The Insight: on politics and economics

We stay impartial when it comes to politics. But that doesn’t mean we’re not avid followers of what’s happening on the political stage. After all, governments have a huge role to play in driving business growth and addressing societal issues.  

So, with around half the world potentially heading to the polls this year, we’re taking a look at what geopolitics means for business leaders. And, as you can’t talk politics without economics, we’ll be sharing our latest forecast for the UK economy too. We’ll also share how we got on with our Budget predictions.  

It's not just economics and geopolitics this month. We’ve got a fascinating interview with the Chair of Ford Britain too.  

You should never mix politics and business. Should you?

Let’s start with the politics. In our 2023 CEO Outlook survey, they said ‘geopolitics and political uncertainty’ was the biggest threat to growth over the next three years. And the situation hasn’t improved since then, with major conflicts continuing to make the news.

On our latest ‘Insights for leaders’ event, we discussed how business leaders can traverse an uncertain geopolitical and economic landscape. We were joined by Ben Fletcher , Chief Finance & Transformation Officer at The Very Group and Dr. Lindsay Shorr Newman , Head of Global Macro-Geopolitics, at the Eurasia Group.

We didn’t just talk risks though. We also looked at the opportunities. No surprises that our audience saw AI and emerging tech as the biggest opportunity for growth, just ahead of sustainable initiatives. 

Watch the ‘Leading through geopolitical and economic uncertainty’ event on demand

Economic outlook: inflation coming down; growth creeping up

Now, on to the economics. There was some good news on that front earlier this month. Figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility suggest the UK is on its way out of a technical recession. Our latest Economic Outlook report forecasts real GDP growth of 0.3% in 2024, rising to 0.9% in 2024. The longer-term outlook is for growth of just 1% this decade. We’re expecting inflation to return to its 2% target in the first half of 2024. And that should put the Bank of England in a position to begin cutting interest rates this summer.

Get our full UK economic forecast

What do electric vehicles and lessons in leadership have in common?

The answer is Lisa Brankin , Chair and Managing Director of Ford Britain. Lisa joined our own Chair Bina Mehta for the latest episode of our Pull up a Chair podcast. She shared some fascinating insights on the future of the automotive industry, the evolving workforce and sustainable growth. For Lisa, driving change is about painting a compelling picture of the future for your people: “Any sustainable growth has got to come off of a good foundation – so as you’re taking people with you, they understand they’ve got a role in the future as well.”

Listen to Pull up a Chair with Lisa Brankin, Chair and Managing Director of Ford Britain

 Spring Budget: our predictions were pretty close

Last month on The Insight we shared our Budget predictions. So, how did we get on? We were on the money that there’d be a headline-grabbing cut to National Insurance. And we also called it correctly that there’d be changes to the child benefit and the VAT registration thresholds. The capital gains tax for residential property was a surprise though. And the non-dom announcement went further than we’d expected.

Our tax experts have set out the implications for businesses, employers and individuals if you want the full detail on what the Budget means for you.

Read our full Spring Budget coverage

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