Looking Back on the Big Policy Stories of 2024

Looking Back on the Big Policy Stories of 2024

By Jason Matheny

With a new year set to bring a new administration to Washington, RAND holds steadfast to the vital mission that's been our guiding light for more than 75 years: We improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis.

Our work is grounded in the facts, free from partisan or commercial pressures, and pursued in the public interest. While politics commanded the public's attention this year, RAND remained focused on policy.

Before we turn the page on 2024, I'm reflecting on the many ways RAND is helping leaders of all stripes better understand and address humanity's greatest challenges. Here are some of the areas where RAND made essential contributions in 2024, many of which we intend to build on in the coming year.


Navigating Competition with China

Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brasilia, Brazil, November 20, 2024, photo by Adriano Machado/Reuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping in Brasilia, Brazil, November 20, 2024. Photo by Adriano Machado/Reuters

How should the United States manage its relationship with China so the two superpowers can compete without catastrophe? As 2025 approaches, this remains one of the most critical questions facing Washington, Beijing, and the world.

RAND experts contributed to this conversation in countless ways over the past year. They published studies on how China views the societal traits that provide a competitive edge, how to define success and failure and, crucially, how America can address challenges that may impede its progress.

Artificial intelligence (AI) figured prominently into some of RAND's recent research on China. Several studies explored how Beijing could use AI to supercharge its social media and shape the future of information warfare. Our scholars also examined what China's progress in science and technology might mean for its military capabilities.

RAND experts added to our body of work exploring the possibility of a U.S.-China clash over Taiwan. Their analyses stressed the importance of establishing a theory of victory for this scenario. They also drew lessons from history that could help avoid the risk of catastrophic escalation. Researchers examined how private-sector innovation could help if China does decide to invade Taiwan, the potentially pivotal role of low-cost drones in a conflict, considerations for “middle power” countries and U.S. Indo-Pacific allies, and what we know about China's logistics and maintenance capabilities.

RAND experts also sought to better understand the effects of recent U.S. economic policies toward China, Beijing's growing risk tolerance in outer space, and how lower-level dialogues could help stabilize the relationship.

U.S.-China competition is intensifying, and the stakes couldn't be higher. Decisionmakers will need RAND research and analysis in the months and years ahead. We'll continue to make this topic a priority, shedding light on the U.S.-China relationship from every angle.


Supporting Veterans, Military Families, and Caregivers

A woman pushing an older man in a wheelchair. Photo by Westend61 GmbH/Alamy Stock Photo
Photo by Westend61 GmbH/Alamy Stock Photo

Americans have a special obligation to those who've served their country, as well as military and veteran families and those who care for U.S. service members and veterans who need support. Recent RAND studies continued our long tradition of identifying recommendations for supporting these groups.

RAND research revealed that more than 14 million Americans are “hidden heroes” who provide daily care to wounded, ill, or injured service members or veterans. Our experts also worked to close the evidence gap in terms of what we know about veteran families.

We sought to help improve job outcomes for veterans who are shifting from military to civilian employment by examining the landscape of federal and nonprofit programs that help with this often difficult transition.

RAND experts identified lessons for supporting veterans who were exposed to environmental hazards and published important findings on veterans' respiratory health. They also considered how working conditions in civilian jobs can affect veteran health and well-being.

Other new publications in 2024 shed light on challenges facing veteran single parents, LGBTQ+ veterans, and those with Other Than Honorable discharges. RAND research also revealed what Americans think about veterans and military service. (One finding that shouldn't be surprising: Public perceptions of those who serve are overwhelmingly positive.)


Spotlighting the State of Education

A teacher and a student in the school library working on school work. Photo by SDI Productions/Getty Images
Photo by SDI Productions/Getty Images

Nearly five years since the pandemic first upended education in the United States, RAND researchers continue to provide policymakers with on-the-ground insights into America's classrooms.

Teachers matter, and the profession suffered during the pandemic. Evidence shows that they're still feeling stressed and underpaid. But there are steps that could help improve teacher retention, a crucial issue as school districts continue to address pandemic-era learning loss.

Many children are still struggling, too. RAND reports have highlighted the alarming prevalence of chronic absenteeism among American students. We also documented the underutilization of summer learning programs, a common way that school districts have tried to help students catch up academically.

