ITK Daily | January 13

Happy Friday.

Here’s today’s ITK Daily.

To be ITK, know this:

Insight | The situation determines the tactic.

A proper tactic is not only about what job needs to be done; it is also about comprehending the environment of the situation.

David Snowden and Mary Boone formulated a useful framework that takes into account the environment of the situation and sorts out which tactic will be best for the job.

Snowden and Boone called their tool the Cynefin framework.

Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies there are multiple factors in our environment and from our experiences that influence us in ways that we can never fully recognize or understand.

You can read the full post here.

Albert Rösti, from oil lobbyist to Swiss environment minister: Albert Rösti was, among other things, the main advocate for oil among his fellow MPs. But since January 1, he has become the head of climate issues in the Swiss Federal Council. Le Monde

Emmanuel Macron has invited Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to France on March 10 to hold a bilateral summit.

How Rishi Sunak can turn Millennials into Tories: Help for young parents and renters are more effective than grand visions for a generation so far impervious to conservatism. Sebastian Payne

Everything in Britain is broken Rod Liddle

Boris Johnson plans to visit Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Ukraine: Guardian reports senior Tories are concerned the trip could undermine Rishi Sunak’s authority, and say ex-PM just wants to boost his speaking profile.

Big lesson of the Ukraine war: There’s only one superpower: The effort against Russia has illustrated what a world without American power would look like — and what it looks like when America uses its unmatched power well. Hal Brands

Moscow puts Gerasimov in charge in Ukraine in latest military shake-up: Three months after his much-heralded appointment as commander of the Russian forces in the field, General Surovikin was removed and replaced by Valery Guerasimov. Le Monde

Russia's cyberattacks aim to 'terrorize' Ukrainians: Politomc reports: “The longer Russia wages this war, the harder it is going to be on those Ukrainian people,” an NSA official said.

The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration: The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. Janusz Bugajski

Germany’s Green foreign minister is taking the lead on Ukraine Katja Hoyer

+ "Baerbock has made her intentions clear. Where Scholz is all reluctance and realpolitik, she is positioning herself as a can-do politician with strong principles."

Robert Habeck was Germany’s most popular politician. Then he took office: He helped get the Greens into government, but Putin’s war threw everything he stood for into question. FT

More than half of German companies report labor shortages: Reuters reports more than half of Germany's companies are struggling to fill vacancies due to a lack of skilled workers, the German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) said on Thursday, in the latest sign of growth headwinds belaboring Europe's largest economy.

Dutch prime minister making US trip to discuss China tech export ban: FT reports the US has been pressing the Netherlands and Japan to match its export controls of Beijing to prevent it from catching up with advanced technology used in weapons systems. US officials have said that any deal needs to be concluded with Japan and the Netherlands together.

Japan begins to throw off its pacifist shackles: Rishi Sunak and Fumio Kishida are forging closer military ties, and the defense budget is being boosted — but what difference will the changes to Japan’s security policy make to the strategic balance in Asia? The Times

Japan’s leader hopes White House visit will give him a political boost: President Biden hopes so too, as the Japanese public bristles at the cost of a more muscular military. WP

Japan, US eye satellite data-sharing for counterstrike operations: Nikkei report allies start weighing specific steps to bolster bilateral response in emergencies.

US beefs up Marine unit in Japan amid fresh threats from China: Politico reports new Marine littoral regiment will include anti-ship missiles.

So Republicans want to look tough on China? Here’s how they can start. Jennifer Rubin

SCMP: US House bans emergency oil sales to Chinese Communist Party-linked entities in rebuke to Biden policy

+ Republicans argue the American leader’s decision last year to release 180 million barrels from the national reserve hurt energy security

+ Bill next goes to the Democratic-controlled Senate, where passage is expected to be difficult amid criticism the legislation achieves little

US party preferences evenly split in 2022 after shift to GOP Gallup

+ 45% identified as or leaned Republican; 44% identified as or leaned Democratic

+ Democrats had at least a three-point edge each year from 2012 to 2021

+ Largest percentage of Americans still identify as independent

The House of Representatives has become the epicenter of MAGA revenge: The new Republican speaker of the House of Representatives, Kevin McCarthy, had to ally himself with the most extreme fringe of his party to get elected, effectively giving them a central role. Le Monde

Donald Trump plans to hold his first presidential campaign event of the year in South Carolina later this month.

His star rising, Youngkin juggles local issues and national ambition: Virginia’s Republican governor is considering a presidential run, but a divided state legislature may thwart his ambitions for conservative policy victories. NYT

AP: DeSantis tested on immigration as he weighs 2024 candidacy

AP: New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand launches reelection bid

Ro Khanna says he’s looking at the Senate. His allies are talking about the White House. Politico reports the California Democrat has been paying consultants and firms with ties to New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa.

+ Nancy Pelosi raised more than $1 billion for Democrats during her 20 years in leadership, according to her team.

In a first, South Korea declares nuclear weapons a policy option: NYT reports President Yoon Suk Yeol said that if North Korea’s nuclear threat grows, his country may build a nuclear arsenal of its own or ask the United States to redeploy in the South.

Chinese warned not to visit elderly relatives as COVID spreads from cities: Guardian reports people urged ‘don’t go home’ during lunar new year holiday if older family members not yet infected.

