The Macro Dragon: WAR – The Insanity… Tactical Nukes & Tail-Risks… Time Decay For The Industrial Complex, NATO, Ukraine & Israel 💥💣🪖

War at its core, is insanity.

The fact that there are no other pathways outside of conflicts (which is almost categorically rarely the case), kicks up our Sapiens survivals instincts that can have devastating consequences. Generally speaking war is net-net wealth destructive on an economic level - unless you are part of the industrial war complex - as well as shattering to the civilians that are caught in it.

War is an expression of humanity's greatest contradiction: our ability to achieve monumental greatness is only matched — if not surpassed — only by our penchant for profound destruction. 🌍💥 It serves as an unrelenting reminder of how unevolved we are as a species acting out the same scripts over & over again — except with new technologies & ever more destructive capabilities. 🧨

We don't just wipe out entire ecosystems🌲— no, we go a step further & do it to ourselves. Whether it’s waving a flag invoking religious justification, tribalism, belief system "XYZ" or declaring the sanctity of some sovereign nation, the endgame is almost always the same: an “us versus them” mentality. 🤦♂️

This brings us back to the age-old paradox — conflict either preserves power or redistributes it. As a pseudonymous cousin of House Ascent, IamDeepState likes to point out that real power should never have to be used, as power is a fleeting shadow. If possible, the perception as well as possible use of one's power, should be the default state wherever possible - as the expression of one's power, could lead to 2nd & 3rd order consequences that revert back to undermining one's power base.

All philosophical musings & Machiavelli-isms aside, the real-world temperature is rising... 🌡️

As the countdown to the U.S. elections looms large, it’s no coincidence that Ukraine & Israel are waging their conflicts with newfound intensity. This is not just because the only clarity about who is controlling the White House, is that it has not been Biden for a long time... & it sure as hell ain't the Wallpaper Kamala. So whilst the US is occupied with its domestic agenda & the current euphoric party within which its industrial complex finds itself with the current administration is likely to be milked well into the future.

War & politics are inextricably linked, & one can't help but suspect that without the stakes of U.S. taxpayer dollars & defense contracts on the line, the battlefields would be much quieter. 💸🛢️

If KVP was a hawk (pro-conflict) sitting in the war rooms of Ukraine or Israel, he would be nervous about the potential for a Trump resurgence in the White House. A future Trump presidency might not offer the same limitless wallet of military aid (read American taxpayer monies) or the same fervor in the defense of so-called allies. No one likes to say it, but war is political, & when leadership changes hands, so do the potential priorities of military alliances, which in some cases has implications to broader world order (which by definition is skewed to who's creating that order - i.e. Pax-Americana).

The Strange Bedfellows Of War

The paradox of war lies in its ability to unite the unlikeliest of allies. 🤝 As insane as it sounds, there's never been more alignment between the leadership of Hamas, Israel, & Iran. Each of the leaders of these groups, have sworn to devastating the other side in one form or another📜, yet they share one undeniable truth: they all need conflict to maintain their status & hold.

Without war, they lose their leverage + their power + their ability to rally their respective support to their causes, as well as a myriad of other perks that they, as well as their cabals likely get.

Power thrives on chaos 🌀 (lets hope the US election results will be clean & peaceful - so regardless of whether its a Harris or Trump victory, you want a resounding victory... not a photo finish). History shows us that when domestic troubles mount - which is often defined as the elite incumbents holding onto power & influence - the elite leaders often look abroad for a distraction.

Nationalism + patriotism + the “enemy” are rallied to the fore, & anyone who disagrees is obviously a traitor, a non-patriot. This is where the paradox becomes farcical — true patriots should always question the governance of their nation. 🧐They should be open to challenging the power, to hold it accountable, like shedding light into the dark corners of a room, rather than blindly following it. 🚫"Us good, them bad".

That brings us to a quote 💭 from The American President, a scene where President Andrew Shepherd, played by Michael Douglas, delivers a powerful statement on the essence of free speech & freedom itself. Which feels like a lifetime away to what we are seeing unfold across the EU, UK & the US - which have long been held as bastions of democracy & freedom.

