its national interests in an increasingly divided world.

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) and Their Strategic Importance

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) are bilateral agreements that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has established with several allied nations to ensure the uninterrupted supply of defense-related goods and services. These arrangements are crucial in maintaining defense readiness, particularly during times of heightened geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, or armed conflict. The DoD uses SOSA to prioritize defense contracts with companies from signatory nations, allowing them to meet critical national security requirements effectively.

Key Features of SOSA

1. Mutual Priority Delivery: Under a SOSA, the DoD can request priority delivery for defense contracts, subcontracts, or orders with companies in partner nations. Conversely, these nations can also request priority delivery for their defense contracts with U.S. firms. This reciprocity ensures that defense materials flow seamlessly across borders during emergencies, peacetime, or armed conflicts.
2. Bilateral Nature: SOSAs are conducted under the framework of broader Declarations of Principles for Enhanced Cooperation in Defense Equipment and Industry between the U.S. and its allies. These declarations emphasize the mutual interdependence of defense supply chains and encourage partner nations to develop solutions that ensure continuous access to defense supplies.
3. Interoperability and Cooperation: One of the major goals of SOSA is to promote interoperability between defense forces of signatory nations. The agreements also encourage these countries to purchase defense goods from one another, strengthening defense partnerships while fostering technological and industrial collaboration.
4. Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS): The U.S. manages priority deliveries under the Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS). This system ensures that vital defense orders are given precedence, especially in times of crisis, ensuring a reliable and rapid response to national defense needs.

Code of Conduct and Foreign Participation

To enhance the effectiveness of SOSA, participating nations either establish or are in the process of instituting government-industry codes of conduct. These codes ensure that firms make every reasonable effort to provide priority support to defense contracts. Though participation in these codes is voluntary, many companies choose to participate as a testament to their reliability and commitment to defense partnerships.

The U.S. encourages program managers, contractors, and subcontractors to use SOSA and the associated foreign codes of conduct to ensure timely deliveries. In cases where companies from a participating nation are not signed up under the code of conduct, the DoD can request the foreign Ministry of Defense to encourage the company to join the code or otherwise prioritize defense orders.

Global SOSA Partnerships

As of now, the U.S. has SOSA agreements with numerous countries, spanning North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Each country brings its defense industry capabilities to the table, contributing to a global defense ecosystem that ensures resilience and interoperability. Key partners include:

• Australia: U.S.-Australia SOSA
• Canada: While not a SOSA partner, the U.S. has a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Canada’s Public Works and Government Services.
• Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom: These countries have SOSAs with the U.S. and have also implemented domestic codes of conduct for their defense industries.
• India, Israel, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Denmark, and other European nations: These countries have established SOSA arrangements, further expanding the U.S.'s global defense supply network.

Importance of SOSA in Geopolitical Context

SOSA agreements play a crucial role in today’s volatile geopolitical environment, where global supply chains are frequently disrupted by political conflicts, natural disasters, and economic sanctions. By ensuring mutual priority access to defense supplies, SOSA helps the U.S. and its allies maintain military readiness and industrial resilience.

These agreements are especially relevant as geopolitical alliances shift and new blocs emerge, such as the increasing collaboration among Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. SOSA helps solidify the U.S.'s defense partnerships with key allies like India, the U.K., and Japan, enabling these countries to respond swiftly to emerging threats and maintain a robust defense posture in the face of evolving security challenges.

SOSAs as Building Blocks for Regional and Global Alliances

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) not only serve as essential bilateral defense agreements but also act as foundational elements and building blocks for larger regional and global security frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other emerging alliances. In an increasingly multipolar world where defense cooperation and interoperability are vital, SOSAs enhance trust and ensure rapid response capabilities among allied nations, laying the groundwork for multilateral defense collaborations.