RAND added to a growing body of work on safety at schools and online. We published new studies on how to respond to social media threats against schools and how teachers feel about school safety and lockdown drills. RAND education researchers also created a tool to help stop the spread of false information during voting season.

Political polarization and AI are changing schools. RAND studies showed that many teachers avoid charged topics, such as race or gender, because of perceived and actual limitations on classroom discussions. By contrast, very few teachers regularly use AI for their work, even though other published research shows that students widely do so.

Our survey panels of educators have produced some of our most high-impact work. Now we're building a youth panel and doubling the size of our adult panel to triangulate information about education and work. We expect that elevating students' and parents' voices in this way will yield powerful insights for educators and policymakers.


Studying the Rise of Artificial Intelligence

AI images on bars with a yellow background. Image by Florence Lo/Reuters; design by Haley Okuley/RAND

RAND continues to build a deep bench of researchers who study applications of AI in a range of areas to better understand the upsides of the technology and how to mitigate its risks.

In 2024, RAND studied public perceptions on government use of AI, helping the Department of Homeland Security position itself as a federal leader in operationalizing AI to fulfill its mission. And dozens of RAND experts joined forces to develop a guide for U.S. civilian and military leaders who want to strengthen the AI workforce.

A new series of RAND primers can help leaders in the United States and Europe think through key issues in AI governance, while a more in-depth RAND report seeks to map the landscape of tools for trustworthy AI on both sides of the Atlantic. Experts also explored whether governance of past technologies might offer lessons for the AI era.

RAND researchers created a playbook for securing AI model weights that has already helped shape frameworks at several leading AI labs. Other teams conducted studies that demonstrated the power of red-teaming AI and explored the risks and opportunities that could emerge when machine learning meets gene editing.

We also published research on the nexus of AI and critical infrastructure, how deepfakes and attacks on AI could present new threats to the U.S. financial system, and options to prevent the technology from undermining information integrity.

Finally, a popular RAND study identified five reasons why so many AI projects fail in an effort to help leaders avoid common pitfalls.


Analyzing Russia's War in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends at the Akorda presidential residence in Astana, Kazakhstan, November 27, 2024. Photo by Mikhail Tereschenko/Pool via Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends at the Akorda presidential residence in Astana, Kazakhstan, November 27, 2024. Photo by Mikhail Tereschenko/Pool via Reuters

This year marked a decade since Russia annexed Crimea and more than 1,000 days since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. RAND research continued to examine the conflict from every angle and to look ahead to what might happen next.

RAND experts explored Moscow's failure to articulate a coherent objective about its war and highlighted the cruelty with which Russia treats its military personnel.

Researchers also identified the economic costs of the conflict to Russia and examined how Russia uses gold in wartime to prop up its economy and evade sanctions.

New research sought to draw lessons from Ukrainian resistance to Russia. And past RAND analysis on the “will to fight” continued to inform U.S. security assistance and training efforts to support Ukraine.

Looking ahead, RAND research outlined how best to plan for and execute a successful Ukrainian recovery. Our experts also explored what postwar U.S. policy toward Russia might look like and what Washington might do in the realm of arms control now that the New START Treaty has effectively collapsed.


Highlighting Health Care Solutions

White health care icons on a cyan digital background. Image by Panuwat Sikham/Getty Images
Image by Panuwat Sikham/Getty Images

RAND research in 2024 continued to identify novel and effective ways to help make communities throughout the world healthier and improve people's lives.

Experts provided more insight into the drug overdose crisis in the United States. One high-profile RAND study found that more than 40 percent of Americans know someone who has died from an overdose. The U.S. Secretary of State cited this harrowing finding in remarks to the United Nations Commission on Narcotic Drugs.

RAND research revealed several ways to better address the crisis. One study showed that patients who receive higher doses of the medication buprenorphine went longer without ending up in the hospital or the ER. This led the American Medical Association to urge providers to update their policies. Another study highlighted how outpatient community mental health facilities could play a bigger role in treatment for people with opioid use disorders. Experts explored how simple “nudges” could reduce overprescribing of opioids by surgeons. And researchers explored what Europe can learn from America's experience with illegal synthetic opioids—and how it can prevent a similar crisis.

