Looking into the Black Friday 2021 Data Changes and Emerging Patterns

Looking into the Black Friday 2021 shopping data and the shift in consumer patterns this holiday season.

Supply chain shortages and the shipping crisis might have driven consumers to stock up on gifts early on in case they couldn’t be shipped in time. This could be just one cause of the early data we have on the Black Friday 2021 sales. Or are we just fed up with consumerism? Let’s take a closer look.

Black Friday 2021 Shopping Data

According to Adobe Analytics data, the online Thanksgiving sales were about the same as a year ago. However, the Black Friday shopping was down from 2020. Not by much, but it wasn’t the same blockbuster retailer we are used to.

This data comes from more than 1 trillion US online visits recorded by Adobe. The total online spending on Black Friday was $8.9 billion, which is just shy of the $9 billion mark registered in 2020. The Thanksgiving shopping came in flat YoY at$5.1 billion.

Historically, it is the first time where both days did not see an increase in online shopping year-over-year.

The Cyber Week (from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday) has produced a total of $33.9 billion in online spending. That means it’s down 1.4% YoY as well.

The analysts believe that people have become more prudent, flexible and strategic in how they shop for gifts. They are more analytical in how they search for the best deals. They weren’t waiting for the big Black Friday day like before. Instead, consumers made the most of the October offers they could find.

However, there’s an even more interesting switch in the Black Friday shopping data this year? Online shopping figures were not great, even below last year. However, in-store shopping showed some gains from 2020. However, they failed to reach the pre-pandemic levels. In fact, compared to 2019, the retail stores’ traffic on Black Friday dropped 28.3%.

Nevertheless, it seems that people are back at bricks-and-mortars. A pandemic-ridden habit of stocking up on household supplies seems to have dominated the Thanksgiving shopping as well.

What is more, Adobe data shows that consumers are more than twice as likely to stumble across an out-of-stock product today than they were before the pandemic. So, no more Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). Now, there’s Fear of Out of Stock.

Flexible retailers offering consumers more pickup options seem to benefit from this situation. The way we shop this year resembles the way we work. It involves a mix of in-person and online engagement.

Moreover, we predict that the monetary stress and uncertainty are also getting on people’s nerves. Consumers grow to value the freedom of shopping when it’s most convenient for them, not when retailers announce the biggest discounts.

Weaker Discounts

The discounts this year have been far from those from the past years. For example, discounts for TVs were -13% compared to -18% last year. The apparel discounts were at -18% vs -20% the previous year. Sporting goods were at -8% discount vs -20% the previous year. These “poor” discounts are undoubtedly influenced by the rising shipping costs and the numerous supply chain disruptions we’ve witnessed this year.

Read more: The Perfect Supply Chain Storm

Data Insights from Adobe Analysis on Black Friday 2021

• Large retailers have been selling 22% more than small retailers since October
• Since November 26th, there’s been an alarming surge in out-of-stock messages in sectors such as appliances and electronics, housekeeping supplies, Home& Garden
• This holiday shopping season, the top selling product categories include toys, books, video games, appliances, and personal care products. The apparel shopping boost is not relevant here as it is driven by cold weather items purchases
• The biggest discounts in this holiday shopping season are for appliances and overall Electronics. Nevertheless, the discounts are not as good as last year (-10% vs -17% for appliances; -10% vs -21% for electronics)
• Avoiding shipping delays and opting for contactless pickup seems to be a growing trend. This means consumers are focusing on closer-to-home brands.

Black Friday 2021: Main Conclusions

All in all, this Black Friday has shown mixed performances with many unique obstacles on its way.

We’ve had a generalised labour shortage, widespread supply chain disruptions, and a new COVID-19 variant that sent the world from one shock into another.

Although retailers have recorded some feeble gains in areas such as in-store traffic, overall data shows increased signs of struggle and uncertainty from both retailers and consumers.

The shopping patterns have shifted. Consumers are more analytical and wary in how they shop. They started the holiday season shopping early. This means they’ve been following up closely on the global supply chain shortages and worries.

It seems consumers have ditched the proverbial Black Friday and are tackling the holiday shopping season more strategically.

Furthermore, consumers fear shipping delays and would rather browse through the brick-and-mortar shop than wait for their products to arrive at the door. Besides, the frustration level is lower than seeing out-of-stock products online.

Looking on the bright side, ordering a T-shirt online results in a four-time higher carbon print than buying it in a physical store. So, win-win?

Anyways, leaving jokes aside, the main star of this Holiday Shopping Season is the consumer. Worried about the inflation, shipping crisis, supply chain disruptions, the consumer has decided to shift its buying patterns. He started shopping earlier and became somewhat more analytical in his search for holiday presents. Is this a shift in consumerism as well? Maybe we have to wait a bit more for that.

Read more about the “Perfect” Shipping Crisis

What you do as a manufacturer or retailer is analyse this data closely and compare it with the data coming from inside your supply chain. ‘Tis the time to be aware and on your toes to how your supply chain is acting up in these times of change. Do you have the visibility it takes?