Enhancing Regional Defense Cooperation

1. QUAD and Indo-Pacific Security: The QUAD, comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, has gained prominence as a security framework aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The SOSAs between the U.S. and QUAD members—India, Japan, and Australia—serve as the backbone for ensuring mutual supply and prioritization of defense resources. These arrangements enable these countries to align their defense supply chains, ensuring seamless cooperation during crises or military engagements.
2. Strengthening AUKUS: In a similar vein, the U.S.-U.K.-Australia trilateral security partnership (AUKUS), aimed at bolstering defense cooperation in the Pacific, benefits from SOSAs. These arrangements reinforce the supply chains that are necessary for key military initiatives, such as Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. The assured supply of defense technologies and materials between the U.S. and its AUKUS partners ensures the success of such strategic programs.
3. Expanding Influence in ASEAN and Beyond: While the QUAD and AUKUS represent formal security groupings, the broader influence of SOSAs can extend to regional organizations like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As tensions escalate in the South China Sea and other contested regions, SOSAs can be used to build trust and deepen defense cooperation with ASEAN countries that are strategically important for Indo-Pacific security. Countries like Singapore and the Philippines, which maintain strong defense ties with the U.S., could eventually engage in SOSA-like frameworks, expanding the U.S. defense network in the region.

Global Defense Alliances

1. NATO and European Defense Collaboration: The U.S. has long-standing SOSA agreements with several NATO members, including the U.K., Italy, and Norway, as well as other European countries like Sweden and Finland. These agreements enable the smooth flow of defense goods across borders, even in times of conflict or heightened military readiness. With the backdrop of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, SOSAs are vital in ensuring that NATO and European allies have a reliable supply chain for defense equipment, making it easier for them to coordinate their military responses and meet joint defense commitments.
2. Countering the Russia-China Bloc: SOSAs also play a strategic role in countering emerging alliances between Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. As this bloc strengthens its military cooperation, particularly through arms deals and joint military exercises, SOSAs provide the U.S. and its allies with a mechanism to stay ahead. By securing the mutual supply of advanced defense technologies, the U.S. and its SOSA partners ensure they have the industrial base and capabilities needed to counterbalance these rival powers. This deepening cooperation through SOSAs signals to adversaries that the U.S. and its allies are prepared to sustain long-term defense readiness.
3. The Framework for Cold War 2.0: As the global geopolitical landscape evolves, with clear lines being drawn between U.S.-led alliances and rival blocs led by China and Russia, SOSAs can be seen as a framework for what some analysts are calling “Cold War 2.0.” In this new era of great power competition, the ability to secure and prioritize defense supplies becomes even more critical. SOSAs provide the logistical backbone for global alliances to maintain military superiority, enhance defense cooperation, and develop joint capabilities across different theaters of conflict.

In essence, SOSAs are more than just bilateral defense agreements; they are building blocks for larger regional and global alliances. By ensuring mutual supply and prioritization of defense goods, SOSAs help countries like the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia align their defense strategies, making frameworks like the QUAD and AUKUS more effective.

Additionally, in the broader geopolitical context, SOSAs serve as a counterbalance to rival military blocs, enabling the U.S. and its allies to maintain a robust and resilient defense posture in a rapidly changing world.SOSA represents a vital component of the U.S.'s broader defense strategy, providing security of supply through international collaboration, fostering defense industry interoperability, and ensuring that national security requirements are met during critical times.

About Amir Jahangir

Amir Jahangir, a global competitiveness, risk, and development expert, leads Mishal Pakistan, the country partner institute of the New Economy and Societies Platform at the World Economic Forum. As a leading narratologist and an expert on Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy for technology, and governance, he is an alumnus of Harvard Law School’s Program on Negotiation (PON), affiliated with Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Tufts University since 2008. Jahangir is also an alumnus of the National Defence University Islamabad, Islamabad, and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government on National and International Security, reachable at aj@mishal.com.pk and @amirjahangir on X/Twitter.

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Close examination of the impact of the U.S.-India SOSA on Pakistan, particularly in the context of emerging alliances, we can explore how the arrangement may deepen the growing Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc, potentially paving the way for a new Cold War-style rivalry, termed as Cold War 2.0

SOSA’s Strategic Implications for Pakistan

India’s partnership with the United States has grown steadily since it was designated a "Major Defense Partner" in 2016, with SOSA further strengthening the defense and technological cooperation between the two countries. This deepening relationship creates concerns for Pakistan, as it recalibrates its defense strategies in light of India’s expanding military capabilities.

For Pakistan, the U.S.-India SOSA could exacerbate regional military imbalances. India's access to priority U.S. defense supplies means a potentially more rapid response to supply chain disruptions and quicker procurement of advanced military technology. This not only impacts conventional military parity but also raises questions about the technological gap that could emerge between the two South Asian neighbors.

