Israel’s Iranian Onion Tactics. The Bulls Should Wake Up.

The long-expected military strike by Israel’s air force on Iran is very successful.  With three waves, the Israeli air force not only has hit main missile and air defense targets in Iran but also has shown that it is capable of ruling the sky throughout the Middle East, even targeting Tehran. Western assessments are, however, very diffuse, as the outcome of this relatively subdued Israeli response is still unclear. A growing amount of analysts, looking at the fact that the Israeli reaction has been coordinated with Washington, expect that this could be a significant sign by Israel to the Shi’a extremist leadership in Iran that they are not willing to enter into a full-scale war. Iran’s current reactions are also very subdued, indicating a possible willingness of Tehran not to put additional oil on the fire.  

Reactions coming from Iranian officials are very cool. In a statement made by the Iranian military, the latter stated that the Israeli attacks only damaged radar systems without really damaging the capabilities of the total armed forces. Tehran also reiterated that most of the Israeli attacks have been thwarted by the country’s air defenses. Other sources have, however, confirmed that the Israeli attacks were highly successful, hitting major radar sites, anti-aircraft missile systems, and several primary Iranian drone and missile factories.  Underreported but very crucial at the same time is the fact that the Israeli air force has been able (or allowed) to fly over Arab airspace of at least two (Jordan-Saudi Arabia) or even three or more (Iraq, Syria) to hit Iran without being hindered or having casualties while entering Iranian air space. The latter is not only remarkable when looking at the ongoing Hezbollah-Hamas war with Israel, which includes support of Iraqi militias, Syrian forces, and Houthis, but also shows directly the full force of the Israeli air force, using F15-16s and F35s inside of Iran. Some American sources have indicated that Israel most probably has been able to use US-controlled areas in Iraq while at the same time using data provided by US (and other) radars and satellites. At the same time, the Israeli air force is slated to have destroyed air defenses en route to Iran in Syria and Iraq, and S-300/S-400 radars in Iran. Some news also has emerged that Israel has hit Iranian ballistic missile fuel factories, pushing the latter development back for years.

The latest information indicates that the sites targeted are:

Amir Al-Momenin Missile Base of the IRGC-ASF at Bidkaneh; which is a cornerstone of Iran’s missile operations, hosting key missile stocks and assembly capabilities.

Ballistic Missile Research Center of the IRGCASF near Bidkaneh: Essential for Iran’s development and enhancement of ballistic missiles, this research center is believed to house sensitive technological and material assets.

IRGCASF Logistics Center in the Southwest of Tehran: This logistical hub supports the IRGC’s missile and aerospace operations, storing critical components and supplies.

Unidentified Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) System Site: Eyewitnesses have noted that a SAM site near Tehran was a target, though poor visibility has prevented clear identification.

SAM Site in Shahriar, south of Tehran: Another critical air-defense location, this SAM site plays a vital role in Tehran’s layered defense network.

In a reaction by Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi, the latter stated, "Iran has a right to self-defense and considers itself entitled and obligated to defend against foreign acts of aggression.” Araghchi also reiterated that Iran has “no limits” in defending its interests. However, surprisingly, the Iranian military stated already that any Iranian retaliatory strike could be stopped by a cease-fire in Israel’s ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon. How far this will result in any positive Israeli reaction is to be seen, as most agree that a cease-fire at present is not leaving Israel any advantages, as long as Hezbollah is not destroyed or the hostages released.

Taking another angle in the current assessment angles, there are no signs that this Israeli military move is a sign of a muted or restrained military operation. Where most Western politicians or media pundits are stating that the restrained Israeli action could even lead to a possible opening to set up a cease-fire or even a solution to end the conflict between Iran and its proxies and Israel, the possibility of a different picture is not even addressed. Energy markets are already again screaming that there is no real geopolitical fallout for crude oil and natural gas (LNG) markets or prices, as Israel has not attacked any nuclear or energy sites in Iran. Monday’s oil prices will probably be subdued, or analysts will look at algorithms or China again. Western military analysts or advisors are split, as should be when taking all into account at a military-strategic level.

As an Israeli analyst already indicated, the latest military action by Israel is just peeling another layer of the Iranian Axis of Resistance (EVIL), while the IDF and the Bibi government are already looking at the result very soon. The Onion theory is prominent when linked to Iran (and proxies). The main goal of all the Israeli strategy (which should maybe even be the Western strategy) is to end not only the threats of terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, to be seen as Layer 1 and 2, but also to remove the Iranian threat and influence in the whole region. To cut off the head of the Snake (Iran’s mullah regime and the IRGC), it is necessary first to deal with the proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. The role of the Houthis is not even considered really, as they don’t present an existential threat to Israel ever. When taking on Iran's military to remove the financier and brain of the Axis of Resistance, any military operation first looks at the removal of the main threat to Israeli forces in and over Iran. The military operation Saturday, 25-Sunday, 26 October, is the first Iranian layer of the Onion, the air defense systems, the radar operation capabilities, and the industrial base for drones and rockets. The first data provided by all sides shows that these were the targets that were not only hit but also destroyed without Israeli casualties. The fact that Israel’s airforce (IDF) has been able not only to hit all targets but do this almost with impunity will not only have surprised the Iranians but also Israel itself. The next chapter can be added to the military strategy books and analyses currently being written on Ukraine-Russia, where Moscow also did not believe the actions of Ukraine’s forces.

To expect that IDF's actions will be the end of the Israeli strategic plan for Iran is most probably an underestimation of the commitment of the Israeli government to deal with Iran. Even though Arab countries are calling for an end to the confrontation between Iran and Israel, don’t forget that Israeli actions can't reach Iran without crossing the Arab world. Riyadh, Manama, Doha, and Abu Dhabi are just worried that Iran could retaliate not only towards Israeli targets but hit Arab oil and gas infrastructure at the same time. Assessments that the GCC powers are trying to smooth up Iran are based on wrong assumptions or out of reality. Arab armed forces understand that they are not able to withstand any Iranian actions at present, at least not without admitting that they need the USA and other Western parties. Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, or Doha, all smoothing up to Moscow and Beijing, understand that both sides are unwilling and able to protect Arab interests.

Israel holds all the cards in its hands to play out a Royal Flush in a way that will hurt Iran. Washington cannot currently leave Israel to be hit by Iran. Bibi Netanyahu and the IDF understand fully that the current geopolitical situation and the weakness of its adversaries are to their advantage, maybe never again if not used.

The Onion is being peeled; militarily, the advantage is clear, as Israel’s IDF rules the sky and can decide which targets are to their liking. To state that the confrontation with Iran is now over or even that the conflict is solved is showing a bit of wishful thinking used by Westerners, not by hard-core politicians in the ROW, who fully understand the power of Military Power and Situational Awareness.

It is 100% clear that the next layer of the Onion is being discussed, which is the hydrocarbon infrastructure and nuclear facilities of Iran. To wait too long is handing over the advantage to hard-core extremists in Iran to speed up their nuclear program. It doesn’t matter if this will take 3 weeks or 6 months; the IDF has pushed the button already.

Bulls should be waking up, and farmers (politicians, financials, and analysts) should open up the gates to very green meadows for them, as it could be a stampede coming based on a full-scale reorganization of the MENA region power structures, also hitting allies of these forces, such as China, Russia, and others. Jerusalem understands that Biden and Trump are unwilling to lose votes and power by constraining the Israelis. Hitting Iran is also an advantage for Western interests in Ukraine (Iranian drones) or even with China (oil-gas-ports).