Labour conference look ahead - A vision needed for electoral success

Labour meets next week in unfamiliar circumstances. Sir Keir Starmer’s party is being talked about as a government in waiting by many. There will be excitement in the Liverpool air and fresh momentum thanks to this morning’s crushing by-election victory over the SNP in Scotland. Hopes for a reversal in fortune north of the border have been raised, which will be crucial in the next general election, if Labour is to win an outright majority.

This year the Labour Leader faces a familiar problem and a new challenge. He needs to explain what Labour stands for as a government while the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak tries to become the change candidate voters need.

Labour has enjoyed poll leads of 15 to 20 points since the disastrous Liz Truss government. Despite inevitable talk of a Conservative collapse, Sir Keir and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves have frustrated some of the party faithful. Cautious moves and spending restraint are said to lack the ambition needed to win over voters that wish to reject the last 13 years of government.

However, in Liverpool we should expect a Labour Party that speaks with confidence. Seasoned centrist politicians and media performers have been brought into the front ranks. The image will be one of unity in contrast to some Conservative factions seen in Manchester.

The Leader’s inner circle is desperate to avoid mistakes and haunting by ghosts of elections past. This is why we have seen delays on the Green Prosperity Fund and less than full-throated support for public service wage rises. Labour does not want to make unfunded pledges. Opening this flank would allow the Conservatives to frame the Party in its traditional ‘tax and spend’ image.

This begs the question, how can Labour deliver transformative investment in public services and infrastructure without significant borrowing or new taxes? Strategists know there are few popular sources of additional income. The decision to row back on HS2 is one such political trap set by the Government which Labour is determined not to fall into. Despite pressure from northern city leaders, Starmer has said he will not reinstate the project.

Competence alone will not win a majority. It could confine Labour to defeat or a messy coalition government. This is why, despite less fiscal room for bold policy moves, Starmer and his Shadow Cabinet must use the conference next week to explain their vision for Britain and how the Party shares voters’ values.

There is a long way to go before the next election. If Labour is to build on recent momentum and win, it needs to demonstrate a different and compelling view of Britain. That starts next week.