Mental health was another focus for our researchers in 2024. One RAND team continued its work to help the new Suicide and Crisis Lifeline, work together more seamlessly. Another team conducted a “secret shopper” study to determine the availability of telehealth at mental health clinics, finding significant geographic differences. RAND researchers also found that a novel program aimed at treating depression in the small sub-Saharan nation of Malawi helped improve people's lives in a number of areas—and in a cost-effective way.

In another study about an intervention that might have a huge return on investment, RAND research found that addressing underprescription of oral rehydration salts in India could reduce child mortality from diarrhea.

Finally, RAND continued its influential study of high prescription drug prices in the United States. Our new estimates and insights are informing policies to address rising drug spending and the financial impacts of prescription drugs on American consumers.


Tracking the Conflict in the Middle East

Topographic map of the Middle East, image by FrankRamspott/Getty Images
Image by FrankRamspott/Getty Images


Fears that the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and Israel's military response in Gaza could spiral into a regional conflict became reality in 2024.

As the situation in the Middle East evolved, RAND experts provided timely insights on the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, attacks by the Houthis on commercial ships in the Red Sea, failures to learn lessons from the “war on terror” and, just last week, insights on the sudden fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Earlier RAND research on Israel's previous wars in Gaza continued to provide important context for the situation there today. Experts also provided perspective on the White House's strategy for countering antisemitism.

Beyond continuing to monitor the conflict in 2025, RAND experts plan to publish new research soon on how to improve conditions in the Middle East and seek pathways to a durable, long-term peace.


Informing Decisions on Climate Change and Disasters

A man walks in a flooded street a day after Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Batabano, Cuba, November 7, 2024. Photo by Norlys Perez/Reuters
A man walks in a flooded street a day after Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Batabano, Cuba, November 7, 2024. Photo by Norlys Perez/Reuters

Climate change and how policymakers respond to it will have a profound impact on humanity. RAND continued to study this challenge across a range of domains in 2024.

RAND experts worked to deepen understanding about how climate change will affect conflict and U.S. military operations, conducting climate change wargames and identifying opportunities for future research.

Our researchers worked with the U.S. government to plan for how climate change could threaten “critical functions” like supplying water and electricity or providing medical care. RAND analysis is also helping the Federal Emergency Management Agency make its grants more accessible and equitable and guiding efforts by state and local governments to improve financial resilience to natural disasters.

Other RAND studies found that more and more people around the world are being affected by tropical cyclones and revealed that climate change could affect the prevalence of chronic disease and the demand for drugs needed to treat them.

As we enter a new year, RAND experts are working together to reimagine the next era of climate policy research.


Addressing Homelessness and Housing Challenges

A person experiencing homelessness sleeps unsheltered on the Walk of Fame in Hollywood, California, February 6, 2020. Photo by Mike Blake/Reuters
A person experiencing homelessness sleeps unsheltered on the Walk of Fame in Hollywood, California, February 6, 2020. Photo by Mike Blake/Reuters

RAND experts continued their work on housing instability and affordability in 2024. They published new research on the trade-offs of coupling affordable housing production and project labor agreements, and they explained how the Los Angeles rental market could get even worse. Earlier RAND research on housing affordability continued to inform efforts in New York City, too.

RAND experts also warned that construction apprenticeships are likely to fail to meet projected workforce needs, discussed opposition to housing development, and explained why “crime-free” housing policies don't work.

Our experts continued to track unsheltered homelessness in three Los Angeles neighborhoods known for high concentrations of unhoused populations. They also discussed a concerning rise in “rough sleeping” and studied links between foster care and housing instability among youth.

Finally, earlier research warning about low pay among workers who help people experiencing homelessness had a positive impact, with the Los Angeles City Council citing RAND in a motion to address these deficiencies.


Jason Matheny is president and chief executive officer of RAND.

This originally appeared on rand.org on December 17, 2024.

By embedding comprehensive security measures into AI policy and governance frameworks, we can ensure that the deployment of AI in critical infrastructure enhances its resilience, safety, and reliability. Effective policies will allow societies to harness the transformative potential of AI while minimizing its risks, particularly in systems where failure could have wide-reaching consequences for public safety, economic stability, and national security.

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