In this issue: A look forward & back; a view from the room where it happened; MPP & ITA news update

Signal from MPP | Issue No. 18 | December 2024

As 2024 draws to a close some reflections from the team: 

Looking back & looking forward - Faustine Delasalle , CEO Mission Possible Partnership (MPP)

In 2024, MPP celebrated its fifth anniversary. Looking back on our journey brings to light how much progress we have made on industry and transport decarbonisation over what is, after all, a relatively short period of time.

• Back in 2019, it wasn’t evident to industry leaders that achieving near-zero emissions in heavy-emitting sectors was feasible, nor desirable. Today, we know we have the technologies to make it happen, many companies and countries are committed to making it happen, and industry leaders have indeed started to produce clean materials, chemicals, and fuels.
• Since COP28, MPP has been tracking the global pipeline of green industrial projects against the industry backed 2030 milestones which would bring us in line with net-zero. Our latest update and insights, released at COP29, show that the pipeline of announced projects has grown tremendously. However, only 136 projects have passed Final Investment Decision (FID) globally, which is less than 20% of what we need up and running by 2030.
• The next mountain to climb is still in front of us, but it’s one that will open a horizon of new business opportunities: if we can scale low-carbon industrial production, we will unlock cost reduction and exponential growth. I am convinced there are two industrial revolutions in motion: the AI revolution and the green revolution.

This green revolution can still seem far away. And, after a year of multiple divisive elections, continuing conflicts and extreme weather events, it is easy to feel gloomy. But the fight against climate breakdown continues across multiple arenas, and opportunities may arise in each of them:

• The geopolitical: The COPs, G20s, G7s, and CEMs of the world are where global climate goals often collide with diplomatic and trade tensions. Could it also be where new leadership flourishes in the next years, with India, Brazil, and other emerging countries seizing the real economic opportunities of green industrialisation?
• The economic: At MPP, we engage deeply with companies to understand and navigate the intricacies of their investment decisions. I was reminded this year that this arena remains a tough battle ground in sectors where climate solutions are not yet cost-competitive, but some companies do see the long-term economic benefits of leading on clean technologies, will continue to disrupt their sectors, and in doing so prompt a race for technology leadership.
• The financial: The finance world speaks the language of risks and returns. Today, this often means that finance players are reluctant to step up in heavy-emitting industry and transport sectors. But, in a world where climate breakdown impacts agricultural yields, infrastructure, and real estate among other sectors, some segments of the financial sector may become a more fertile ground for climate action.
• The national: Each country comes with its local ecosystem of political and economic players and with its own idiosyncrasies. Often, it's at national level that climate falls to the bottom of the agenda, behind economic and social issues... that ironically are increasingly impacted by climate change. How can we do more to work with local allies? We’re open to ideas.

The window of opportunity is closing to bring green industrial projects to FID before 2026, so that they can make a dent on emissions by 2030. 2025 needs to be a year of acceleration. We will face headwinds, but can find favourable sea currents too. In high seas, I look forward to partnering up with our growing web of partners and allies in a spirit of stubborn optimism.

A view from in the room where it happened… James Schofield, Deputy Director of the Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA)

Baku is a stunningly beautiful city, a mix of the ancient, with Azeri walls; the recent past, with soviet era Brutalist architecture; and the modern, with gleaming office towers – but we had little time to explore it or see many views. COP itself was typically intense, full of panel discussions and bilateral meetings from morning to night.

For MPP and the Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) , COP was a positive and constructive experience, we convened three sessions over the first week which were very well attended with participation at ministerial and CEO level. 

The first was a roundtable held under Chatham House rules on the importance of demand policies with very strong interventions from heads of major industrial companies, international economists and senior ministers who managed to join in-between negotiations. The second, open session included the Brazilian Secretary of Green Economy, Decarbonization and Bioindustry, Rodrigo Rollemberg, along with our Board Member, Lord Adair Turner, and many notable others; for the final session we brought together stakeholders from our on the ground work for a rich discussion on our country programs, learnings and insights.

On returning home, the theme I am left with is collaboration. Of course, everybody is aware that despite reaching an agreement on finance, it is widely seen as insufficient and other key COP topics were not concluded leaving many unhappy. But, despite slow progress, when it comes to the high emitting sectors which cause 30% of global emissions, there seems to be broad optimism and acknowledgement that they can be decarbonised. This is huge progress on five years ago.

