The Infinite Monkey theorem: impact on everyday business

Few days ago, I talked to a friend who works in an AI development team for the European Investment Bank projects. At one point in the conversation, he said, "You know that a lot of times it happens that after finishing a team meeting, someone writes an email to everyone asking: what did we decide in the end?"

From there, I took the cue to write (and it's been a while since I did) and talk about the infinite monkey theory.

This theory is one of my favorites. It represents one of those paradoxes that tell the truth of things or how complexity and probability can lead to an outcome. Here, randomness is one of the keywords in this article.

The theory of infinite monkeys began as a fascinating mathematical theory. As I always do, I looked at it from a different angle to learn from it and found that the theory has a fascinating application in business and innovation processes. In particular, it lays bare what is a highly damaging behavior, both for established businesses and startups, but at the same time, very widespread. Recognizing it allows us to avoid it.

Let's start by discovering the theory and then understand what it can teach us.

The theory 

The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey randomly tapping keys on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost certainly be able to type any text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare. The monkey would almost certainly type any possible finite text an infinite number of times. The theorem can be generalized to state that any sequence of events with a non-zero probability will almost certainly occur eventually, given enough time. 

Business and startup applications of the theory

What does this theory have to do with my friend the EIB and, more generally, with the performance of a business or startup?

When we have to develop a business or a project, we behave just like the monkey. But we don't have infinite time. That happens mainly in the innovation and startup sector, where ideas are turned into companies even before we understand how they will generate value.

I have been a trainer for European institutions' tech-transfer programs for several years and even longer, working alongside large and small companies. An attitude that I have always seen widespread (even in my organization!) is precisely that of organizing work, both at the micro and macro level, with a very high degree of randomness, i.e., without a precise definition of the objectives to be achieved, the tools and, above all, the map to be followed.

Strategies, planning, and decisions

Unlike our little monkey, the difficulty coefficient of what an organization has to produce is usually lower than in writing the MacBeth. But this is precisely where it becomes relevant. We must realize that not having a clear idea of the goals does not allow us to create a clear roadmap. And not having a clear roadmap does not allow us to make decisions. And without decisions, we go in circles. Of course, sometimes it may happen that we accidentally take the right path. But it will be by chance, and the time available is not infinite. It's especially true for startups, which become lazy because of successful investment rounds (I think I will write an article on this topic as well), but also for established businesses, for which the timeframe for achieving financial results has shortened dramatically due to factors such as rising commodity costs and geopolitical changes.

The "monkey" attitude finds fertile ground, especially at the micro-decisional and micro-organizational levels, but its effects inevitably go back up and negatively affect overall performance.

Honestly, has this ever happened to you?

Let's take a random scenario. Two-hour meeting, ending up talking about things far removed from the topic defined in the beginning and without making a clear and relevant decision.

When I work as a trainer or mentor (although I don't like that last word), the first advice I give is always "stop and observe". Observe what is happening around you and what is happening in your organization. Superficial attitudes and teachings have led us to think that mission (what I do every day) and vision (how I see the future) are separate and different things. As a result, we do, do and do, forgetting where we want to take our organization or business. Believe it or not, if we were to translate this way of working into a mathematical formula, it would turn out that we rely on randomness and probability to achieve our major goals, which are called big-picture goals. The question is, of course, rhetorical because I already know you have experienced this kind of situation more than once. Honestly, it has happened to me very often.

How, then, to avoid this danger?

Simple, don't act like monkeys with a typewriter.

They have infinite time. We don't.

#innovation #startup #business