The Japan Times: When Russia fights the wrong enemy
By S.C.M. Paine Project Syndicate - Dec 27, 2024
NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND –
Like Czar Nicholas II, Russian President Vladmir Putin has misidentified his primary foe. Fighting a war of choice, he allows the real menace to his country to gather strength. China, not Ukraine, constitutes Russia’s existential threat. In the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05), Nicholas II fought Japan over Manchuria for concessions that Russia could not monetize, instead of investing in the railways and munitions needed to fight the country’s actual enemy, Germany, a decade later.
Defeat in World War I cost Nicholas II and his family their lives after the Bolsheviks seized power. Nobles who did not suffer the same violent fate as the czar fled abroad, often dying in penury.
The West and Ukraine never intended to invade Russia, let alone take its territory. Who in the West would want it? China, on the other hand, very well might. Its long list of grievances dates back centuries, to the czars who removed large swaths of territory — an area larger than the United States east of the Mississippi River — from China’s sphere of influence.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was a pivotal error — the type that precludes a return to the prewar status quo. Instead, such errors lead to alternatives that are far less desirable. The question is not whether Russia will lose the Ukraine War (in strategic terms, it already has), but only how big the loss will be.
The war has cost Russia more than 700,000 casualties. It has forced Russia to reorient its lucrative European energy trade to less profitable markets. It has depressed productivity through sanctions. It has led to the impoundment of its foreign-exchange reserves, with the accruing interest diverted to Ukraine. It has triggered the flight of hundreds of thousands of prime working-age citizens (often highly educated and in the crucial tech sector). It has precipitated the bombing of Russian factories, military bases, and infrastructure, as well as the first invasion of its territory (in the Kursk region) since World War II. And it has brought about the expansion and reinvigoration of NATO, with Sweden and Finland’s accession to membership in the alliance transforming the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake.
Even if U.S. President-elect Donald Trump somehow ends the Ukraine conflict, Putin cannot reverse these losses. And the longer the war in Ukraine continues, the weaker Russia will become, leading many to wonder when it will decide to staunch its losses. Russians ousted Nicholas II for mismanaging the war, wrecking the economy, and being profligate with the lives of his subjects. Like Nicholas II’s entourage, Putin’s is helping him double down on his bad decision to invade Ukraine instead of bailing out while they still can. But the longer they stick with Putin, the greater their vulnerability to China will become.
The question is not whether China will turn on Russia, but when. China will eventually eat Russia’s lunch; the only remaining uncertainty is how big the meal will be. Russia has expended much of its Cold War arsenal on Ukraine, leaving Siberia wide open to Chinese ambitions. Siberia has the resources that China covets: not only energy and minerals, but, more importantly, water. Lake Baikal is larger than Belgium and contains 20% of the world’s fresh surface water, which North China desperately needs.
Putin apparently intends to escalate his way to victory. The war started with his bungled invasion and attempt at regime change in Kyiv, followed by efforts to bludgeon Ukrainians into submission with massacres of civilians in cities like Bucha, the gratuitous destruction of homes and towns, and cross-border abductions of thousands of children. Then came the targeting of civilian shelters, hospitals, schools, museums, and power stations; the summary executions and torture of POWs; the destruction of the massive Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River; threats to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (although Russia, not Ukraine, sits downwind from it); and the use of mines, Turkish drones, ballistic missiles, cluster munitions, glide bombs, and now North Korean troops.
If Putin used nuclear weapons, which he has periodically threatened to do, Russians would become the pariahs of the twenty-first century, replacing the Nazis of the last century. Like the Germans before them, Russians also support wars of territorial conquest. After the Soviet Union’s export of its economic model impoverished so much of the world (itself included), nuking a neighbor would cement Russia’s status as the world’s most regressive country, and its people as the world’s most brutal. The negative strategic effects for Russia and Russians would last for generations — just ask the Germans.