This concept — acknowledging + defending + celebrating the right to dissent — has been lost in the global zeitgeist 🌪️, replaced by the shallow, polarized rhetoric of today’s digital age which is heavily correlated with populism policies. 🫨

The Immediate Outlook: A Dangerous Peak

As we push into the final quarter of the year, the stakes in some ways have never been higher. 📈 The heat of war is simmering on two major fronts: Europe & the Middle East. 🔥 While KVP may not be as immersed in the Gulf dynamics as he'd like to be – the shifting sands of Israel, Iran, Lebanon with synthetic support of the US — it’s clear that Europe, particularly the Ukraine conflict, is potentially the bigger tinderbox. ⚔️

What’s deeply disturbing is the market’s complete complacency towards the use of tactical nuclear weapons. 💣 If you've never been close to the front lines, you'll feel that war is something that happens to “other people"... its the series or movie you watch on your cozy couch whilst Netflix runs.

It happens to other people, until it doesn't. Europe has not been this close to nuclear fallout since the Cold War. 🥶 Which is not to say, that the probability is anywhere near as high as it was in the cold war... yet, the risk is much higher than anyone’s pricing in, & the battlefield of the future could see nukes delivered by drones, special forces, immigrants or otherwise — you can drop your vintage missile launch simulation that everyone has emended in their head.

The looming question here 🤔 — why hasn’t Russia already crossed that line?

At the end of the day, we have unequivocally had Ukraine (hence NATO + US) forces on Russian land — which Russia has clearly warned and opened their options up to the use of Nuclear weapons. ☢️Is this similar to Obama's defunkt threat to the Assad regime on the potential use of chemical weapons, the "line that should not be crossed"... which Assad & crew literally drove back & forth multiple times with no significant repercussions. Not that KVP is blaming Obi for not getting into yet another "liberation" masquerade that the US is now infamous for.

If KVP had been strategizing for Putin from the start, the play ▶️ would have been crystal clear: pick a remote Ukrainian location, give the world fair warning ⚠️ to clear it out & demonstrate that this is not a drill, by activating a tiny tactical nuke. That would have immediately (high probability) pushed everyone to the negotiating table. The fact that he hasn’t done this is the puzzle 😕… as whatever the attrition is of young Russian men on the frontlines, it’s unacceptable, as well as unsustainable. Don't forget that Russia (under the USSR) lost over 20M men during world war II & that has had a huge implication on its demographics since.

The Puzzle Of Restraint

There are a few possible answers to why Putin hasn't yet expressed the use of a tactical nuke to bring the conflict to a resolution rather than the continued attrition⚡, which Russia can stand a lot longer than Ukraine. 🕰️

First, it could be that he doesn’t have the broad support that many outside observers think. It could also be that Putin himself recognizes the uncharted waters 🌊 such a move would lead to — escalation beyond any sane person’s control. 🙅♂️ Or maybe, & this is the darkest possibility, he isn’t optimizing for an end to the war. Perhaps just like in the Gulf, the conflict is needed for him to continue to hold onto power... as it almost certainly is for his counterpart in Ukraine.

The war machine has momentum, & that momentum serves both internal & external purposes. Tactical restraint can be a strategy in itself. After all, if peace is truly achieved, what happens to the system that war sustains?

That’s the real question💡 — what do the power brokers + war mongers do once the conflict ends?

Random Reflections On The Art Of Destruction & Hopefully Lack Thereof…

From an efficiency & productivity perspective, one can be lead to think that these terrorist groups need to step up their game♟️ — which whilst we, by no means condone nor support acts of violence against innocent civilians, it’s worth noting that this author’s ancestors, the Mau Mau, were once considered terrorists by the occupying British Empire.

This is meant in a tongue in cheek way, as of course 😏, its one thing to be "freedom fighters" targeting the "oppressive regimes" armed forces, & quite another to be targeting its civilians. It’s great that most of these organizations cannot organize themselves — as its likely that 99% of such groups, are really only the classic Sapiens cancerous set-up 🦠 of a few embedded elite, holding onto power + resources + status in the guise of this calling, or that belief system or some other narrative. Haven’t the leadership of Hamas, been famously living large in Qatar whilst their “people” are dropping like flies? This is once again a story as old as time⌛, in that "war is old men sending young men to die".

