Introduction to the 2022 Strategic Intelligence Estimate: A note from our Executive Leadership

This is the first article in ERI's Annual Strategic Intelligence Estimate for 2022. We will release articles starting this week and running through mid-February. You can find out more about our Estimate this year by visiting our website.

Looking Forward after Another Year of Uncertainty

Every September, since we began putting together a Strategic Intelligence Estimate (SIE) ahead of the new year, we have debated internally whether it is worth the effort. And this year was different only in that we had to take a very hard look at what our internal capacity would allow, as we grappled with rapid growth and training a large cadre of new staff. Ultimately, we have always decided there is great value in building this compendium of work for our clients – and for our analysts. It is both a prospective and retrospective piece of work, with much thought given to just how much the echoes of the previous year – and years – will affect the coming months, as well as a chance to question what new challenges and opportunities the world will face. As analysts, this helps us build a strategic mindset about the coming year. And as a business, it helps us plan for what is on the horizon. We hope it serves the same dual purpose for our clients.

This year we look at “The Sputtering Global Recovery” largely from a thematic perspective, rather than zeroing in on specific countries or regions in individual pieces. This allows us to thread together recurrent themes globally – and most importantly – outline their interdependency and integration with other problems – and solutions.

Recognizing the Role of Companies in Change and Uncertainty

The focus of the annual SIE is nearly always about how external global events will impact the company, government or organization it is written for in the coming years. While this is an important point of view, this limited perspective focuses too much on that entity as a passive player in global events, when it is anything but. In fact, our clients, companies and multilateral organizations, have broad influence on global events. Their actions, products, technologies and growth contribute to global challenges, as well as being a major part of solutions to these problems. Consider the race to find a vaccine for COVID-19. This, and the speed at which it was accomplished, was an impossible feat without private sector involvement, offering a shining example of what can be accomplished when interdependent groups – public and private - collaborate. Then, look at the roles traditional and social media have played in fomenting global change, both their positive contributions and downsides. This year, we encouraged our analysts to think about the role of business and business decision-makers in global events. While we have still taken in how the world is changing and how it will affect business, we have also focused on the impact of business on the world around it. At the heart of this is a look at global complexity and the power of global business to affect outcomes, both good and bad, and what is at stake in an era of rapid global change and near constant uncertainty.

Diversity of Thought

This year, we have also integrated several outside voices into the product to diversify the perspectives we offer. Within these pages, you’ll see not only the thoughts of our analysts and leaders, but also those of White House Correspondent and author Paul Brandus, who gives us his perspective on Washington DC’s orientation to the world this year; disinformation expert and technology CEO Doowan Lee, with a look ahead at where disinformation will affect us most; an outlook on cyber-regulation from Foreign Policy contributor Jill Kastner; and thoughts on how different ways of thinking could improve intelligence outcomes from author, analyst and former Deputy Director for Analysis at CIA Carmen Medina and neuroscientist Julia Mossbridge, thoughts on new ways of thinking about intelligence questions. Not all these experts’ assessments and ideas will necessarily line up with our own; however, we believe that the importance of bringing in new perspectives and ideas from a range of backgrounds, generations, nationalities and professions is far more valuable than an assessment that suggests that there is only one way to look at the world.

More Upheaval on the Horizon ...

(Pop over to our website to see the full article and a list of topics we will cover in the coming week...)