+ About half of the nearly 2,000 workers at the Beijing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine got COVID-19 during the latest wave, director Liu Qingquan said.

How bad is China’s COVID outbreak? WP

Were China’s three years of strict Covid controls a wasted opportunity? Holly Chik

+ Medical and economic analysts say the country bought itself time and saved lives but failed to prepare for the lifting of controls

+ Despite locking cities down for prolonged periods and imposing strict control on movements, the low vaccination rate among the elderly may prove a crucial error

Analysis: China's elderly pay ultimate price for COVID missteps: Senior citizens die at an unprecedented pace, leaving families devastated. Nikkei

Marcos plans Philippine wealth fund 'soft launch' at Davos: Nikkei reports the president's Switzerland trip won't revive the issue of ill-gotten riches, official says.

10 breakthrough technologies 2023 MIT TR

1. CRISPR for high cholesterol

2. AI that makes images

3. RISC-V chip design

4. Mass-market military drones

5. Abortion pills via telemedicine

6. Organs on demand

7. The inevitable EV

8. James Webb Space Telescope

9. Ancient DNA analysis

10. Battery recycling

JWST has taken astonishing images of debris orbiting a nearby star: NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has observed a glowing disc of debris left over from planet formation around a nearby star called AU Microscopii. New Scientist

Russia to send replacement craft to retrieve crew from space station: The Soyuz capsule that carried two cosmonauts and a NASA astronaut to the station was damaged, possibly by a micrometeoroid. WP

Electric vehicles look poised for slower sales growth this year: BloombergNEF forecasts about 13.6 million deliveries, up from more than 10 million in 2022.

Tesla is close to sealing a preliminary deal to set up a factory in Indonesia.

Inside the increasingly perilous quest to get battery-powered aircraft off the ground FT

How AI's digital memory can debunk brand narratives: ChatGPT’s single-response search results are also a de facto BS detector and greenwashing filter. Pete Blackshaw

Twitter said to consider selling user names to boost revenue: The company has discussed selling some user names through online auctions, people with knowledge of the plans said. NYT

The fight for Disney: Magic Kingdom prepares for battle with Nelson Peltz: Corporate drama pits chief executive Bob Iger against the veteran activist. FT

Vancouver skyscraper twists around zoning restrictions: Danish architecture firm Bjarke Ingels Group used limitations to its advantage with the gravity-defying Vancouver House apartment tower. CityLab

A snowless Davos tells the world’s elite all they need to know: As the rich and powerful gather for the World Economic Forum, these photos show how the impact of global warming is getting harder to ignore. Bloomberg

Climate startup removes carbon from open air in industry first: Climeworks cashes in on new technology by selling carbon credits to Microsoft and others. WSJ

Exxon made ‘breathtakingly’ accurate climate predictions in 1970s and 80s: The oil company drove some of the leading science of the era only to dismiss global heating publicly. Guardian

Saudi Aramco bets on being the last oil major standing: While some western energy companies prepare for a future less reliant on fossil fuels, the world’s biggest supplier is doubling down. FT

Failed crypto exchange FTX has recovered over $5 bln, attorney says: Reuters reports Crypto exchange FTX has recovered more than $5 billion in liquid assets, but the extent of customer losses in the collapse of the company founded by Sam Bankman-Fried is still unknown, an attorney for the company told a US bankruptcy court on Wednesday.

Google says Supreme Court ruling could potentially upend the internet: Tech giant files brief in YouTube case brought by the family of a woman killed in Paris terrorist attacks. WSJ

What happened when the olive-oil startup apologized: The CEO told 35,544 customers he was sorry. It worked. WSJ

+ “All you need to do is dig deep, reflect on all the things in marketing and brand communication that piss you off, and do the exact opposite.”

Why do we get our best ideas in the shower? The science of shower thoughts teaches us the importance of mind-wandering for creativity. Richard Sima

+ But the nature of the mind-wandering matters; Schooler’s research has found that people who mind wandered about something they’re interested in were happier than when they were on task.

+ Having free-flowing, spontaneous thoughts during a moderately engaging activity, but not a boring one, boosted creativity.

+ @LeighGeorge: Was just thinking about this. Walking your dog, even just walking around your living space can make new ideas and connection seem to pop into your head out of nowhere.

All you need to know about the Year of the Rabbit: The Lunar New Year, or Spring Festival, marks the transition of the Chinese zodiac sign from one animal to the next. 2023 sees in the Year of the Rabbit, which begins on January 22. In Chinese culture, the Rabbit symbolizes longevity, peace, and prosperity. 2023 is predicted to be a year of hope. SCMP

US judge orders museum not to move Van Gogh painting caught in row: A US judge has ordered a museum to keep hold of a Vincent Van Gogh painting after a collector filed a lawsuit alleging the work had been stolen from him. AFP

Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren to depart for the NFL’s Chicago Bears: WSJ reports in three years at the Big Ten, Warren made a high-profile deal to lure UCLA and USC and struck a record-setting TV deal.

Bloomberg: Fanatics to launch sports betting at Commanders stadium next week

The perfect job for Jim Harbaugh: It’s at a public school in Ann Arbor. Large stadium, cool helmets. More soulfully nourishing than any NFL gig. Jason Gay

Enjoy the ride + plan accordingly.

-Marc 

Marc A. Ross | Founder + Team Principal @ Caracal

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