The million-ruble question is whether Putin’s entourage intends to stick with him for the entire ride, which would leave them at China’s, not Putin’s, mercy and headed toward an economic destination similar to that of North Korea. From China, they should expect retribution for Russia’s chain of abuse going back to the mid-nineteenth century.
Russia’s power brokers should ask whose interests the Ukraine War now serves. At this stage, the answer is clear: Putin’s alone. The rest of us can observe their unfolding national disaster as they decide between salvaging what they can and going down with the ship.
To avoid the fate of the Russian nobility — or falling from high-rise windows — the Russian elite could incentivize Putin to retire and cut their country’s losses by returning territory in exchange for keeping their personal wealth. Unfortunately, Russians seem to require national catastrophes to precipitate a reassessment of their strategy.-
About:
S.C.M. Paine, university professor of history and grand strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, is the author of many books, including "Imperial Rivals: China, Russia and Their Disputed Frontier" (Routledge, 1996), "The Japanese Empire: Grand Strategy from the Meiji Restoration to the Pacific War" (Cambridge University Press, 2017) and "The Wars for Asia, 1911-1949" (Cambridge University Press, 2012). © Project Syndicate, 2024.
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NEWSNATION
Former President Jimmy Carter dies at 100
NewsNation Staff
Updated: Dec 30, 2024 / 05:41 AM CST
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(NewsNation) — The longest-lived U.S. president in history, Jimmy Carter, has died at the age of 100. Carter, who served as the 39th president of the United States from 1977 to 1981, died Sunday in Plains, Georgia.
Carter was the third-oldest living person to have served as a state leader. He had been receiving hospice care since February 2023. The Carter Center confirmed his death via X.
Sitting President Joe Biden addressed the nation in the hours following Carter’s passing, honoring the friend and fellow politician.
“Today, America and the world lost an extraordinary leader, statesman, and humanitarian,” President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden also said in a statement. Biden described Carter’s life as one of principle, humility, and service, adding, “He saved, lifted, and changed the lives of people all across the globe.”
“My father was a hero, not only to me but to everyone who believes in peace, human rights, and unselfish love,” said Chip Carter, the former president’s son. “My brothers, sister, and I shared him with the rest of the world through these common beliefs. The world is our family because of the way he brought people together, and we thank you for honoring his memory by continuing to live these shared beliefs.”
Presidential historian and friend of Carter’s, Dr. Larry Cook, remembered Carter as a gracious and caring man guided by his faith and values.
“He’s let it be known that his faith has guided him since he was a child and up through his adult life and through the presidency and beyond,” Cook said. “It’s who he is, his faith is who he is.”
Carter was preceded in death by his wife, Rosalynn Carter, who died Nov. 19, 2023. The former president and first lady had the longest marriage of any first couple in U.S. history and celebrated their 77th wedding anniversary in July 2023.
“They’ve experienced everything that you can together. I think the beautiful thing is that they are still together,” the Carters’ grandson, Josh Carter, told People magazine. “They are still holding hands … it’s just amazing.”
Born Oct. 1, 1924, in Plains, Georgia, James Earl Carter Jr. was the first person on his father’s side of his family to graduate from high school.
He was the only United States Naval Academy graduate to be elected to the White House.
Presidential historian Robert Dallek said Carter will be remembered for his post-presidential work than his time in office.
“He’ll never be seen as a great president. But he will be seen as a great humanitarian,” Dallek said.
A month after Carter graduated, he married Eleanor Rosalynn Carter in 1946.
“She’s the girl I want to marry,” Jimmy Carter told his mother after his first date with Smith, who had grown up as a friend and neighbor of the Carter family in Plains, Georgia.
In July 1953, Carter gave up his military career to save his family’s peanut farm and later became involved in local politics when he served on an education board.
Carter served as the 76th governor of Georgia from 1971 to 1975 and as a Georgia state senator from 1963 to 1967.
