It’s sink or swim for the ANC in South Africa’s momentous May elections

18 Apr 2024 - By Tonderayi Mukeredzi

National Assembly and provincial elections on 29 May could produce a significant shift in South African power dynamics, with speculation that the African National Congress (ANC)’s parliamentary majority is in jeopardy for the first time since the apartheid era ended. The ANC’s weak showing in recent opinion polls suggests it may be forced into a coalition government, rather than holding power on its own (AE 476, 469).

A poll released by the Johannesburg-based Social Research Foundation (SRF) on 10 April projected the ANC would collect just 37% of the national vote. Its main opponent, the Democratic Alliance (DA), was tipped to get 25%, with ex-president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) on 13%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 11% and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) on 5%.

That points to a steep decline from the 57.5% the ANC secured at the last election in 2019 – which itself was the party’s worst national performance since assuming power in 1994. Another eye-catching element of the opinion poll was Zuma’s recently-created MKP faring so well – with a vote concentrated in KwaZulu Natal that could amplify the disgraced ex-president’s impact.

But there is still much to play for in a South African system, where the electorate vote for members of parliament who then elect the president.

In tightly-argued comments to African Energy’s 10 April Elections and electricity: Power in South Africa webinar, one participant predicted the ANC could still win a national majority, particularly if it sharpened its appeal to younger people – the so-called ‘born frees’. While coalitions were a probability for the ANC at the local level, the party had the ability to “pull out all the stops” and get out a better-than-expected share of the national vote, they said. This participant observed that the ANC had been providing social grants and other benefits for poorer voters and “the party that can provide the most social goods, the most social capital, is the party that will win”.

In recent speeches, President Cyril Ramaphosa has been appealing to voters to remember the ANC’s legacy and gains, along with his government’s efforts to end the ‘state capture’ of the Zuma years (AE 460) and promote a huge upturn in renewable energy (RE) procurement to tackle loadshedding (AE 500).

Some 27m people are expected to vote in May, when the main battlegrounds will be in the country’s most populous region, Gauteng province, Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu Natal, the DA-controlled Western Cape (which the ANC would love to win back) and Free State. Other, smaller provinces may provide a more traditional ANC majority.

If the ANC fails to retain its majority, it could be forced to build a coalition government from a selection of some 50 smaller parties. The most likely larger partner is Julius Malema’s populist, left-wing EFF, but this would pose problems for Ramaphosa’s more market-friendly arm of the ANC.

If such a big deal is not needed, it is widely expected that Ramaphosa will seek to stitch together a working majority with smaller, often highly personalised and regional parties – a process that could trigger a fiesta of pork barrel politics.

Failing an ANC majority or even an ANC-led coalition, the DA could try to stitch together a governing majority of its own. The DA joined seven smaller parties last year to form the Multi-Party Charter (MPC) in an ambitious bid to displace the ANC. However, internal disagreements have since emerged that could affect the MPC’s chances in the upcoming elections – and the DA seems unable to shake off a widespread perception that it is a ‘white liberal’ party, a reputation it needs to shed if it is to win a much bigger slice of the national vote.

The academic participant commented: “The DA is still a long way from the ANC and is likely to remain very much a provincial party. Liberation movements have a long shelf-life in governments on the continent.”

The ANC, meanwhile, “is a powerful brand, which has gripped the imagination of its supporters for more than a century,” the participant said. Its “real opposition can only come from within the ANC itself, from Zuma and the South African Communist Party”.

Although polls suggest the MKP could undermine the ANC’s chances, observers are divided over the extent of Zuma’s influence, which some believe is limited to his KwaZulu Natal stronghold. President from 2009-18, as South Africa descended into a governance crisis, Zuma was cleared to stand in the election by the Electoral Court on 9 April, after being banned by the electoral commission over his criminal record.

The ANC for its part insists it can still retain its parliamentary majority. “We will not go to war having accepted defeat. We are going to war to win,” ANC veteran Nomvula Mokonyane told Reuters in mid-March (AE 500).

But even if it loses its majority, the ANC is all but certain to remain the biggest party in parliament and a dominant political force. Any coalition partner is unlikely to be able to force it to make many significant policy changes.

Rivals vow to address power deficits

The failure of Ramaphosa’s administration to end severe electricity shortages, along with problems around port and rail infrastructure, rampant crime, high unemployment and official corruption, have all diminished the ANC’s support base.

Among the recent signs of problems, ANC veteran and former parliamentary speaker Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula was charged with corruption and money laundering in early April; she has denied any wrongdoing.

The government has attempted to fix the electricity crisis by removing constraints on private generation, encouraging independent power producers and appointing a dedicated electricity minister. However, as yet, none of these measures have brought relief (AE 466, 455).

Power shortages have been a key issue in the election, with parties competing with promises to address the problem. However, analysts caution that among swathes of the poor – whose shacks are not supplied with grid electricity – it is not such an issue. Their votes are an ANC, MKP and EFF battleground.

The ANC has said it would will create 3.5m jobs, prioritise food security and invest in infrastructure, especially roads and railways and the transmission grid to end loadshedding and ensure a secure electricity supply. It has also pledged to develop gas, nuclear and hydroelectric power projects to boost energy generation, and to increase rooftop solar systems.

The DA has vowed to privatise electricity generation and end Eskom’s monopoly, allow greater private sector generation, offer tax rebates to promote rooftop solar systems and prioritise improvements to grid infrastructure.

The EFF has said it would increase investment in renewable electricity, expand Eskom’s generating capacity and establish a state-owned mining company to manage the coal mines as part of a broad agenda to nationalise assets.

Coalition government could complicate matters

Some business players tend to play down the elections’ consequences. An AIX participant expected the momentum of electricity sector reform to continue after the election.

However, other commentators said that, if a coalition government emerges, it could be more difficult for it to agree and implement reforms. This could hamper the progress of new power projects and thus prolong the electricity supply crisis.

Whoever takes over will find there are no quick fixes to issues which have persisted for years. Among the challenges in the electricity sector, the next government will have to build up transmission capacity, which is constrained and threatening to limit the addition of new power to the grid.

Up to ZAR400bn ($21bn) is needed to improve grid infrastructure over the next decade. The private sector could play a more active role in a sector badly in need of investment, especially when the next government will have limited ability to invest.

The critical question is whether South Africa’s leaders will be able to deliver a business environment in which those with the means to invest will want to commit their money.

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