Israel: Another MK leaves coalition, opposition gains majority

• Zoabi cites prevailing of rightist policies but her resignation can effectively bring about more rightward-inclined cabinet
• She did not warn in advance coalition leaders, her party members call on her to resign from Knesset
• Government lost majority in early April and was counting on equal support with opposition since
• There are three scenarios ahead, all leading to political deadlock
• Opposition reportedly to kick off a motion to dissolve the government and call a snap election next Wednesday

Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi, a member of the leftist Meretz party, announced today that she resigns from the ruling coalition. Zoabi, a representative of the Arab minority, argued that she has no place in the coalition because the leaders of the coalition preferred to strengthen the right side of the coalition in the past few months, taking "harsh hawkish right-wing steps on key issues related to Arab society". She specifically cited actions related to holy sites, settlements in the West Bank, house demolitions, etc. and added that the events that led to her resignation are the violence on the Temple Mount during recent religious celebrations and the funeral of slain Palestinian journalist Sheerin Abu Akleh. The move comes as a surprise as Zoabi has not informed neither Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz nor PM Naftali Bennett or alternate PM Yair Lapid beforehand. Meretz faction members demanded that Zoabi leaves the Knesset and vacates her seat to another representative from the party.

Government lost majority in early April but fragile deadlock kept it in power

Zoabi's resignation breaks the fragile deadlock in the Israeli parliament, in which both the ruling coalition and the opposition held 60 MKs each. Recall that the government lost its thin majority in early April when coalition whip and rightist Yamina MK Idit Silman resigned. The resignation of Zoabi, however, gives the majority to the opposition, increasing significantly the risk for the government to fall and new elections to be called.

We note that another defection has been highly expected but most were looking at rightist parties, especially Yamina, whose MKs have been courted by the rightist Likud, the largest party in the Knesset. Opposition Likud MKs have been often saying that there are talks with coalition MKs and Yamina leader Naftali Bennet, who serves as the incumbent PM in the government and should be replaced by alternate PM Yair Lapid a year from now, has been taking measures to prevent MKs from his party to resign. In efforts to paralyze the government, rightist Likud has said it would not back any kind of legislation promoted by the government, which in fact put it in an awkward situation as Likud comes to oppose even rightist initiatives that might harm its electoral support, like increasing funds for the army. Also, local media reported that haredi parties have been fearing that the government might lure some low-ranked Likud members to join the coalition and restore the majority.

Political deadlock lying ahead with rightist parties dominating but unable to establish government

Being a mix of parties with completely different ideologies from the far-right to the far-left political spectrum, including an Arab party for the first time ever, the government has been focusing on issues that more or less are supported by all coalition factions and thus it mostly focused on economic issues and abstained from even discussing let alone taking decisions on sensitive issues, mostly referring to the Palestinians. Zoabi did cite a rightward bias of the government for her resignation but her move increases immensely the chances of the government to fall and the establishment of a new cabinet with more rightist views given that the preferences of the electorate in the country are strongly rightist and rightist parties have a strong dominance in the Knesset. Therefore, we think that there are political considerations behind her resignation meaning that she has in some way or another been convinced by the opposition to bolt. Consequently, we do not expect her to resign from the Knesset, which could let in another person to the Knesset, likely supportive of the government, that can restore the balance.

Thus, we think that there are three scenarios from now on, to which we ascribe overall equal probabilities. In our view, all they lead to a political deadlock, which has been in place before the incumbent government took office last year after a series of snap elections within months.

• Incumbent government remains in office and counts on the support for important Knesset votes on some opposition MKs, either from Likud or from the predominantly Arab Joint List. After Silman defected, there have been reports that the government will try to attract Joint List MKs for important votes but some coalition parties have opposed such a scenario.
• Government falls and new cabinet is established within the current Knesset. As we said rightist parties have majority in the Knesset and could easily establish a government but only if Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu resigns. The main obstacle for not forming such a government after the last few elections was the fact that Netanyahu did not want to resign. Likud is the largest Knesset party, double the size of the second on the list (ruling centrist Yes Atid) and could even increase its support in case of new elections, according to most recent polls. However, the bloc led by it, comprising the Haredi parties and the Religious Zionist Party, does not have majority for a government while all other parties do not want to work with Netanyahu. Apart from the Likud-led bloc, the opposition comprises the Joint List, which neither wants nor will be invited for participation in a new government. The only chance for Likud could be the other Arab party Ra'am from the ruling coalition, with which Likud reportedly held coalition talks before but some Likud-led bloc MKs have staunchly opposed to cooperate with Ra'am.
• New snap elections to be called. Latest polls show no change from current situation in which rightist parties dominate but cannot form a government meaning a political deadlock. Local media reported quoting Knesset sources that the opposition was planning to kick off a motion to dissolve the government and call a snap election next Wednesday.