James G. March and the Garbage Can Model: Making Sense of Decision-Making
If you ask a leader about the hardest part of their job, most would agree: it’s decision-making. It’s never as straightforward as it looks. It’s tough, messy, and full of uncertainty. James G. March, a brilliant organisational theorist, understood this better than most. But instead of offering a neat solution, he gave us a way to see the chaos for what it is. He called it the Garbage Can Model.
Yes, a garbage can.
March, who spent decades teaching at Stanford University, had a knack for making sense of organisational behaviour. He studied how decisions were actually made, not how people imagined they were made. His Garbage Can Model, introduced in 1972, turned the idea of rational decision-making on its head. Instead of seeing decisions as logical and orderly, March showed that they’re often messy and unpredictable.
What’s Inside the Garbage Can?
March’s model describes organisations as large garbage cans where four things get tossed in:
• Problems: Issues that need solving, sometimes urgent, sometimes vague.
• Solutions: Ideas that people have, whether or not they solve any problem.
• Participants: People involved in making decisions, often just because they’re available.
• Choice Opportunities: Moments when decisions must be made, like meetings or deadlines.
The magic—or the chaos—happens when these collide. Decisions are made not because the best solution was chosen for the right problem, but because the right mix of problems, solutions, people, and timing accidentally came together.
Why Decisions Aren’t Always Logical
The Garbage Can Model explains why decision-making often feels random. Sometimes, people create solutions before problems even exist. For example, someone might push for a fancy new tool without knowing why it’s needed. Other times, decisions are made because certain people are in the room—not because they’re the best qualified, but simply because they were free to attend.
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This model helps us see that decision-making isn’t always about careful planning or logic. It’s shaped by chance, timing, and the messy realities of organisational life.
Why the Garbage Can Model Matters
This approach is particularly useful in complex, unstructured, or politically charged organisations. It’s a reminder that decision-making doesn’t always follow a straight line. Priorities shift, people disagree, and solutions appear out of nowhere. Leaders who understand this are better equipped to navigate the chaos.
Beyond the Garbage Can
The Garbage Can Model is just one of March’s many contributions. He spent his career exploring why decision-making is so complicated. In his book A Primer on Decision Making, March argued that people rely on history, politics, and shortcuts when making decisions. Perfect logic is rarely an option.
March’s work, including books like Organizations (co-written with Herbert Simon) and Ambiguity and Choice in Organizations, changed how we think about leadership. He showed that decisions are influenced by biases, past experiences, and even emotions.
Lessons for Today
March’s ideas are more relevant than ever. His work reminds leaders to stop expecting perfection. Decision-making isn’t about following a perfect formula; it’s about making sense of the chaos. The Garbage Can Model shows us that even when things feel random, progress can still happen.
So, the next time work feels overwhelming, think of March. Toss your problems, ideas, and people into the metaphorical bin. Let them mix. Eventually, the right combination might fall into place. It may not be perfect, but it might just be good enough.
And if nothing else, it’s comforting to know that even the chaos has a method—however messy it may be.
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