What we saw this year, more than ever, was the attempt to coordinate across organisations. There is acknowledgment that a proliferation of new initiatives at every COP doesn’t move the dial and instead we need to drive greater collaboration and coordination between those that already exist. For us this means we continue to explore opportunities to join forces with others, but a word of caution, as I ran from meeting to meeting, a lot of the same faces appeared in the rooms. While everyone is full of good intent, we should all be aware of the broader political and economic circumstances we are living in. We must align with others in our climate community to amplify a consistent message on the issues that will move the dial, and beyond this community embrace a diversity of voices collaborating across geographies, governments and companies to fast-track change. And we must focus even more on tangible action. For the ITA, that means a laser focus on activities that will actually help deep decarbonisation projects get off the ground and into production. In 2025 and over the next five years, collaborating radically, we can do even more.

MPP & ITA NEWS

Business and finance call on government to unlock demand for low-carbon products and accelerate industrial projects worth $1 trillion

The Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA), backed by 50 business leaders, coalitions and a network of over 700 financial institutions, issued an open letter at COP29 stressing the urgent need for policies to stimulate demand and bridge the stalemate between producers and customers.  Uncertain demand and a lack of incentives is stalling industrial decarbonisation and preventing investment in green facilities due to low priced higher carbon products. Without targeted interventions, the world’s highest emitting industries including aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel, aviation, and shipping risk missing 2030 climate targets.  

Key challenges

New data from MPP’s Global Project tracker shows a growing pipeline of nearly 700 industrial projects, but despite this, since April, fewer than 20%, just eight globally have secured funding to begin construction. 561 projects are announced but not yet definitively confirmed and with over 300 projects stalled for at least two years, progress toward decarbonisation remains critically slow. At the current pace of conversion from announced to Final Investment Decision (FID), it could take 35 years for these projects to come online—far exceeding the 2030 emissions reduction target.

A significant barrier is the lack of incentives for businesses to purchase low-carbon products such as green steel, green cement, and sustainable fuels. Cheaper, high-carbon alternatives remain dominant, making it challenging for producers to secure long-term commitments from buyers. The economic downturn further complicates investment decisions, leaving many projects stranded.

Proven policy measures can unlock demand and level the playing field

Up to $1 trillion in investment could be unlocked and bring over 500 green projects into construction by 2030 through proven policies. Alongside the open letter, the ITA published a Green Demand Policy Playbook setting out the range of evidence-based measures available to governments that if applied would help to level the playing field and stimulate demand:

• Carbon Pricing: Implementing predictable carbon pricing at levels sufficient to make low-carbon products competitive while addressing carbon leakage risks.
• Mandatory Quotas: Enforcing quotas for near-zero-carbon fuels and materials, which tighten progressively. Examples include clean hydrogen, ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).
• Public Procurement: Governments prioritizing green products, such as steel and cement, in public projects to create market certainty.
• Embodied Carbon Limits: Setting strict carbon-intensity standards for products like buildings, vehicles, and industrial goods to encourage green materials and energy efficiency.
• Financial Incentives: Deploying subsidies, contracts for difference, and intermediaries to bridge the price gap between green and conventional products, particularly for socially sensitive sectors like agriculture.

These policies are also highly synergistic across sectors – triggering demand can drive decarbonisation for multiple upstream sectors. Stimulating green demand in construction, for example, will drive the production of green materials across several sectors (concrete, steel, and aluminium). 

Green shoots for growth and new opportunities for green industry in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EM&DEs)

An increasing share of projects are being planning in the global South with regions like India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia benefit from low-cost renewable energy and supportive policies. India’s National Green Hydrogen Mission combines quotas, competitive bidding, and hydrogen hub development to scale green production. Data from the Global Project Tracker shows nearly 40% of recent projects achieving FID are in EM&DEs, including Vietnam, Malaysia, Namibia, and the UAE.

Upcoming events & partnerships

• James Schofield, ITA Deputy Director, will be speaking at the Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week 2025, January 12-17
• Look out for, and come and say hello to our team and Senior Fellows at Davos, January 20th –24th

Mission Possible Partnership is a movement of climate leaders in business and civil society driving industrial decarbonisation across the entire value chain of the world’s highest-emitting sectors: aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel; aviation, shipping, and trucking. We’re charting the inventive steps and radical collaboration to enable commercial-scale deep decarbonisation projects in this decisive decade.