LET THE REAL TRUMP COME OUT

President Trump, the President of the US for a second time understands clearly one thing :

In our times the winning votes are at the bottom of the social pyramid.

This is what the Roman Patricians had not understood until Caesar taught it to them.

This is what the French Aristocracy did not understand until 1789 taught it to them.

And the list goes on.

This is what Trump taught the Democrats .

Herein is the anomaly. While the Democrats are supposed to represent the less privileged Americans, they were voted by the educated classes , while Trump , in true Clodion manner, he , a billionaire , persuaded the plebeians that he was representing them and their interests.

We live in times that attention spans are very short ,that the plebeians have anger and real power which they bestow at their pleasure and, for any group of interest to succeed, must attract them with what they want to hear.

Trump managed to win also because he always stood up again after a hit and he received many. Combining cunning with rapaciousness he won .

The question of what Trump will do now is mostly answered by his actions.

“A man’s destiny is his character” said the Ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus and this is also valid for Trump.

Trump is primarily a narcissist, a wily transactional and a super salesman.

Trump is a genuine product of America, and will give priority to the internal issues of the US.

The first thing that Trump knows is that he has a fight ahead of him with the American Deep State. This is why in his selection of the Governing team his first criterion is that of absolute loyalty.

He will address immediately the much publicized migration issue. There are some low hanging fruits there for Trump to collect easily and fast. The issue is too complex for a satisfactory solution but Trump knows how to appear working to solve it.

Trump is careful with the Economy of the US. His choice for Treasury Secretary proves it. He will likely increase the Government debt.

Energy is where Trump will roll back the Green Energy momentum of the Biden Presidency.

Oil will again be king in the American Energy spectrum. That will not stop Green Energy investments. It will slow them down but a look at Green Energy’s growth in Texas is enough to show the future.

His tariffs Policy will be focused primarily on the easier targets of Mexico and Canada and will be the subject of stiff negotiations with them and particularly with China.

There will be a lot of tariff trading and tariff design before tariff application.

In Foreign Policy Trump already is on the top of the calculations of European and Middle Eastern combatants as well as their neighboring countries.

What must be understood is that Trump is not an Ideology but a Transaction driven President .

He will opt for a peaceful solution even if this is against prevailing dogma.

In Ukraine he will not solve the issue in 24 hours as promised but he will try his best to freeze it within 2025 ignoring any American and particularly European objections. He understood how much Afghanistan’s exit cost Biden and he will avoid being smeared with a similar situation in Ukraine and will pass the onus to the Ukrainian administration which already gives indications of panic. Europe is in tatters Politically and Economically and they cannot expect much help from it.

The metastasis of the crisis that hit Syria, aligns with the Strategic aim of the US to get Russia out of the Med and, in Georgia in the Black Seas, adds to the US bargaining power with Russia .

However, Russia has already made very clear ,through big military maneuvers in the Med ,that it will not abandon its Syrian Bases without a fight.

Those are the ”gifts” that Biden is bequeathing to Trump.

His more complicated problem is that of the Middle East.

The main reason is that the US is not as strong in the Middle East as it was.

Other players ,particularly China and to a lesser extent Russia, are now significantly involved, but, most of all, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have developed a very important Political and Diplomatic status in the area and a clout that they did not have in the previous Trump presidency.

These two very important Gulf Arab Countries have normalized to a certain extent their relations with Iran, have developed a mutually beneficial relationship with China and are on good terms with Russia. That China preferred to issue a loan bond of 2 billion dollars in Saudi Arabia instead of the US shows clearly the Political shift.

They are not as pressed to conclude the Abraham Accords.

Trump ,while definitely pro Israel, will not be able to force any solution that does not have the full support of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

He can and possibly will increase the violence towards Iran.

In any case the stronger those two Countries are the better it is for all concerned.

This means that a solution to the Palestinian problem must be found ,now that so many States in the World declared pro Palestine and the population of the Arab States is strongly for it.

This will be the thorniest issue for a solution to be found and it will certainly cannot be achieved under a Netanyahu Government.

Iran has also softened its approach to its fight against Israel ,having understood that in a military confrontation Israel has by far the upper hand and significant regional and Western support.

Events in Georgia , the Black Sea Country, are leading to a revolution or to a Russian invasion and possibly both. If any of the two happens it will be more difficult for Putin than for Trump.

His main problem will be of course China. This is insoluble . Both Countries have now fallen in the Thucydidean trap and only one can come out the winner.

The best Policy is the one that will delay the confrontation for as long as possible. This can be achieved only if both Countries accept it.

The greatest bet for this Trump Presidency is Elon Musk.

It is not the Money ,World Communication and Influence ,the Brave New World A.I. and Tech mastery of Elon and his peers. All that is very welcome for the Trump Presidency.

There is something much more important.

Elon can offer Trump, the Great Megalomaniac, something that will shine in the annals of History.

Elon promises to send a man to Mars during the Trump Presidency.

Trump will pass into History as the President who landed an American on Mars. Everything else will be forgiven and forgotten.

If the two great narcissists don’t fall out before , this will be the Jewel in the Crown of Trump.

Dr. Dimitrios-Vasileios KOKKINOS