Macro-Trends Mash Up: Everything is Converging

I was speaking to an Innovation Professor at a university and I talked about all the business model changes and how AI was changing things up. He confidently brushed all that away and said that people shouldn’t get caught up with the “hype” and that they need to ignore all these buzzwords and focus on their “core business model.” I told him that this is exactly how incumbents fall out of the market, because they stay focused on what has been working until revenue declines and its too late because someone else figured out how to generate value in a new way that the market prefers. He then fell back into the position that there is just too much going on and we can’t possibly stay on top of it all. As this is my bread and butter, I happily pushed back and said we don’t need to stay on top of it all, but we need to understand how business models are changing thanks to new technologies. It seemed like too much work and he didn’t want to.

The fact of the matter is it is a lot of work and many people don’t want to do it. However, it is not just business models that are changing thanks to technological innovation, there are also many disruptive macro-trends at play which we need to keep in mind as well. Understanding how the macro-trends mash up with everything else is not necessarily an everyday affair. It is mostly a one-time investment into how systems work together and then keeping up. This article gives a high-level overview of the key macro trends, how to mentally categorize them and then how to analyze them.

What is happening?

Lots is happening! From climate change to demographic change, to the cost-of-living crisis, to armed conflict and mass migration, to the digitization of manufacturing and supply chains and the rise of artificial intelligence and geopolitical shifts to name a few. All of these macro-trends converge with each other and reverberate across industries. The advances in artificial intelligence accelerate the creation of new business models, which also can result in technological unemployment. Global warming is affecting the reliability of crop harvests, increasing the severity and frequency of hurricanes, flooding and fire, and affecting the rising number of climate refugees. These factors in turn affect food security, are implicated in the rising costs of food products and availability, and put pressures on governments and infrastructure to bring in migrants fleeing environmental disaster. Geopolitical realignments are affecting supply chains of natural resources, digital and physical goods. No matter which way the contemporary macro-trends are looked at, we are witnessing a new chapter of the international arena emerge. And we need a way to make sense of it.

How do I mentally categorize what is happening?

Because there are so many macro-trends to keep up with, I like to arrange them into three buckets which I find helpful as I interpret and make sense of their developments. They are:

Each bucket offers a different way to approach the trends. For example, the crisis bucket is where things such as environmental disaster, armed conflict, terrorism and financial collapse would fall under. These are elements that require a crisis mindset to handle because they are crisis states with very serious and adverse ramifications that require immediate and close attention.

Items that fall under the new norms bucket benefit from a curiosity mindset and an understanding that the way things were done in the past is not as relevant (or no longer relevant) and the new norms and ways of doing things needs to be adopted and embraced. An example of this the demographic shift which is happening around the world titling populations towards older demographics. It is not just more common to live longer lives, but it is also more common to have fewer children than before. This is a new normal which individuals, society, governments and organizations will need to change to accommodate. Similarly, a new norm is the use of artificial intelligence. Some companies think that this is a technology they don’t need to adopt, but they would be like those in the year 2000 who said that their company does not need a website.

Items that fall under the transitionary bucket benefit from a growth mindset as they implicate an imminent or already on-going transition that needs to be managed. In her SxSW talk this year Amy Webb said that everyone alive today "Generation T" – T for transition because we are going through a technology super-cycle and the transition that will take a few decades is already underway. This includes the energy transition, the cognification of everything, new value changes and the growing digital economy to name a few items.

As I read the news, latest trends and technology innovation reports I categorize them into these buckets in my head so I can make sense of the contextual implications of these new developments.

How do I contextualize what is happening?

I personally see things through the lens of the systems of the digital economy. In the graphic below I show the many different systems at play in the current and growing digital economy. The many systems converge to create value. There are also converging verticals that play a role. I put as many as the image could hold but there are many other verticals that could be included.

In my advisory work I look at my client’s positioning and think about the converging macro-trends in relation to the digital economy systems that are at play. The reason the digital economy systems are so important is because this is squarely the industrial revolution that we are in and new and growing value is emanating from digital infrastructure.

If you are strategically looking to hedge your organization’s future during these rapidly changing times, here are three ways I can help you:

1. Consulting: reach out to explore the strategic advisory services I offer focusing on making sense of technology innovation and macro trends. Check out my Linkedin profile for the over hundred countless glowing reviews about my advisory work.
2. Board Advisor: if you are looking to diversify your board's thought leadership with complex systems thinking, convergence viewpoints, emerging technologies, a world view and a team player contact me.
3. Speaking & Workshops: if you’d like more of these kinds of technology convergence thoughts, my global speaking engagements on emerging technologies, the 4th industrial revolution, artificial intelligence and the importance of imagination in an era of AI have been well received with comments like "I wish I met Lydia sooner" and "I deeply admire her intelligence and humanity, and of her ability to challenge and explore how to make any enterprise more impactful and successful toward the greater good.” I also offer quarterly technology convergence awareness and exposure talks. Reach out to book me for a talk.

My forthcoming book is about the importance of imagination in business success and competitiveness called "Imagination Dilemma: Tools to overcome it and thrive through disruption." The main argument is that when technology can do everything for you, what is left is imagination - and that is the competitive advantage. You can sign up for updates here.