Pakistan, traditionally a key U.S. ally in the region, is now likely to view this development as a signal of Washington’s shifting focus toward India as a counterweight to China. As a result, Pakistan may turn to alternative defense alliances and bolster its partnerships with China, Russia, and Turkey in a bid to maintain strategic stability in the region.

The Emerging Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran Bloc

The U.S.-India SOSA comes at a time when global alliances are shifting, with the emergence of an alternative geopolitical bloc involving Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. This bloc represents a convergence of interests driven by geopolitical pressures, economic necessity, and mutual concerns over U.S. influence in the region.

The signing of SOSA is likely to accelerate the deepening of this bloc, as countries like Pakistan, already wary of India’s growing military capabilities, seek stronger defense ties with other major powers. Each member of this emerging alliance brings unique strengths that could create a formidable counterbalance to U.S.-India cooperation:

1. China: As Pakistan’s closest strategic partner, China plays a central role in its defense strategy. The U.S.-India SOSA, which is part of Washington’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, could push Beijing and Islamabad closer together, with China likely to increase its military and economic support to Pakistan. Enhanced collaboration in defense technologies, including artificial intelligence and cyber warfare, would be a natural progression.
2. Russia: Traditionally a major arms supplier to India, Russia’s relationship with New Delhi has been strained by India’s growing closeness to the U.S. The U.S.-India SOSA may further alienate Russia from India, creating an opportunity for Moscow to deepen its defense ties with Pakistan. Given that Russia is also increasingly aligned with China, it is feasible that we could see greater trilateral cooperation among Russia, China, and Pakistan in both military and strategic arenas, especially in the cyber space.
3. Turkey: Turkey’s defense industry is on the rise, and Ankara has already been collaborating with Pakistan on military technologies, including drones and other advanced systems. The U.S.-India SOSA could incentivize Turkey to deepen its ties with Pakistan and other members of this emerging bloc, as it seeks to diversify its defense partnerships and assert greater influence in regional and global affairs.
4. Iran: Despite being subject to Western sanctions, Iran’s geopolitical importance is undeniable, especially as a counterweight to U.S. influence in the Middle East and South Asia. Iran’s inclusion in this emerging bloc further strengthens the collective capabilities of these countries. Given Iran’s strategic location and its historical rivalry with the U.S., deeper collaboration with Russia, China, and Pakistan in military and energy sectors seems inevitable.

Towards Cold War 2.0?

The U.S.-India SOSA and the emergence of a Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc signal the potential onset of a new Cold War, with strategic alignments and military buildups on both sides. Several factors point toward the development of a bipolar world order reminiscent of the original Cold War:

1. Geopolitical Rivalry: The U.S. sees India as a key player in its Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at countering China’s growing influence in Asia and beyond. Conversely, China views the U.S.-India alliance as a direct threat to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its broader geopolitical ambitions. This rivalry is increasingly drawing in other regional powers, with Pakistan and Iran firmly in China’s camp and India aligning more closely with the U.S.
2. Defense and Military Alliances: With SOSA in place, India is now better positioned to receive U.S. defense equipment, strengthening its military capabilities. This is likely to drive the Russia-China-Pakistan-Turkey-Iran bloc to enhance their defense cooperation further, potentially leading to joint military exercises, technology sharing, and the development of new defense systems aimed at countering the U.S.-India axis.
3. Economic and Technological Decoupling: The Cold War was characterized by economic and technological competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Similarly, today we are witnessing a decoupling of global supply chains, particularly in critical technologies such as 5G, semiconductors, and defense systems. As India becomes more integrated into U.S.-led technological and defense ecosystems, the alternative bloc may focus on building self-reliance in these areas, with China leading the way.
4. Diplomatic Polarization: Just as the Cold War led to the formation of rival blocs, we are now seeing a similar diplomatic polarization. Countries are being forced to choose sides, with many Asian, Middle Eastern, and African nations aligning themselves with either the U.S.-India axis or the Russia-China -Turkey bloc. This polarization is likely to intensify as both sides compete for influence in critical regions such as Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.

Ramifications for Pakistan

In this evolving global landscape, Pakistan stands to both gain and lose from these shifting alliances. On the one hand, deepening ties with China and Russia could provide Pakistan with advanced military technologies, economic investment, and a stronger geopolitical position. Pakistan’s inclusion in this bloc may also grant it greater leverage in its ongoing rivalry with India, particularly if it can secure critical defense supplies from Russia and China.

