Institutional Top of Mind #21

This edition of Top of Mind with 10x Research examines Bitcoin's growing political influence and its performance across U.S. presidencies. We take a look at Bitcoin's strong pre-election year trends, the 2024 election's potential impact, and how rising prices are turning skeptics into advocates.

The Politics of Bitcoin

TL;DR

• As Bitcoin's price rises, former skeptics like Michael Saylor and Larry Fink have become strong advocates.
• Bitcoin has thrived under three U.S. Presidents, and the 2025 election has the potential to be pivotal, with candidates now embracing it.
• Historically, Bitcoin has performed well in pre-election years, and 2024 has continued this trend.
• The 2024 election, shaped by key events like Trump's debate and assassination attempt, could significantly impact Bitcoin, but its history suggests it will continue to thrive regardless of the election's outcome.

As Bitcoin's price continues to climb, more skeptics become ardent advocates. One of the most notable conversions is Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, who has become one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin. Others, like BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and former U.S. President Donald Trump, initially questioned Bitcoin's potential but later emerged as vocal supporters. Bitcoin, born out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, has thrived under three U.S. Presidents: Democrat Barack Obama (2009-2017), Republican Donald Trump (2017-2021), and Democrat Joe Biden (2021-present). Its growth has transcended political parties, but the 2025 U.S. Presidential election marks a significant moment, with at least one candidate explicitly positioning themselves as the "Bitcoin President."

Bitcoin in pre-election years (average performance of 2012, 2016, and 2020)

The pre-election years have historically been crucial for Bitcoin. During the last three cycles, Bitcoin returned +155% in 2012, +121% in 2016, and +301% in 2020—averaging a +192% return. These gains often coincide with increased fiscal stimulus and a liquidity surge as the incumbent president seeks to bolster support, mainly when re-election is at stake. In 2024, Bitcoin delivered a +42% return, following the trend of bullish pre-election years. Although this year’s returns are trailing slightly, Bitcoin historically accelerates toward year-end, suggesting that the best may come.

Bitcoin’s trajectory is now closely intertwined with the U.S. election cycle. After the June 29, 2024, Biden-Trump debate, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency surged, particularly after surviving an assassination attempt on July 13, 2024, and selecting J.D. Vance, a Bitcoin advocate, as his running mate. This series of events propelled Bitcoin to $70,000. However, the momentum hit a roadblock when Joe Biden, facing dwindling odds, withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024.

Kamala Harris stepped in as Biden's replacement, yet she has not publicly endorsed Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies. While some polls suggest Harris has a more substantial chance of winning, the impact on Bitcoin will likely be shaped by the September 10, 2024, debate between Harris and Trump. The impact on Bitcoin will likely be shaped by this pivotal moment in U.S. politics.

However, as Bitcoin's history demonstrates, it thrives regardless of which party controls the White House as long as prices keep rising, turning skeptics into believers. The 2017 decision to limit Bitcoin's block size solidified its status as digital gold, and both presidential candidates are likely to continue stimulating the economy, which could bolster Bitcoin's role as a store of value. With the fiscal deficit expected to grow under the next administration, more people may recognize how Bitcoin has evolved from a peer-to-peer payment system into a reliable store of value.

Bitcoin surged in anticipation of the 2016 election when Trump was first elected, but the real breakthrough came in 2017, after he took office, with Bitcoin experiencing a tremendous rally. If Trump wins again, the question remains: can Bitcoin replicate this success under a president who openly supports it? Only time will tell, but Bitcoin could emerge as a winner, no matter who prevails in the November 5, 2024, presidential election.

Bitcoin during Trump’s first year in office in 2017

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Disclaimer

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