Will Kamala Harris shake up a race with global implications?

How much things can change in US politics. 

The mood at the Republican National Convention last week was one of euphoria and victory, with Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt and breathing more life into his campaign by picking J.D. Vance as his running mate. A Trump 2 presidency seemed all but certain.

Yet this week, with US president Joe Biden not only stepping aside but also decisively throwing his weight behind his vice-president Kamala Harris, the Democrats now have the chance to beat back the tide. Our live coverage captures this sense of optimism.

The Democrats have a real shot. Many polls show Harris polls better than other Democrat alternatives and even than Joe Biden in some states. 

It could be close. Following the assassination attempt on Trump, a CBS/YouGov poll carried out from Jul 16 to 18 shows 51 per cent of voters picked Trump compared to 48 per cent choosing Ms Harris. A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll that same week showed both tied at 44 per cent. Ms Harris leads among black voters and independents.

Polls are a snapshot and cannot capture the future effects of four months of campaigning. But the Democrats have outperformed expectations before, in arresting a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections. 

They had mobilised support from moderates, women and youth voters after the Supreme Court ruling over abortion and the rise of a few extreme Republican candidates. Putting a woman at the top of the ticket creates an opening for abortion to be the conversation, instead of immigration.. 

For now, how quickly the other Democratic contenders in the race coalesce around Ms Harris could shape confidence in the ticket and sway middle ground voters. At least three who were often cited as possible alternatives have given Ms Harris the thumbs up – California governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro and Transport Secretary Pete Buttegieg. But the party elders – including Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama stopped short of backing her, preferring an open approach instead of anointing a successor.

The bottom line? Forming a clear consensus before the Democratic National Convention in August is ideal, to avoid a rowdy and divisive internal fight for the top of the ticket. This race is now for the Democrats to lose.

Follow The Straits Times as we cover this US election and its global implications. Meanwhile, enjoy my picks of the week to get yours started.

Cheers,

Suling Lin, Senior columnist

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