On the other hand, Pakistan must be cautious not to become overly dependent on this emerging bloc, as it risks alienating the United States and the West. Maintaining a balanced foreign policy will be essential, as Pakistan navigates its role in this potential new Cold War. Diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and efforts to stabilize relations with India, where possible, will also be important for Pakistan’s long-term strategic interests.

The U.S.-India SOSA is a defining moment in the region's shifting geopolitical landscape, with profound implications for Pakistan. As India solidifies its defense ties with the United States, Pakistan is likely to strengthen its alliances with China, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. The growing polarization of global powers, coupled with increasing military cooperation on both sides, suggests that we may be on the verge of a Cold War 2.0, with South Asia at its core.

In this complex environment, Pakistan must craft a careful and dynamic strategy, leveraging its alliances while maintaining diplomatic flexibility to protect its national interests in an increasingly divided world.

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) and Their Strategic Importance

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) are bilateral agreements that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has established with several allied nations to ensure the uninterrupted supply of defense-related goods and services. These arrangements are crucial in maintaining defense readiness, particularly during times of heightened geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, or armed conflict. The DoD uses SOSA to prioritize defense contracts with companies from signatory nations, allowing them to meet critical national security requirements effectively.

Key Features of SOSA

1. Mutual Priority Delivery: Under a SOSA, the DoD can request priority delivery for defense contracts, subcontracts, or orders with companies in partner nations. Conversely, these nations can also request priority delivery for their defense contracts with U.S. firms. This reciprocity ensures that defense materials flow seamlessly across borders during emergencies, peacetime, or armed conflicts.
2. Bilateral Nature: SOSAs are conducted under the framework of broader Declarations of Principles for Enhanced Cooperation in Defense Equipment and Industry between the U.S. and its allies. These declarations emphasize the mutual interdependence of defense supply chains and encourage partner nations to develop solutions that ensure continuous access to defense supplies.
3. Interoperability and Cooperation: One of the major goals of SOSA is to promote interoperability between defense forces of signatory nations. The agreements also encourage these countries to purchase defense goods from one another, strengthening defense partnerships while fostering technological and industrial collaboration.
4. Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS): The U.S. manages priority deliveries under the Defense Priorities and Allocations System (DPAS). This system ensures that vital defense orders are given precedence, especially in times of crisis, ensuring a reliable and rapid response to national defense needs.

Code of Conduct and Foreign Participation

To enhance the effectiveness of SOSA, participating nations either establish or are in the process of instituting government-industry codes of conduct. These codes ensure that firms make every reasonable effort to provide priority support to defense contracts. Though participation in these codes is voluntary, many companies choose to participate as a testament to their reliability and commitment to defense partnerships.

The U.S. encourages program managers, contractors, and subcontractors to use SOSA and the associated foreign codes of conduct to ensure timely deliveries. In cases where companies from a participating nation are not signed up under the code of conduct, the DoD can request the foreign Ministry of Defense to encourage the company to join the code or otherwise prioritize defense orders.

Global SOSA Partnerships

As of now, the U.S. has SOSA agreements with numerous countries, spanning North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Each country brings its defense industry capabilities to the table, contributing to a global defense ecosystem that ensures resilience and interoperability. Key partners include:

• Australia: U.S.-Australia SOSA
• Canada: While not a SOSA partner, the U.S. has a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Canada’s Public Works and Government Services.
• Finland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom: These countries have SOSAs with the U.S. and have also implemented domestic codes of conduct for their defense industries.
• India, Israel, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Denmark, and other European nations: These countries have established SOSA arrangements, further expanding the U.S.'s global defense supply network.

Importance of SOSA in Geopolitical Context

SOSA agreements play a crucial role in today’s volatile geopolitical environment, where global supply chains are frequently disrupted by political conflicts, natural disasters, and economic sanctions. By ensuring mutual priority access to defense supplies, SOSA helps the U.S. and its allies maintain military readiness and industrial resilience.

These agreements are especially relevant as geopolitical alliances shift and new blocs emerge, such as the increasing collaboration among Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. SOSA helps solidify the U.S.'s defense partnerships with key allies like India, the U.K., and Japan, enabling these countries to respond swiftly to emerging threats and maintain a robust defense posture in the face of evolving security challenges.