After Carter’s presidency, in 1982, he founded the Carter Center, which has played an active role in human rights and disease prevention issues globally. The Carters helped publicize Habitat for Humanity as well.
Public observances will be held in Atlanta and Washington, D.C., along with a private internment in Plains, Georgia.
The details of his final arrangements have not been confirmed yet by the Joint Task Force-National Capital Region and the U.S. Army Military District of Washington.
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Jimmy Carter’s accomplishments, in and out of office
Katie Smith - Updated: Dec 29, 2024 / 04:42 PM CST
Carter envisioned a “competent and compassionate” government. From his championing of human rights to his environmentally conscious track record to his negotiating, policy-setting and personal contributions, echoes of Carter’s influence are still noticeable today.
Here’s a look at his legacy, both in the White House and in the years after.
Camp David Peace Accords
In 1978, Carter played a significant role in the Camp David Accords, a pair of agreements that helped stabilize an otherwise tumultuous relationship between Egypt and Israel. From the outset of his presidency, Carter hoped to reconvene the Geneva Conference to end Arab-Israeli tensions. Ultimately, two weeks of secret negotiations at the U.S. presidential retreat Camp David yielded results.
Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin signed a series of agreements in September 1978. The Camp David Peace Accords are thought to be a framework for a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt the following year.
The Carter Center
Carter and former first lady Rosalynn Carter went on to establish a non-profit organization centered on human rights in 1982.
Today, the Carter Center is responsible for observing 114 elections in 39 countries “to help establish and strengthen democracies” and was a leader in new public health approaches to prevent and control diseases in Africa and Latin America, according to the organization’s website.
By 2002, Carter would be awarded a Nobel Peace Prize “for his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development.”
Creation of the Department of Education
President Andrew Johnson first attempted to create a U.S. Department of Education in 1867, but it was downgraded to the Office of Education out of fear it would have too much power over local schools. Under Carter, the Department of Education was officially created in 1980 with a different vision.
While Johnson’s department would have existed primarily to collect data about the nation’s schools, Carter’s was born out of growing efforts to help foster equal access to education, according to the department’s website.
Congress passed the Department of Education Organization Act in October 1979, and the department began carrying out its duties the following May.
Established national energy policy
Carter created the U.S. Department of Energy and is behind policy establishing national energy goals.
The National Energy Act focused on reducing annual growth in energy demand and oil imports and gasoline consumption as well as improving the efficacy of heating and cooling systems, increasing coal production and introducing solar energy in American homes.
He’s also been lauded for decontrolling domestic petroleum prices to stimulate production.
The Carter Work Project
Carter was in New York to speak at a church in 1984 when he stopped by a Habitat for Humanity construction site, according to the organization’s website. Wanting to secure more volunteers for the project, Carter and his wife returned to the site with dozens of people and helped renovate an apartment building.
So began the first Carter Work Project, which is now a weeklong annual tradition.
To date, the Carters have joined more than 103,000 volunteers across 14 different countries to repair and build thousands of homes, according to Habitat for Humanity.
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English to persian translater at Shahab stores
2wIf Putin used nuclear weapons, which he has periodically threatened to do, Russians would become the pariahs of the twenty-first century, replacing the Nazis of the last century. Like the Germans before them, Russians also support wars of territorial conquest. After the Soviet Union’s export of its economic model impoverished so much of the world (itself included), nuking a neighbor would cement Russia’s status as the world’s most regressive country, and its people as the world’s most brutal. The negative strategic effects for Russia and Russians would last for generations — just ask the Germans Mr.Paine: 1st-Do you think nuclear threatening is a children's game ?.I don't think you don't know doomsday Cloack 90 s to midnight in comparison to 1991 's 19 minutes!! 2nd-Do you think by what Israel did in the last 14 months in Gaza, Russia's atrocities could be compared?! 3rd-As a human I don't agree with non of these atrocities which play with lives of innocent people.
S.C.M. Paine's article I find particularly insightful and consistent with some of my thinking regarding developments.