This is likely why most groups end up being the paragon of strategically ineffective 👎, not to mention they are up against better trained, long-term & better incentivized opponents who have way more resources + experience + resourcefulness 🏆 (Mossad + CIA + other secret bodies of stable sovereigns) — all whilst operating in way more stable environments of their control than the insurgents, be they true revolutionaries or terrorists.

In regards to expressions of guerilla tactics, to KVP its shocking we’ve not seen more use of things such as Drones ✈️ by terrorist groups, i.e. it would take just a wkd to assemble & program a swarm of say 10 groups of 100 drones, to cause mass panic & havoc 🌪️… i.e. they don’t even have to kill anyone… just cause hysteria & fear… with today’s tech… they could run with full autonomy & self-sufficiency — which at the end of the day is what most of these groups are optimizing for. 🚁🔧

We’ve not even gone into how easy it would be to, say, attach image recognition to the drones 🤖, so they now go from mass havoc & hysteria to literally seek & destroy, compact kamikaze flying objects. KVP can see period in the not-too-distant future, where pockets of the world go through stages of outlawing the use of drones… following such an attack… he hopes he is dead wrong on this prediction. 🔮

The lack of a tactical nuke display — even ex Russia — or at the very least, a known tactical nuke display is still incredible in its good fortune that it has not happened yet. 👏 No doubt there have been dozens, perhaps hundreds that have been intercepted, stopped & recovered by the “good guys”.

KVP often thinks about the phrase:

"We are just apes playing with the power of gods… 🦍💥"

It’s incredible that we are still here & thanks to the celestial winds for that.   

Military is like healthcare 🏥, as long as it’s a for-profit industry — there will always be long-term incentives for conflict to run deep & no lasting resolutions to be found. After all, where is the profit in finally getting to the cause of a patient’s illness, when alternatively you can treat them like a bond with 80yrs of monthly payments 💸 going to pharmaceutical companies & the healthcare system (i.e. cashflows).

The history of wars being created to fan the pockets, profits of a select few 🤑… as well as divert attention from things getting tough at home — & in essence strengthen or maintain one’s power 💰 — is a game as old as time. Most recently & famously captured in the excellent movie Vice, which portrays warmonger extraordinaire & energy man, Dick “Shotgun” Chaney.

There is a phenomenal fireside discussion 🔥 on the meta frameworks & trends of power + conflict that we’d encourage everyone to spend some time on… this has got to be a top 8 ✨ in anything the Ascent Research team has come across this year... it's with John Mearsheimer & Jeffrey Sachs. 

There are no easy solutions here from a Sapiens-only standpoint🙎♂️… i.e. nothing is unfortunately going to magically change overnight… we’ve been slaughtering each other 🔪 for millennia… & have been putting entire species & ecosystems to rest for thousands of years.

The only thing around the corner that is going to be a game changer one way, or another will be sentient AI. 🧠 We need godlike intelligence to weigh in, mitigate & protect against who gets to control the power of the gods. We need a potential alpha predator at the top of the food chain that we have occupied, to keep a check on humanity's warmongering.

Sentient AI 👽 is likely really the only true backstop for humanity’s dna coded bug for conflicts with potentially limitless downside. Limitless downside events naturally extends to the rest of this planet for that matter… & that’s assuming THE HIVE is fine with allowing us to live. 🙏

Yet clearly killing any lobbying from those industries (or at the very least, clean public & blockchain immutable disclosure & transparency), as well as making it very clear where structural conflicts of interests arise can be written into law. ⚖️

Simple principles such as if congress sends young American women & men to die overseas, then each congress member must also make sure than their own kids &/or someone from their extended family is 100% getting called overseas in the hot zone. 💀

There is no better alignment of interest & full focus, than skin in the game... & to many people making the decision on war, do not suffer the real consequences of it. This unfortunately will likely only get more severe... after all, if you are sending robots into war, you don't have to answer to the families of your voters... so the friction is less.

AI flown aircraft have already displayed, unequivocal dominance on their Sapein counterparts... its only a matter of a decade or two until the average foot soldier is a relic of the past for the wealthier sovereigns.

-KVP

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