Lovecraft, Lethargy, & Loss and Damage: A COP27 Reflection

"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents. We lie on a placid island of ignorance in the midst of a black sea of infinity, and it was not meant that we should voyage far. The sciences, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation of flee from the deadly light into the peace and safety of a new dark age" -H.P. Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu

HP Lovecraft is the father of the "cosmicism" sub-genre of horror literature that explores humanity's existential helplessness against the incomprehensible cosmos-at-large. Through his work, he forces us to confront both our primal fear of the unknown, and more discomfortingly, a possibility that we are totally at the mercy of indifferent forces beyond our control. The terror derives from the realisation that our human laws, motivations, interests, morality and feelings have no validity or significance against the uncaring and mechanical forces of nature. There are limits to what we can do in response to such force.

For me, we are living in a Lovecraftian epic where ancient, sleeping alien Gods are replaced with the consequences of an overheating planet and our limited ability to comprehend and act. A hurricane or extreme rainfall is indifferent to the countries responsible for historical emissions. Drought afflicts the most vulnerable without consideration of justice. And the lag between emissions and temperature assures us that we will still face a measure of consequence even if all emissions were to magically stop completely tomorrow. Still, to give developing countries and Small Island Developing States the best chance for a liveable future, the IPCC estimates that global emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 to give us a chance of keeping planetary heating below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. If all our Nationally Determined Contributions - the emission reduction promises of each country - were to be implemented perfectly, we are still on track to warm the earth by 2.6C by 2100.

To keep 1.5 Alive, we must achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, and this, according to the International Energy Agency, means investing USD 4 trillion dollars annually into renewable energy until 2030, and a further USD 4-6 trillion per year towards low-carbon development globally. The UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance estimates that developing countries would require USD 5.8 - 5.9 trillion until 2030 to address their climate adaptation plans, NDC implementation and sovereign indebtedness. The UN-backed Independent High-level Expert Group on Climate Finance notes that over the past 20 years, climate impacts have incurred losses and damages totalling 20% of the GDP for the 20 most vulnerable countries, and that financing future loss and damage can be conservatively estimated to be USD 200 - 400 billion annually for developing countries.

The sheer magnitude to the financing required to abate the almost incomprehensive devastation ahead rivals the size and power of Cthulhu itself. It is understandable that each of us feel overwhelming anxiety, depression, or dread while standing in the shadow of the mountain that lies ahead. Eco-anxiety and climate grief among those under 25 years of age is real, and extensive. In The Call of Cthulhu, the narrator writes, "I shall never sleep calmly again when I think of the horrors that lurk ceaselessly behind the life in time and space...", and the entire Zoomer generation upon thinking of their climate-ravaged future replied, "Same".

Through a lens of climate grief, governments and corporations can seem equally Lovecraftian; lethargic super entities with incredible power to deliver change if it were aroused a la Azathoth. Indeed, governments are large, complex, and slow-moving because they carry the weight of representing the diverse interests of all within their plural society. Disenchantment to the climate crisis often befalls those who pin their hopes to companies and Ministries - especially when observing an intergovernmental process such as the UNFCCC Conference of Parties. We hope for bold actions and transformative change from institutions that can at best - and with great sacrifice - only deliver consensus-based incremental change.

As individuals we must actively build our resilience against the mental impacts of the climate crisis. It is easy to give into resigned helplessness and brand the COP as 'greenwashing' because its action may seem to some too small and too late. It is harder, but necessary, for us to foster climate optimism and appreciate the progress made by those entrenched in the fight to keep 1.5 alive. The Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health Centre for Climate, Health and the Global Environment notes that, "Climate optimism isn’t about denying what we can see with our own eyes, or ignoring our grief for what we’ve lost. It’s understanding that we know how to prevent things from getting worse and that we’re making progress." It is through this lens that I read the Sharm El-Sheik Implementation Plan and applaud the landmark accomplishment of our climate negotiators.

The Genesis of loss and damage can be traced back to 1991 when the Association of Small Island Developing States (AOSIS) has lobbied to have an international mechanism to compensate countries affected by sea-level rise. Advocacy and incremental action persisted for decades until it was firmly installed as a thematic pillar under Article 8 of the Paris Agreement. After consensus on financing loss and damage was not achieved at COP26, attention was placed on COP27 to deliver. As the event closed on the 18th of November 2022, there was still no resolution and so negotiators extended their stay an additional 48 hours, working well into the night with little food or sleep.

This would soon change as Governments took the ground-breaking decision to establish new funding arrangements, as well as a dedicated fund, to assist developing countries in responding to loss and damage. A 31-year mission led by small islands has found success. Governments also agreed to establish a ‘transitional committee’ to make recommendations on how to operationalize both the new funding arrangements and the fund at COP28 next year. The first meeting of the transitional committee is expected to take place before the end of March 2023.

The COP also adopted the institutional arrangements for operationalizing the "Santiago Network for averting, minimizing and addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change" towards catalysing technical assistance to those who most need it. The host of the Santiago Network Secretariat will be determined in 2023.

It appears as though our governments are not lethargic after all.

I congratulate our negotiators on their success, and for persevering in the face on tremendous challenge and existential dread. Climate change is an imposing threat that will inevitably overwhelm the adaptation capabilities of small islands and developing countries. The outcomes of COP 27 can be seen as a tremendous win because it not only acknowledges this reality, but firmly establishes a mechanism for building financial and technical capacity among the most vulnerable. The results have left me with renewed optimism to keep the fight going.

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Ryan Assiu is a Sustainable Development and Climate Change Specialist by qualification, Program Coordinator by experience, and Educator by passion. He is on a journey to discover his authentic professional identity which has seen him prepare technical documents and policies for companies, CSOs and governments throughout the Caribbean. His writings focus on sharing his experiences and knowledge on a wide range of environmental topics relevant to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as his home country of Trinidad and Tobago. Follow him on LinkedIn @ Ryan Assiu | LinkedIn