SOSAs as Building Blocks for Regional and Global Alliances

Security of Supply Arrangements (SOSA) not only serve as essential bilateral defense agreements but also act as foundational elements and building blocks for larger regional and global security frameworks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) and other emerging alliances. In an increasingly multipolar world where defense cooperation and interoperability are vital, SOSAs enhance trust and ensure rapid response capabilities among allied nations, laying the groundwork for multilateral defense collaborations.

Enhancing Regional Defense Cooperation

1. QUAD and Indo-Pacific Security: The QUAD, comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, has gained prominence as a security framework aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The SOSAs between the U.S. and QUAD members—India, Japan, and Australia—serve as the backbone for ensuring mutual supply and prioritization of defense resources. These arrangements enable these countries to align their defense supply chains, ensuring seamless cooperation during crises or military engagements.
2. Strengthening AUKUS: In a similar vein, the U.S.-U.K.-Australia trilateral security partnership (AUKUS), aimed at bolstering defense cooperation in the Pacific, benefits from SOSAs. These arrangements reinforce the supply chains that are necessary for key military initiatives, such as Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. The assured supply of defense technologies and materials between the U.S. and its AUKUS partners ensures the success of such strategic programs.
3. Expanding Influence in ASEAN and Beyond: While the QUAD and AUKUS represent formal security groupings, the broader influence of SOSAs can extend to regional organizations like the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As tensions escalate in the South China Sea and other contested regions, SOSAs can be used to build trust and deepen defense cooperation with ASEAN countries that are strategically important for Indo-Pacific security. Countries like Singapore and the Philippines, which maintain strong defense ties with the U.S., could eventually engage in SOSA-like frameworks, expanding the U.S. defense network in the region.

Global Defense Alliances

1. NATO and European Defense Collaboration: The U.S. has long-standing SOSA agreements with several NATO members, including the U.K., Italy, and Norway, as well as other European countries like Sweden and Finland. These agreements enable the smooth flow of defense goods across borders, even in times of conflict or heightened military readiness. With the backdrop of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, SOSAs are vital in ensuring that NATO and European allies have a reliable supply chain for defense equipment, making it easier for them to coordinate their military responses and meet joint defense commitments.
2. Countering the Russia-China Bloc: SOSAs also play a strategic role in countering emerging alliances between Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran. As this bloc strengthens its military cooperation, particularly through arms deals and joint military exercises, SOSAs provide the U.S. and its allies with a mechanism to stay ahead. By securing the mutual supply of advanced defense technologies, the U.S. and its SOSA partners ensure they have the industrial base and capabilities needed to counterbalance these rival powers. This deepening cooperation through SOSAs signals to adversaries that the U.S. and its allies are prepared to sustain long-term defense readiness.
3. The Framework for Cold War 2.0: As the global geopolitical landscape evolves, with clear lines being drawn between U.S.-led alliances and rival blocs led by China and Russia, SOSAs can be seen as a framework for what some analysts are calling “Cold War 2.0.” In this new era of great power competition, the ability to secure and prioritize defense supplies becomes even more critical. SOSAs provide the logistical backbone for global alliances to maintain military superiority, enhance defense cooperation, and develop joint capabilities across different theaters of conflict.

In essence, SOSAs are more than just bilateral defense agreements; they are building blocks for larger regional and global alliances. By ensuring mutual supply and prioritization of defense goods, SOSAs help countries like the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia align their defense strategies, making frameworks like the QUAD and AUKUS more effective.

Additionally, in the broader geopolitical context, SOSAs serve as a counterbalance to rival military blocs, enabling the U.S. and its allies to maintain a robust and resilient defense posture in a rapidly changing world.SOSA represents a vital component of the U.S.'s broader defense strategy, providing security of supply through international collaboration, fostering defense industry interoperability, and ensuring that national security requirements are met during critical times.

About Amir Jahangir

Amir Jahangir, a global competitiveness, risk, and development expert, leads Mishal Pakistan, the country partner institute of the New Economy and Societies Platform at the World Economic Forum. As a leading narratologist and an expert on Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy for technology, and governance, he is an alumnus of Harvard Law School’s Program on Negotiation (PON), affiliated with Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Tufts University since 2008. Jahangir is also an alumnus of the National Defence University Islamabad, Islamabad, and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government on National and International Security, reachable at aj@mishal.com.pk and @amirjahangir on X/Twitter.