The Lindy effect

The Lindy Effect is a fascinating idea that suggests if something has been successful for a long time, its success is likely to continue for just as long. Nassim Taleb explains it best in his book Antifragile: "If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But … if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print for another fifty years." In essence, every year that something endures without disappearing extends its life expectancy.

This concept is a powerful metaphor, especially in the world of investments. The Lindy Effect suggests that it’s wiser to place your bets on things that have stood the test of time. For example, a business that has been around for decades is more likely to thrive for many years to come. Investing in such a business often feels safer than gambling on a startup. While startups may have potential, they lack the proven resilience and stability of seasoned companies.

The Lindy Effect also connects beautifully to the principle of compounding—the idea that returns grow exponentially with time. Just as time amplifies the power of compounding, it also strengthens the foundation of anything that lasts. Established businesses, long-standing industries, and time-tested strategies often possess a durability that newer ventures simply haven’t had the chance to develop.

For anyone building something meaningful, the Lindy Effect is a beacon of hope. However tough the journey might feel, don’t give up. The longer you stay in the game, the higher your chances of success. Each year you persist is more than just survival—it’s an investment in your future, increasing the odds that you’ll thrive for many years ahead.

This principle also teaches us to value resilience over novelty and to trust what’s proven rather than what’s flashy. It’s why lasting friendships, enduring businesses, and timeless habits hold such immense power. Whether you’re investing, creating, or simply trying to stay afloat, remember this: time isn’t just a measure—it’s your greatest ally.

Stick with what matters. Over time, your persistence will compound, and the results will be extraordinary. Trust in longevity, because staying in the game is often the most profound kind of success.